Tomorrow it may rain

Movement of pointshare ratings to www.pointshare.webs.com

2011-05-14T09:44:00.000-07:00

I am now using http://www.pointshare.webs.com/ to list the ratings of the pointsharr system i have also added NFL NBA NHL as well as college football and basketball.

Final 2010 Pointshare College Football Rankings

2011-01-11T15:15:00.000-08:00

Oregon finished number one despite their loss to Auburn. Although if Auburn had won by 12 points rather than 3 they would have been the number one. Who knows if Dyer's knee had touched the ground Oregon could have come back and won in OT. So having them 4 points better than Auburn is not outrageous.

In the FCS Delaware stayed number one despite losing to Eastern Washington in the final. James Madison came second due mainly to their defeat of Virginia Tech (No.13 in the FBS).

FBS rankings

Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent

1 Oregon 70.1

2 Auburn 66.1

3 Boise St 64.1

4 Stanford 63.3

5 TCU 61.7

6 Alabama 61.7

7 Ohio State 58.9

8 Arkansas 58.4

9 LSU 57.9

10 Wisconsin 57.1

11 Nevada 57.1

12 South Carolina 55.9

13 Virginia Tech 55.9

14 Oklahoma 54.9

15 Arizona St 53.5

16 Missouri 53.1

17 Nebraska 53.0

18 Florida St 52.7

19 Oklahoma St 52.7

20 Southern Cal 52.0

21 Iowa 51.9

22 North Carolina St 51.5

23 Mississippi St 51.1

24 Oregon St 51.0

25 California 50.8

26 Clemson 50.7

27 Texas A&M 50.2

28 San Diego St 50.2

29 West Virginia 49.9

30 Notre Dame 48.7

31 Michigan St 48.5

32 Arizona 48.1

33 Pittsburgh 47.9

34 Miami FL 47.9

35 Georgia 47.8

36 Florida 47.6

37 Air Force 47.3

38 Kentucky 46.5

39 North Carolina 45.8

40 Washington 45.5

41 Central Florida 45.4

42 Utah 44.8

43 Illinois 44.7

44 Maryland 44.6

45 Hawai`i 44.4

46 Tennessee 43.6

47 Mississippi 43.5

48 Tulsa 43.5

49 Navy 43.1

50 Boston College 42.8

51 Northern Illinois 42.6

52 South Florida 42.2

53 Louisville 41.7

54 Georgia Tech 41.4

55 Texas 41.2

56 Kansas St 41.1

57 Washington St 40.8

58 Connecticut 40.5

59 Southern Miss 40.3

60 Texas Tech 40.1

61 Syracuse 40.0

62 Brigham Young 39.6

63 Fresno St 39.3

64 Michigan 38.8

65 Iowa St 38.6

66 SMU 38.5

67 Penn State 38.5

68 Cincinnati 38.1

69 UCLA 38.0

70 Virginia 37.3

71 Troy 37.2

72 Colorado 37.0

73 Minnesota 36.3

74 Northwestern 36.2

75 East Carolina 36.2

76 Temple 36.1

77 Florida Int'l 35.0

78 Baylor 34.9

79 Utah St 34.6

80 Alabama-Birmingham 34.6

81 Houston 34.2

82 Duke 34.0

83 Army 33.8

84 Purdue 33.7

85 Rutgers 32.9

86 Miami OH 32.5

87 Louisiana Tech 32.4

88 Ohio U. 32.4

89 Arkansas St 32.4

90 Toledo 31.4

91 Indiana 31.2

92 Idaho 31.1

93 UTEP 30.0

94 Vanderbilt 29.8

95 Central Michigan 29.8

96 Marshall 29.5

97 Western Michigan 29.2

98 San José St 28.6

99 Wyoming 28.4

100 Wake Forest 28.2

101 Kent St 27.5

102 Kansas 27.4

103 Colorado St 26.8

104 Louisiana-Monroe 26.7

105 Bowling Green 26.3

106 Florida Atlantic 26.1

107 Rice 25.9

108 Middle Tennessee St 25.6

109 North Texas 24.0

110 Western Kentucky 24.0

111 Louisiana-Lafayette 22.9

112 Tulane 22.6

113 Ball St 22.4

114 UNLV 21.8

115 Buffalo 19.9

116 New Mexico 17.6

117 New Mexico St 15.8

118 Eastern Michigan 15.8

119 Memphis 14.5

120 Akron 12.1

FCS rankings

Rank Team pointspread equivalent

1 Delaware 45.3

2 James Madison 42.6

3 Villanova 42.1

4 William & Mary 41.6

5 New Hampshire 40.1

6 Georgia Southern 36.8

7 Eastern Washington 36.8

8 Massachusetts 35.1

9 Wofford 33.7

10 Montana St 33.5

11 Appalachian St 32.7

12 Western Illinois 32.2

13 North Dakota St 32.1

14 Northern Arizona 32.0

15 Sacramento St 31.7

16 Rhode Island 31.7

17 Jacksonville St 30.9

18 Pennsylvania 30.6

19 Chattanooga 30.4

20 South Dakota St 30.2

21 Southern Utah 29.7

22 Richmond 29.5

23 Liberty 29.3

24 Maine 29.3

25 Furman 29.0

26 Montana 28.8

27 Elon 28.5

28 Northern Iowa 27.6

29 Eastern Kentucky 26.2

30 SE Missouri St 25.9

31 Stephen F. Austin 25.5

32 Southern Illinois 25.1

33 Weber St 25.1

34 Missouri St 24.7

35 Cal Poly SLO 24.6

36 Lehigh 24.1

37 McNeese St 23.9

38 Old Dominion 23.8

39 Robert Morris 23.5

40 Murray St 23.4

41 North Dakota 23.3

42 South Dakota 23.3

43 Brown 23.1

44 Youngstown St 22.5

45 Harvard 22.2

46 Indiana St 22.2

47 Samford 22.0

48 UC-Davis 21.5

49 Dayton 21.3

50 Illinois St 20.2

51 Stony Brook 20.1

52 Coastal Carolina 20.0

53 Jacksonville FL 19.9

54 Northern Colorado 19.8

55 Central Arkansas 19.2

56 Tennessee Tech 19.0

57 Yale 18.4

58 Sam Houston St 18.2

59 Towson 18.0

60 Bryant 18.0

61 Texas St-San Marcos 18.0

62 Dartmouth 17.9

63 Albany NY 17.7

64 Tennessee-Martin 17.6

65 Duquesne 17.5

66 Grambling St 17.4

67 Fordham 17.2

68 Monmouth NJ 17.1

69 Central Conn St 16.8

70 Portland St 16.6

71 Jackson St 16.5

72 SE Louisiana St 16.1

73 Columbia 15.1

74 Colgate 14.4

75 Holy Cross 14.3

76 Bethune-Cookman 14.2

77 Lafayette 13.7

78 Texas Southern 13.5

79 Drake 13.1

80 Northwestern St 12.7

81 Eastern Illinois 12.5

82 Sacred Heart 12.5

83 Lamar 11.9

84 Tennessee St 11.7

85 Wagner 11.7

86 South Carolina St 11.7

87 Idaho St 11.6

88 Prairie View A&M 11.2

89 The Citadel 9.6

90 Georgetown DC 9.2

91 Alcorn St 9.0

92 Western Carolina 8.5

93 Gardner-Webb 8.5

94 San Diego 8.4

95 Nicholls St 8.2

96 Charleston Southern 6.6

97 Florida A&M 6.5

98 Alabama St 6.3

99 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 6.3

100 Princeton 6.2

101 d2 5.9

102 Hampton 5.2

103 St Francis PA 4.9

104 Campbell 4.8

105 VMI 4.5

106 Cornell NY 4.2

107 Presbyterian 4.1

108 Butler 4.0

109 Austin Peay 3.4

110 Morehead St 2.7

111 Marist 2.5

112 North Carolina Central 2.5

113 Norfolk St 2.5

114 Alabama A&M 2.0

115 Bucknell 1.4

116 Southern U. - 2.4

117 Morgan St - 2.4

118 Delaware St - 2.5

119 Davidson - 5.5

120 Howard - 8.2

121 North Carolina A&T - 8.4

122 Valparaiso - 15.0

123 Savannah St - 17.9

124 Mississippi Valley St - 19.5

Final 2010 NoahChain College football rankings

2011-01-11T15:07:00.000-08:00

Congratulations to Auburn who won the BCS championship and finished top of the NoahChain rankings.

1 Auburn 0.9465

2 Stanford 0.9414

3 Oregon 0.9405

4 Ohio state 0.9292

5 Arkansas 0.9159

6 Wisconsin 0.9063

7 TCU 0.9054

8 Alabama 0.8963

9 LSU 0.8955

10 Boise st 0.8883

11 Oklahoma 0.8871

12 Oklahoma st 0.8669

13 Texas A&M 0.8642

14 Michigan st 0.8465

15 Mississippi st 0.8311

16 Nebraska 0.8201

17 Nevada 0.8194

18 Virginia Tech 0.8163

19 Missouri 0.8076

20 South Carolina 0.7844

21 Utah 0.7604

22 Iowa 0.7415

23 Southern Cal 0.7415

24 Arizona 0.7381

25 Washington 0.7306

26 Florida 0.7204

27 Florida st 0.7181

28 Baylor 0.7147

29 Air Force 0.7057

30 Texas Tech 0.6960

31 Michigan 0.6917

32 Notre Dame 0.6808

33 Arizona St 0.6738

34 Oregon st 0.6653

35 North Carolina St 0.6418

36 Penn state 0.6295

37 North Carolina 0.6130

38 Hawai`i 0.6073

39 California 0.6048

40 Texas 0.6020

41 Northwestern 0.5952

42 Maryland 0.5933

43 Miami FL 0.5873

44 Navy 0.5771

45 Kansas st 0.5666

46 West Virginia 0.5592

47 Iowa st 0.5556

48 Georgia 0.5534

49 Tulsa 0.5533

50 Colorado 0.5533

51 Illinois 0.5520

52 Clemson 0.5479

53 UCLA 0.5478

54 San Diego st 0.5424

55 Central Florida 0.5410

56 Brigham Young 0.5361

57 Fresno st 0.5338

58 Boston College 0.5273

59 Pittsburgh 0.5202

60 Tennessee 0.5158

61 Kentucky 0.5092

62 Syracuse 0.4782

63 Minnesota 0.4679

64 Connecticut 0.4675

65 Northern Illinois 0.4532

66 Mississippi 0.4517

67 East Carolina 0.4481

68 South Florida 0.4425

69 SMU 0.4321

70 Georgia Tech 0.4294

71 Louisville 0.3903

72 Southern Miss 0.3888

73 Purdue 0.3765

74 Indiana 0.3763

75 Temple 0.3704

76 Kansas 0.3652

77 Miami OH 0.3377

78 Washington st 0.3294

79 Houston 0.3288

80 Virginia 0.3157

81 Duke 0.3095

82 Cincinnati 0.3051

83 Utah st 0.3045

84 Army 0.2916

85 Rice 0.2895

86 Idaho 0.2784

87 Toledo 0.2690

88 Rutgers 0.2625

89 Louisiana Tech 0.2553

90 Wake Forest 0.2486

91 Vanderbilt 0.2385

92 UTEP 0.2355

93 Wyoming 0.2322

94 Marshall 0.2321

95 Troy 0.2318

96 Tulane 0.2265

97 Ohio U. 0.2202

98 Florida Int'l 0.2084

99 Alabama-Birmingham 0.2065

100 Colorado st 0.2059

101 UNLV 0.2023

102 Kent st 0.1718

103 Middle Tennessee St 0.1613

104 Western Michigan 0.1598

105 Louisiana-Monroe 0.1418

106 Arkansas St 0.1307

107 Florida Atlantic 0.1275

108 San José St 0.1184

109 aa 0.1171

110 New Mexico 0.1151

111 New Mexico st 0.1119

112 Memphis 0.1007

113 North Texas 0.0929

114 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0888

115 Bowling Green 0.0742

116 Central Michigan 0.0725

117 Ball St 0.0714

118 Western Kentucky 0.0649

119 Eastern Michigan 0.0544

120 Buffalo 0.0447

121 Akron 0.0424

NFL power ratings and wildcard predictions

2011-01-07T08:13:00.000-08:00

Wildcard predictions
New Orleans over Settle by 7.5
Indy vs Jets is a pick
Ravens by 4 over KC
GB over Philly by 2.5

Regular season final power ratings
HFA 2.32

Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent

1 New England Patriots 51.43

2 Green Bay Packers 48.48

3 Pittsburgh Steelers 47.63

4 Baltimore Ravens 46.87

5 New York Jets 46.18

6 Atlanta Falcons 45.58

7 San Diego Chargers 43.84

8 Indianapolis Colts 43.57

9 Chicago Bears 43.57

10 Philadelphia Eagles 43.34

11 New Orleans Saints 43.18

12 Detroit Lions 41.15

13 New York Giants 41.08

14 Tennessee Titans 40.62

15 Cleveland Browns 40.58

16 Kansas City Chiefs 40.44

17 Miami Dolphins 40.32

18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40.19

19 Oakland Raiders 39.42

20 Houston Texans 39.37

21 Dallas Cowboys 39.22

22 Minnesota Vikings 39.21

23 Cincinnati Bengals 38.92

24 Washington Redskins 38.45

25 Jacksonville Jaguars 37.37

26 Buffalo Bills 36.80

27 St. Louis Rams 35.61

28 San Francisco 49ers 35.20

29 Denver Broncos 34.64

30 Seattle Seahawks 33.27

31 Arizona Cardinals 31.24

32 Carolina Panthers 27.88

Bowl predictions

2010-12-18T05:42:00.000-08:00

Using pointshare and Noahchain here are my picks in the espn bowl mania competition. I am also in the fox sports and Solid verbal pointspread pickem competitions using the pointshare pointspread equivalent to make the picks agaisnt the spread.

Pointshare
Confidence Pick Predicted winning margin

35 Boise St 19.2

34 Nevada 19

33 Oklahoma 12.9

32 Oregon 11.7

31 Nebraska 10.8

30 Brigham Young 9.3

29 Clemson 8.9

28 Mississippi St 8.1

27 Hawai`i 8

26 Alabama 7.9

25 Illinois 7.5

24 Maryland 7.4

23 TCU 7.3

22 Florida 6.4

21 San Diego St 6.4

20 Miami oh 5.9

19 South Carolina 5.7

18 Air Force 5.4

17 SMU 4.6

16 Stanford 4.6

15 Georgia 4

14 Texas Tech 3.8

13 Florida Int'l 3

12 LSU 2.8

11 Missouri 2.5

10 Louisville 2.4

9 North Carolina 2.4

8 Kansas St 2.3

7 West Virginia 2

6 Pittsburgh 1

5 Fresno St 0.8

4 Miami fl 0.5

3 Oklahoma St 0.4

2 Troy 0.4

1 Ohio State 0.1

Noah Chain
Confidence Pick

35 Oklahoma

34 Brigham Young

33 Kansas St

32 Nevada

31 Air Force

30 Toledo

29 Miami oh

28 Baylor

27 Missouri

26 Texas Tech

25 Oklahoma St

24 Maryland

23 Kentucky

22 SMU

21 Stanford

20 Nebraska

19 Ohio U

18 Boise St

17 Clemson

16 Notre Dame

15 Mississippi St

14 South Carolina

13 Fresno St

12 Hawai`i

11 Florida

10 Arkansas

9 Alabama

8 Southern Miss

7 North Carolina St

6 Texas A&M

5 TCU

4 Tennessee

3 Navy

2 Georgia

1 Oregon

Week 14 NFL rankings using pointshare

2010-12-18T05:33:00.000-08:00

THis includes the Week 15 Thursday game between the 49ers and Chargers.
Injuries and momentum are not taken into account only the results throughout the season.
HFA is 2.1 points

Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent

1 New England Patriots 50.1

2 Pittsburgh Steelers 47.3

3 Green Bay Packers 47.0

4 Baltimore Ravens 46.4

5 Atlanta Falcons 45.7

6 San Diego Chargers 45.6

7 New York Jets 44.8

8 Philadelphia Eagles 44.7

9 Indianapolis Colts 43.7

10 New Orleans Saints 43.4

11 New York Giants 43.1

12 Chicago Bears 42.3

13 Miami Dolphins 41.9

14 Cleveland Browns 41.9

15 Tennessee Titans 41.9

16 Kansas City Chiefs 41.0

17 Houston Texans 39.9

18 Detroit Lions 39.6

19 Jacksonville Jaguars 39.5

20 Dallas Cowboys 39.3

21 Oakland Raiders 39.1

22 Minnesota Vikings 38.7

23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38.6

24 Washington Redskins 38.3

25 Buffalo Bills 37.6

26 St. Louis Rams 37.2

27 Cincinnati Bengals 37.0

28 Denver Broncos 35.4

29 San Francisco 49ers 35.4

30 Seattle Seahawks 34.5

31 Arizona Cardinals 32.3

32 Carolina Panthers 28.5

Week 14 Pointshare

2010-12-05T14:58:00.000-08:00

Here they are Oregon are a clear number one but Auburn's big victory over South Carolina hasn't improved it's ranking by much and it is only in 5th place around 11.5 points behind Oregon.
With HFA at 3.1 Navy are 7 point favourites over army next week accoridng to this system.

Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent

1 Oregon 72.9

2 Boise St 64.8

3 TCU 62.9

4 Stanford 62.1

5 Auburn 61.2

6 Nevada 58.4

7 Alabama 57.9

8 Virginia Tech 57.5

9 Ohio State 57.0

10 Arkansas 56.9

11 Wisconsin 55.6

12 South Carolina 54.9

13 Nebraska 54.6

14 LSU 54.1

15 Arizona St 53.9

16 Oklahoma 53.7

17 Missouri 53.6

18 California 52.6

19 Southern Cal 52.5

20 Oregon St 52.1

21 Texas A&M 51.3

22 Iowa 51.1

23 Oklahoma St 50.6

24 Arizona 50.2

25 Michigan St 50.0

26 San Diego St 49.9

27 West Virginia 49.8

28 Florida St 49.2

29 Clemson 48.0

30 North Carolina St 47.8

31 Mississippi St 47.6

32 Miami FL 47.4

33 Hawai`i 47.4

34 Notre Dame 46.9

35 Air Force 46.7

36 Georgia 46.4

37 Pittsburgh 45.7

38 Utah 45.6

39 Florida 45.0

40 Kentucky 44.7

41 Illinois 43.8

42 Washington 43.8

43 Navy 43.5

44 North Carolina 43.5

45 Central Florida 42.4

46 Maryland 42.2

47 Texas 41.7

48 Georgia Tech 41.3

49 Washington St 41.2

50 Tennessee 41.1

51 Kansas St 41.1

52 Fresno St 41.0

53 Mississippi 41.0

54 Louisville 40.9

55 Connecticut 40.8

56 Northern Illinois 40.2

57 Texas Tech 40.0

58 Michigan 39.5

59 Tulsa 39.4

60 Boston College 39.4

61 South Florida 39.1

62 Brigham Young 38.9

63 Syracuse 38.8

64 Iowa St 38.7

65 Penn State 38.6

66 UCLA 38.6

67 Southern Miss 38.5

68 SMU 38.1

69 Colorado 37.7

70 Virginia 37.0

71 Cincinnati 36.6

72 Temple 36.4

73 Baylor 36.3

74 Northwestern 36.2

75 Minnesota 35.6

76 East Carolina 34.8

77 Troy 34.5

78 Utah St 34.4

79 Florida Int'l 34.3

80 Ohio U. 34.1

81 Purdue 33.7

82 Army 33.5

83 Duke 33.2

84 Louisiana Tech 32.8

85 Houston 32.7

86 Alabama-Birmingham 32.1

87 Rutgers 31.6

88 Idaho 31.5

89 Toledo 31.3

90 Miami OH 31.2

91 Arkansas St 30.6

92 Indiana 30.6

93 Central Michigan 30.0

94 UTEP 29.6

95 Marshall 28.8

96 Western Michigan 28.4

97 San José St 28.0

98 Vanderbilt 28.0

99 Wyoming 27.8

100 Kansas 27.7

101 Wake Forest 27.3

102 Kent St 27.0

103 Colorado St 26.7

104 Florida Atlantic 25.7

105 Middle Tennessee St 25.3

106 Bowling Green 25.0

107 Louisiana-Monroe 24.9

108 Rice 24.5

109 North Texas 22.7

110 Western Kentucky 22.3

111 Ball St 22.2

112 UNLV 21.8

113 Louisiana-Lafayette 21.6

114 Tulane 21.4

115 Buffalo 19.9

116 New Mexico 17.3

117 New Mexico St 15.9

118 Eastern Michigan 15.4

119 Memphis 13.3

120 Akron 11.5

FCS
1 Delaware 46.0

2 James Madison 44.0

3 Villanova 43.9

4 New Hampshire 42.6

5 William & Mary 42.6

6 Georgia Southern 38.6

7 Massachusetts 36.3

8 Appalachian St 35.8

9 Wofford 35.0

10 Rhode Island 33.2

11 Pennsylvania 32.0

12 Western Illinois 31.8

13 North Dakota St 31.3

14 Richmond 30.9

15 Maine 30.8

16 Montana St 30.7

17 Chattanooga 30.6

18 South Dakota St 30.4

19 Liberty 30.2

20 Elon 29.6

21 Eastern Washington 29.6

22 Furman 29.5

23 Northern Arizona 29.5

24 Jacksonville St 29.4

25 Sacramento St 28.4

26 Southern Utah 27.3

27 Northern Iowa 27.1

28 Montana 25.5

29 Eastern Kentucky 25.1

30 Lehigh 24.9

31 Southern Illinois 24.6

32 SE Missouri St 24.5

33 Stephen F. Austin 24.5

34 Old Dominion 24.4

35 Brown 24.4

36 Robert Morris 24.3

37 Missouri St 24.0

38 Samford 23.5

39 Harvard 23.4

40 Cal Poly SLO 23.3

41 Murray St 22.2

42 Youngstown St 22.2

43 South Dakota 22.0

44 Weber St 21.8

45 Indiana St 21.6

46 Dayton 21.6

47 North Dakota 21.2

48 McNeese St 21.1

49 Stony Brook 20.9

50 Coastal Carolina 20.6

51 Jacksonville FL 20.2

52 Illinois St 19.8

53 UC-Davis 19.8

54 Yale 19.7

55 Towson 19.6

56 Dartmouth 19.2

57 Albany NY 18.8

58 Bryant 18.4

59 Fordham 18.4

60 Duquesne 18.1

61 Monmouth NJ 17.9

62 Tennessee Tech 17.6

63 Central Conn St 17.5

64 Central Arkansas 17.3

65 Sam Houston St 16.7

66 Grambling St 16.5

67 Columbia 16.5

68 Tennessee-Martin 16.3

69 Northern Colorado 16.3

70 Texas St-San Marcos 16.3

71 Holy Cross 15.4

72 Colgate 15.4

73 Jackson St 15.4

74 Lafayette 14.8

75 SE Louisiana St 14.4

76 Bethune-Cookman 13.9

77 Portland St 13.9

78 Sacred Heart 13.3

79 Drake 13.0

80 Wagner 12.4

81 Texas Southern 12.2

82 South Carolina St 11.6

83 Eastern Illinois 11.4

84 Northwestern St 11.2

85 Lamar 10.9

86 The Citadel 10.6

87 Tennessee St 10.5

88 Georgetown DC 10.2

89 Prairie View A&M 10.0

90 Western Carolina 9.3

91 Idaho St 8.9

92 Gardner-Webb 8.6

93 San Diego 8.2

94 Alcorn St 7.5

95 Princeton 7.4

96 Nicholls St 6.6

97 Charleston Southern 6.3

98 Florida A&M 5.9

99 Alabama St 5.5

100 Cornell NY 5.4

101 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 5.3

102 St Francis PA 5.0

103 d2 4.9

104 Hampton 4.7

105 Campbell 4.4

106 VMI 4.4

107 Presbyterian 3.9

108 Marist 2.9

109 Morehead St 2.7

110 Butler 2.6

111 Bucknell 2.3

112 Austin Peay 2.3

113 Norfolk St 1.8

114 Alabama A&M 0.9

115 North Carolina Central - 0.0

116 Morgan St - 3.2

117 Delaware St - 3.3

118 Southern U. - 3.5

119 Davidson - 5.4

120 Howard - 8.8

121 North Carolina A&T - 9.3

122 Valparaiso - 14.2

123 Savannah St - 18.9

124 Mississippi Valley St - 20.6

Week 14 NoahChain rankings

2010-12-05T14:54:00.000-08:00

Here they are the final rankings of the regular season with Oregon and Auburn one and two

1 Oregon 0.9317

2 Auburn 0.9241

3 Stanford 0.9204

4 Oklahoma 0.9108

5 Arkansas 0.9094

6 TCU 0.8960

7 Texas A&M 0.8919

8 Oklahoma st 0.8833

9 Wisconsin 0.8703

10 Ohio state 0.8671

11 Missouri 0.8658

12 LSU 0.8634

13 Alabama 0.8629

14 Boise st 0.8613

15 Nebraska 0.8513

16 Michigan st 0.8243

17 Nevada 0.7919

18 Virginia Tech 0.7919

19 South Carolina 0.7864

20 Mississippi st 0.7823

21 Baylor 0.7574

22 Utah 0.7505

23 Texas Tech 0.7416

24 Southern Cal 0.7313

25 Washington 0.7233

26 Arizona 0.7163

27 Kansas st 0.7057

28 Florida st 0.6947

29 Air Force 0.6894

30 Michigan 0.6839

31 Florida 0.6839

32 Texas 0.6723

33 Arizona St 0.6686

34 Iowa 0.6658

35 Notre Dame 0.6595

36 Oregon st 0.6581

37 Penn state 0.6293

38 Iowa st 0.6236

39 Hawai`i 0.6199

40 California 0.6118

41 Tennessee 0.6049

42 Colorado 0.6013

43 North Carolina St 0.5963

44 Kentucky 0.5845

45 UCLA 0.5842

46 North Carolina 0.5835

47 Georgia 0.5827

48 Northwestern 0.5735

49 Maryland 0.5723

50 Navy 0.5693

51 West Virginia 0.5670

52 Central Florida 0.5629

53 Fresno st 0.5599

54 Miami FL 0.5552

55 Tulsa 0.5544

56 San Diego st 0.5489

57 Illinois 0.5478

58 Brigham Young 0.5387

59 Clemson 0.5295

60 Boston College 0.5019

61 Northern Illinois 0.4713

62 Mississippi 0.4711

63 Pittsburgh 0.4522

64 East Carolina 0.4381

65 SMU 0.4370

66 Minnesota 0.4369

67 Connecticut 0.4324

68 Georgia Tech 0.4285

69 South Florida 0.4226

70 Toledo 0.4158

71 Kansas 0.4088

72 Temple 0.4077

73 Syracuse 0.4060

74 Purdue 0.4033

75 Southern Miss 0.3933

76 Indiana 0.3853

77 Miami OH 0.3780

78 Louisville 0.3625

79 Washington st 0.3420

80 Houston 0.3349

81 Utah st 0.3229

82 Army 0.3084

83 Duke 0.3052

84 Ohio U. 0.3048

85 Virginia 0.3033

86 Cincinnati 0.2970

87 Idaho 0.2969

88 Rice 0.2837

89 Louisiana Tech 0.2658

90 Vanderbilt 0.2583

91 Wake Forest 0.2508

92 Wyoming 0.2484

93 Rutgers 0.2433

94 Marshall 0.2409

95 UTEP 0.2357

96 Colorado st 0.2276

97 Tulane 0.2246

98 UNLV 0.2191

99 Kent st 0.2170

100 Western Michigan 0.2037

101 Alabama-Birmingham 0.1918

102 Troy 0.1819

103 Florida Int'l 0.1598

104 Middle Tennessee St 0.1295

105 San José St 0.1235

106 New Mexico 0.1211

107 New Mexico st 0.1182

108 aa 0.1164

109 Louisiana-Monroe 0.1127

110 Ball St 0.1060

111 Arkansas St 0.1036

112 Bowling Green 0.1019

113 Florida Atlantic 0.1007

114 Central Michigan 0.0997

115 Memphis 0.0910

116 Eastern Michigan 0.0832

117 Buffalo 0.0768

118 North Texas 0.0728

119 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0705

120 Akron 0.0702

121 Western Kentucky 0.0526

Week 13 Pointshare rankings for FBS and FCS

2010-11-28T09:11:00.000-08:00

Here they are
HFA is 3.1 points
Oregon and Boise are still number 1 and 2 despite Boise's close loss.
Auburn were predicted to lose by 1 to Alabama so there close win wasn't much better than expected so it hasn't improved their position by much.

FBS

Rank Team Pointspread equivalent
1 Oregon 72.8

2 Boise St 64.3

3 TCU 63.0

4 Stanford 62.1

5 Auburn 60.3

6 Nevada 58.3

7 Alabama 57.8

8 Arkansas 57.1

9 Ohio State 56.9

10 Virginia Tech 56.6

11 South Carolina 56.1

12 Wisconsin 55.6

13 Nebraska 55.5

14 Arizona St 53.9

15 LSU 53.8

16 Missouri 53.8

17 Oklahoma 53.4

18 California 52.5

19 Southern Cal 52.3

20 Oregon St 52.2

21 Texas A&M 51.5

22 Iowa 51.2

23 Oklahoma St 50.9

24 Arizona 50.2

25 Michigan St 50.0

26 San Diego St 50.0

27 Florida St 49.9

28 West Virginia 49.6

29 North Carolina St 47.7

30 Clemson 47.7

31 Mississippi St 47.3

32 Miami FL 47.2

33 Hawai`i 47.2

34 Notre Dame 46.8

35 Air Force 46.6

36 Georgia 46.5

37 Utah 45.7

38 Pittsburgh 45.2

39 Florida 44.8

40 Kentucky 44.7

41 Illinois 44.1

42 North Carolina 43.7

43 Washington 43.3

44 Navy 43.1

45 Texas 42.3

46 Maryland 42.1

47 Northern Illinois 41.8

48 Central Florida 41.7

49 Washington St 41.7

50 Kansas St 41.3

51 Tennessee 41.2

52 Louisville 40.9

53 Fresno St 40.9

54 Mississippi 40.9

55 Georgia Tech 40.8

56 Connecticut 40.3

57 Texas Tech 40.2

58 South Florida 39.6

59 Michigan 39.5

60 Iowa St 39.4

61 Tulsa 39.4

62 Boston College 39.4

63 UCLA 39.2

64 Syracuse 38.9

65 Brigham Young 38.9

66 SMU 38.6

67 Penn State 38.5

68 Southern Miss 38.3

69 Colorado 37.9

70 Cincinnati 37.4

71 Virginia 36.8

72 Baylor 36.6

73 Temple 36.3

74 Northwestern 36.2

75 Minnesota 35.7

76 Utah St 35.2

77 Florida Int'l 35.2

78 East Carolina 34.6

79 Troy 33.9

80 Purdue 33.7

81 Army 33.3

82 Houston 32.8

83 Duke 32.8

84 Ohio U. 32.8

85 Louisiana Tech 32.5

86 Idaho 32.1

87 Rutgers 32.0

88 Alabama-Birmingham 32.0

89 Toledo 30.8

90 Indiana 30.6

91 Arkansas St 30.4

92 UTEP 29.8

93 Central Michigan 29.6

94 Marshall 28.6

95 Miami OH 28.5

96 Western Michigan 28.4

97 Vanderbilt 28.2

98 San José St 27.9

99 Wyoming 27.8

100 Kansas 27.8

101 Florida Atlantic 27.1

102 Wake Forest 27.0

103 Colorado St 26.8

104 Kent St 26.2

105 Louisiana-Monroe 25.0

106 Rice 24.6

107 Bowling Green 24.5

108 Middle Tennessee St 23.3

109 North Texas 22.6

110 Western Kentucky 22.5

111 UNLV 22.4

112 Ball St 22.2

113 Tulane 21.5

114 Louisiana-Lafayette 21.4

115 Buffalo 19.7

116 New Mexico 17.4

117 New Mexico St 16.2

118 Eastern Michigan 14.6

119 Memphis 12.8

120 Akron 10.7

FCS rankings

1 Delaware 46.4

2 William & Mary 44.8

3 Villanova 44.0

4 James Madison 43.8

5 New Hampshire 42.8

6 Massachusetts 36.9

7 Rhode Island 33.6

8 Montana St 33.6

9 Georgia Southern 32.7

10 Appalachian St 32.6

11 Pennsylvania 32.3

12 Wofford 31.5

13 Maine 31.3

14 Western Illinois 31.0

15 Richmond 30.8

16 Northern Arizona 30.6

17 South Dakota St 30.5

18 Liberty 30.1

19 Eastern Washington 29.4

20 Sacramento St 29.4

21 Jacksonville St 29.2

22 North Dakota St 28.9

23 Furman 28.0

24 Chattanooga 27.8

25 Southern Utah 27.7

26 Elon 27.1

27 Stephen F. Austin 26.9

28 Montana 26.6

29 Northern Iowa 26.6

30 SE Missouri St 26.0

31 Old Dominion 25.9

32 Lehigh 25.4

33 Eastern Kentucky 25.0

34 Brown 24.7

35 Robert Morris 24.3

36 Cal Poly SLO 23.8

37 Southern Illinois 23.8

38 Harvard 23.8

39 Missouri St 23.2

40 Weber St 22.8

41 North Dakota 22.2

42 Murray St 22.1

43 South Dakota 22.1

44 Dayton 21.4

45 Youngstown St 21.4

46 McNeese St 21.3

47 Indiana St 20.9

48 Stony Brook 20.9

49 Jacksonville FL 20.7

50 UC-Davis 20.3

51 Yale 20.0

52 Coastal Carolina 19.9

53 Towson 19.6

54 Dartmouth 19.5

55 Albany NY 19.2

56 Samford 19.1

57 Illinois St 18.9

58 Fordham 18.8

59 Bryant 18.4

60 Duquesne 18.3

61 Monmouth NJ 18.1

62 Tennessee Tech 17.8

63 Northern Colorado 17.8

64 Central Conn St 17.6

65 Central Arkansas 17.4

66 Texas St-San Marcos 17.1

67 Sam Houston St 17.0

68 Columbia 16.7

69 Tennessee-Martin 16.5

70 Grambling St 15.8

71 Holy Cross 15.8

72 Colgate 15.7

73 Portland St 15.2

74 Lafayette 15.1

75 Bethune-Cookman 14.9

76 Jackson St 14.8

77 SE Louisiana St 14.6

78 Sacred Heart 13.4

79 Drake 13.0

80 Wagner 12.6

81 Texas Southern 11.4

82 Eastern Illinois 11.3

83 Northwestern St 11.3

84 Tennessee St 11.0

85 Idaho St 10.6

86 Georgetown DC 10.5

87 South Carolina St 10.0

88 Prairie View A&M 9.2

89 Gardner-Webb 8.5

90 San Diego 8.3

91 Lamar 8.2

92 Princeton 7.8

93 The Citadel 7.5

94 Western Carolina 6.7

95 Alcorn St 6.7

96 Florida A&M 6.2

97 Nicholls St 6.2

98 Cornell NY 5.8

99 St Francis PA 5.3

100 Alabama St 4.7

101 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 4.7

102 Hampton 4.6

103 Charleston Southern 4.3

104 VMI 4.0

105 Campbell 3.7

106 Presbyterian 3.4

107 d2 3.1

108 Marist 2.8

109 Bucknell 2.6

110 Morehead St 2.5

111 Austin Peay 2.1

112 Butler 2.0

113 Norfolk St 1.2

114 Alabama A&M 0.1

115 North Carolina Central - 1.9

116 Delaware St - 4.0

117 Southern U. - 4.2

118 Morgan St - 4.4

119 Davidson - 5.6

120 Howard - 9.4

121 North Carolina A&T - 9.9

122 Valparaiso - 15.1

123 Mississippi Valley St - 21.4

124 Savannah St - 22.1

Week 13 Noah Chain ratings

2010-11-28T09:07:00.000-08:00

Here they are Oregon are number 1 with Stanford number 2
Scores courtesy of Peter Wolfe

1 Oregon 0.9189

2 Stanford 0.9123

3 Auburn 0.9082

4 Arkansas 0.8976

5 Oklahoma 0.8956

6 TCU 0.8889

7 Texas A&M 0.8858

8 Oklahoma st 0.8823

9 Wisconsin 0.8628

10 Ohio state 0.8627

11 Missouri 0.8610

12 Nebraska 0.8548

13 Alabama 0.8535

14 LSU 0.8493

15 Boise st 0.8348

16 Michigan st 0.8286

17 South Carolina 0.7754

18 Virginia Tech 0.7711

19 Mississippi st 0.7671

20 Nevada 0.7597

21 Baylor 0.7547

22 Arizona 0.7518

23 Utah 0.7447

24 Texas Tech 0.7417

25 Washington 0.7059

26 Kansas st 0.7025

27 Florida st 0.6986

28 Southern Cal 0.6983

29 Michigan 0.6940

30 Iowa 0.6932

31 Air Force 0.6828

32 Texas 0.6816

33 Florida 0.6717

34 Oregon st 0.6561

35 Penn state 0.6508

36 Notre Dame 0.6505

37 Iowa st 0.6298

38 UCLA 0.6115

39 Northwestern 0.6040

40 California 0.6020

41 Colorado 0.5982

42 Arizona St 0.5963

43 Illinois 0.5945

44 Tennessee 0.5940

45 North Carolina St 0.5909

46 Hawai`i 0.5889

47 North Carolina 0.5885

48 Georgia 0.5792

49 Maryland 0.5790

50 Kentucky 0.5781

51 Miami FL 0.5727

52 Navy 0.5689

53 Northern Illinois 0.5672

54 Tulsa 0.5607

55 West Virginia 0.5547

56 San Diego st 0.5482

57 Clemson 0.5366

58 Central Florida 0.5299

59 Brigham Young 0.5258

60 Boston College 0.5056

61 Fresno st 0.4824

62 South Florida 0.4740

63 Minnesota 0.4736

64 SMU 0.4569

65 Mississippi 0.4543

66 East Carolina 0.4429

67 Toledo 0.4390

68 Georgia Tech 0.4369

69 Pittsburgh 0.4337

70 Purdue 0.4331

71 Temple 0.4233

72 Indiana 0.4227

73 Kansas 0.4138

74 Connecticut 0.4092

75 Syracuse 0.4013

76 Southern Miss 0.3924

77 Louisville 0.3659

78 Miami OH 0.3538

79 Washington st 0.3522

80 Houston 0.3426

81 Utah st 0.3228

82 Army 0.3206

83 Duke 0.3130

84 Cincinnati 0.3098

85 Virginia 0.3090

86 Ohio U. 0.3022

87 Idaho 0.3001

88 Rice 0.2895

89 Louisiana Tech 0.2765

90 Vanderbilt 0.2611

91 Wake Forest 0.2590

92 Wyoming 0.2511

93 Rutgers 0.2470

94 Marshall 0.2423

95 UTEP 0.2404

96 Colorado st 0.2347

97 UNLV 0.2294

98 Tulane 0.2272

99 Kent st 0.2242

100 Western Michigan 0.2214

101 Florida Int'l 0.1995

102 Alabama-Birmingham 0.1964

103 Troy 0.1852

104 San José St 0.1431

105 New Mexico 0.1271

106 New Mexico st 0.1252

107 Louisiana-Monroe 0.1237

108 Florida Atlantic 0.1217

109 aa 0.1192

110 Ball St 0.1166

111 Middle Tennessee St 0.1156

112 Arkansas St 0.1134

113 Central Michigan 0.1097

114 Bowling Green 0.1075

115 Eastern Michigan 0.0895

116 Memphis 0.0858

117 Buffalo 0.0806

118 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0797

119 North Texas 0.0785

120 Akron 0.0764

121 Western Kentucky 0.0601

Week 12 Pointshare standings

2010-11-21T11:17:00.000-08:00

Here they are home field advantage is 3.2 points.
The FBS has Oregon 4 points better than Boise and they in turn are 5 points better than TCU.
In the FCS the CAA dominates probably due to James Madison's defeat of Virginia Tech.

home field advantage is 3.2 points

FBS

Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent

1 Oregon 72.4

2 Boise St 68.4

3 TCU 63.5

4 Stanford 60.7

5 Auburn 59.7

6 Virginia Tech 58.8

7 Alabama 58.0

8 Ohio State 57.0

9 Arkansas 56.4

10 Wisconsin 55.4

11 Oregon St 55.1

12 South Carolina 55.1

13 Nebraska 55.1

14 Nevada 54.3

15 LSU 54.0

16 Arizona St 53.7

17 California 53.3

18 Missouri 53.1

19 Southern Cal 52.9

20 Oklahoma St 52.6

21 Iowa 52.5

22 Oklahoma 51.9

23 Texas A&M 51.1

24 Arizona 51.0

25 Michigan St 50.0

26 North Carolina St 49.9

27 San Diego St 49.8

28 Miami FL 49.8

29 Clemson 49.8

30 Florida St 49.7

31 Pittsburgh 47.8

32 West Virginia 47.2

33 Mississippi St 46.9

34 Utah 46.7

35 Georgia 46.2

36 Florida 46.1

37 Air Force 45.8

38 Notre Dame 45.1

39 North Carolina 45.1

40 Kentucky 45.1

41 Hawai`i 44.6

42 Illinois 44.3

43 Georgia Tech 42.7

44 Central Florida 42.7

45 Washington St 42.5

46 Navy 42.4

47 Texas 42.0

48 Washington 42.0

49 Northern Illinois 41.8

50 Kansas St 41.8

51 Mississippi 41.1

52 UCLA 41.1

53 Maryland 41.0

54 Louisville 40.8

55 Michigan 40.7

56 Tennessee 40.0

57 Texas Tech 39.7

58 Southern Miss 39.3

59 Iowa St 39.2

60 Connecticut 39.2

61 Fresno St 39.2

62 Syracuse 39.2

63 Virginia 39.2

64 Boston College 39.1

65 Tulsa 38.7

66 Penn State 38.6

67 Temple 38.3

68 Cincinnati 38.3

69 SMU 38.2

70 Northwestern 38.2

71 Colorado 38.1

72 South Florida 37.3

73 Baylor 36.8

74 Brigham Young 36.7

75 East Carolina 36.5

76 Ohio U. 35.4

77 Florida Int'l 35.3

78 Troy 34.9

79 Purdue 34.0

80 Houston 33.5

81 Rutgers 33.3

82 Utah St 33.0

83 Duke 32.9

84 Minnesota 32.9

85 Army 32.5

86 Alabama-Birmingham 32.5

87 Louisiana Tech 31.6

88 Central Michigan 30.9

89 Toledo 30.7

90 Indiana 30.7

91 Arkansas St 30.3

92 Idaho 29.7

93 UTEP 29.4

94 Vanderbilt 29.2

95 Kansas 29.0

96 Florida Atlantic 28.4

97 Marshall 27.8

98 Wyoming 27.2

99 San José St 27.1

100 Western Michigan 26.9

101 Colorado St 26.5

102 Bowling Green 26.3

103 Wake Forest 26.3

104 Louisiana-Monroe 25.7

105 Miami OH 25.0

106 Rice 24.5

107 Kent St 23.2

108 Ball St 23.0

109 North Texas 22.3

110 Tulane 22.3

111 Western Kentucky 22.2

112 UNLV 21.8

113 Louisiana-Lafayette 21.8

114 Buffalo 21.6

115 Middle Tennessee St 20.5

116 New Mexico 17.6

117 New Mexico St 15.6

118 Eastern Michigan 15.6

119 Memphis 11.9

120 Akron 8.5

FCS

1 Delaware 48.2

2 William & Mary 46.6

3 James Madison 45.9

4 Villanova 45.8

5 New Hampshire 44.7

6 Massachusetts 38.7

7 Rhode Island 35.4

8 Pennsylvania 33.9

9 Montana St 33.8

10 Maine 33.2

11 Appalachian St 32.7

12 Richmond 32.6

13 Georgia Southern 32.6

14 Liberty 32.1

15 Wofford 31.5

16 Western Illinois 30.9

17 Northern Arizona 30.5

18 South Dakota St 30.4

19 Jacksonville St 29.4

20 Robert Morris 29.2

21 Sacramento St 29.1

22 Eastern Washington 28.6

23 North Dakota St 27.8

24 Old Dominion 27.7

25 Furman 27.7

26 Chattanooga 27.7

27 Stephen F. Austin 27.6

28 Northern Iowa 27.4

29 Southern Utah 27.4

30 Elon 27.3

31 Montana 26.5

32 Brown 26.3

33 SE Missouri St 26.2

34 Eastern Kentucky 25.1

35 Lehigh 25.1

36 Harvard 25.1

37 Dayton 24.9

38 Cal Poly SLO 24.0

39 Southern Illinois 23.9

40 Missouri St 23.1

41 Weber St 22.7

42 Jacksonville FL 22.6

43 Stony Brook 22.4

44 Murray St 22.3

45 North Dakota 22.1

46 Youngstown St 21.7

47 McNeese St 21.5

48 Yale 21.5

49 Towson 21.5

50 Coastal Carolina 21.4

51 Albany NY 21.4

52 Bryant 21.3

53 Dartmouth 21.1

54 Monmouth NJ 21.0

55 Duquesne 20.9

56 South Dakota 20.8

57 Indiana St 20.8

58 Central Conn St 20.3

59 Fordham 20.1

60 UC-Davis 20.0

61 Samford 19.1

62 Illinois St 18.6

63 Columbia 18.3

64 Tennessee Tech 18.1

65 Northern Colorado 17.8

66 Central Arkansas 17.6

67 Sam Houston St 17.4

68 Texas St-San Marcos 17.3

69 Colgate 17.2

70 Holy Cross 17.2

71 Tennessee-Martin 16.7

72 Bethune-Cookman 16.5

73 Lafayette 16.5

74 Sacred Heart 16.3

75 Grambling St 16.0

76 Jackson St 15.4

77 Wagner 15.1

78 Drake 15.1

79 Portland St 15.1

80 SE Louisiana St 15.0

81 South Carolina St 12.4

82 Texas Southern 12.1

83 Georgetown DC 12.1

84 Eastern Illinois 11.8

85 Northwestern St 11.5

86 Tennessee St 11.3

87 San Diego 10.7

88 Idaho St 10.3

89 Prairie View A&M 10.0

90 Gardner-Webb 9.5

91 Princeton 8.9

92 Lamar 7.9

93 The Citadel 7.7

94 Florida A&M 7.6

95 St Francis PA 7.5

96 Alcorn St 7.3

97 Cornell NY 7.3

98 Western Carolina 6.8

99 Alabama St 6.5

100 Nicholls St 6.4

101 Hampton 6.2

102 Campbell 5.9

103 Morehead St 5.4

104 Marist 5.4

105 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 5.2

106 Presbyterian 5.0

107 VMI 4.9

108 Charleston Southern 4.9

109 Bucknell 4.3

110 Butler 4.0

111 d2 3.6

112 Norfolk St 2.5

113 Austin Peay 2.2

114 Alabama A&M 0.7

115 North Carolina Central -0.7

116 Delaware St -2.6

117 Southern U. -2.7

118 Davidson -3.2

119 Morgan St -3.7

120 Howard -8.3

121 North Carolina A&T -8.7

122 Valparaiso -12.9

123 Savannah St -20.7

124 Mississippi Valley St -20.7

Week 12 Noah Chain ratings

2010-11-21T11:08:00.000-08:00

Here they are scores courtesy of Peter Wolfe.

1 Oregon 0.8841

2 Stanford 0.8834

3 Oklahoma st 0.8801

4 TCU 0.8703

5 Auburn 0.8686

6 Oklahoma 0.8631

7 Texas A&M 0.8610

8 Arkansas 0.8465

9 Nebraska 0.8428

10 Missouri 0.8412

11 Boise st 0.8393

12 LSU 0.8352

13 Alabama 0.8160

14 Wisconsin 0.8156

15 Ohio state 0.8154

16 Michigan st 0.7913

17 Arizona 0.7561

18 Virginia Tech 0.7535

19 Baylor 0.7512

20 South Carolina 0.7400

21 Texas Tech 0.7286

22 Iowa 0.7268

23 Southern Cal 0.7268

24 Mississippi st 0.7161

25 Utah 0.7100

26 Kansas st 0.7062

27 Texas 0.6876

28 Florida st 0.6823

29 Florida 0.6773

30 Nevada 0.6754

31 Michigan 0.6732

32 Washington 0.6725

33 Air Force 0.6596

34 Oregon st 0.6533

35 UCLA 0.6450

36 California 0.6422

37 North Carolina St 0.6369

38 Iowa st 0.6367

39 Penn state 0.6349

40 Miami FL 0.6186

41 North Carolina 0.6104

42 Colorado 0.6102

43 Kentucky 0.5919

44 Northwestern 0.5903

45 Hawai`i 0.5848

46 Notre Dame 0.5788

47 Illinois 0.5748

48 Tennessee 0.5665

49 Clemson 0.5654

50 Central Florida 0.5651

51 Navy 0.5636

52 San Diego st 0.5470

53 Maryland 0.5427

54 Arizona St 0.5404

55 Brigham Young 0.5369

56 Georgia 0.5330

57 Northern Illinois 0.5304

58 Tulsa 0.5248

59 West Virginia 0.5242

60 Temple 0.5002

61 Mississippi 0.4954

62 East Carolina 0.4941

63 Boston College 0.4909

64 Fresno st 0.4899

65 Georgia Tech 0.4898

66 Southern Miss 0.4673

67 Pittsburgh 0.4628

68 Kansas 0.4533

69 Purdue 0.4316

70 South Florida 0.4275

71 SMU 0.4235

72 Connecticut 0.4194

73 Syracuse 0.4156

74 Toledo 0.4153

75 Indiana 0.4063

76 Minnesota 0.3903

77 Washington st 0.3818

78 Louisville 0.3668

79 Ohio U. 0.3658

80 Army 0.3596

81 Duke 0.3567

82 Cincinnati 0.3566

83 Virginia 0.3546

84 Houston 0.3538

85 Miami OH 0.3508

86 Utah st 0.3507

87 Vanderbilt 0.3470

88 Idaho 0.3302

89 Louisiana Tech 0.3201

90 Rice 0.2962

91 Rutgers 0.2900

92 Tulane 0.2875

93 Wake Forest 0.2864

94 Colorado st 0.2604

95 Wyoming 0.2594

96 UNLV 0.2585

97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.2530

98 UTEP 0.2522

99 Marshall 0.2498

100 Florida Int'l 0.2318

101 Troy 0.2198

102 Western Michigan 0.2063

103 Kent st 0.1992

104 San José St 0.1932

105 Louisiana-Monroe 0.1826

106 Florida Atlantic 0.1680

107 New Mexico st 0.1597

108 New Mexico 0.1509

109 Arkansas St 0.1453

110 aa 0.1446

111 Bowling Green 0.1379

112 Central Michigan 0.1348

113 Ball St 0.1322

114 Buffalo 0.1196

115 Middle Tennessee St 0.1144

116 Eastern Michigan 0.1134

117 Memphis 0.1069

118 North Texas 0.1010

119 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0892

120 Western Kentucky 0.0875

121 Akron 0.0809

NEW ranking system Pointshare MOV for FBS and FCS College football teams.

2010-11-14T12:24:00.000-08:00

Pointshare MOV college football rating system

This system uses margin of victory and takes venue into account. Therefore it is probably not BCS compliant but it may reflect the strength of teams better. The system combines a game outcome function which is similar approach to the Massey MOV and Sauceda rating systems (although I don’t know how their GOFs are derived) but also uses a method similar to the Random walker method to determine the overall rating.

Each game score is converted to a performance level or Game outcome function depending on the score. This is done by determining the likelihood of a teams true scoring rate in a game given the number of points it actually scored and then determining how likely the winning team would be to win a re-match given the distribution of true scoring rates of it and its opponents. (See table in the document on google docs linked on the right side panel of my blog.)

Game scores are kindly provided by Peter Wolfe on his website.

When two teams play their ratings are pooled and then redistributed based on the game outcome. So if a 100 rating team plays a 200 rating team but achieves a game outcome of 40% their new rating is 120 (40% of 100+200) and their opponent drops to 180 despite winning the game. I think this is a similar method to the random walker method except they use a single value for all games regardless of the score.

A teams overall rating is calculated iteratively and is equal to its average performance against all opponents plus the sum of the product of each opponents rating by the game performance against each opponent divided by all games.

R(new)= R(old)*average GOF+ (Ra*GOFa + Rb*GOFb+…..+Rn*GOFn)/n

Where GOFa is the teams game outcome function against team a and Ra is team A’s old rating.

This converges very quickly for the c.240 teams in the FBS and FCS. Each team starts with a rating of 100
Home field advantage

In college football the GOF of home teams is approximately 1.4 times that of the away team in CONFERENCE games. Non Conference games are ignored as strong teams tend to play at home against weaker teams. So the GOF for home teams are reduced to reflect this which means a narrow win at home will see a team have an adjusted GOF below 50%.
Conversion to pointspread equivalent.

I noticed that the relationship between the odds of winning (moneyline) and the point spread is 9*lnODDS=-p where lnODDS is the natural log of the ratio of odds or ratings in this case and p is the pointspread. Therefore the rating can be converted to a pointspread equivalent quite easily. This also means that the 1.4 advantage home teams have translates to 3 points which is similar to the usual convention for HFA.

Here are the ratings and pointspread equivalent for teams in the FBS and FCS (scroll down) with all division 2 or lower teams grouped together as D2.

The top two teams are Oregon and TCU with Boise 3rd and Stanford 4th ahead of Auburn.

FBS Team Rating Pointspread equivalent

1 Oregon 5184.345 77.6

2 TCU 1783.151 67.9

3 Boise St 1480.828 66.2

4 Stanford 683.2115 59.2

5 Auburn 528.369 56.9

6 Oregon St 474.0888 55.9

7 Virginia Tech 468.21 55.8

8 Arizona St 459.5909 55.6

9 Nebraska 423.9733 54.9

10 Alabama 420.518 54.8

11 Iowa 410.2021 54.6

12 Ohio State 396.6969 54.3

13 Southern Cal 385.2052 54.0

14 Wisconsin 384.0203 54.0

15 Nevada 354.8422 53.3

16 Arkansas 334.2194 52.7

17 LSU 331.9776 52.7

18 Arizona 295.5589 51.6

19 South Carolina 266.8526 50.7

20 Oklahoma St 256.8332 50.3

21 Missouri 245.3054 49.9

22 California 239.2264 49.7

23 Michigan St 231.0137 49.4

24 Miami FL 227.4956 49.2

25 Oklahoma 223.3273 49.1

26 North Carolina St 215.8896 48.8

27 Florida St 211.0954 48.6

28 Clemson 203.5851 48.2

29 Texas A&M 184.1575 47.3

30 Mississippi St 183.0386 47.3

31 Pittsburgh 179.9845 47.1

32 Utah 176.6787 47.0

33 Florida 156.513 45.9

34 North Carolina 156.0809 45.8

35 Georgia 139.3473 44.8

36 Central Florida 138.7531 44.8

37 Georgia Tech 122.221 43.6

38 Air Force 120.7216 43.5

39 Hawai`i 113.9912 43.0

40 West Virginia 113.0832 42.9

41 San Diego St 112.1459 42.8

42 Kansas St 111.8281 42.8

43 Kentucky 110.7044 42.7

44 UCLA 107.7623 42.5

45 Illinois 107.5116 42.4

46 Texas 106.27 42.3

47 Washington 102.5637 42.0

48 Louisville 97.99605 41.6

49 Navy 93.60627 41.2

50 Virginia 92.61492 41.1

51 Iowa St 90.82699 40.9

52 Notre Dame 87.9878 40.6

53 Michigan 84.28704 40.2

54 Texas Tech 75.56445 39.2

55 Maryland 74.12913 39.1

56 Syracuse 70.86747 38.7

57 Baylor 70.79884 38.7

58 Mississippi 70.72381 38.6

59 Washington St 68.17595 38.3

60 SMU 67.47738 38.2

61 Northern Illinois 66.71846 38.1

62 Cincinnati 63.40854 37.7

63 Penn State 62.49354 37.5

64 Boston College 61.75472 37.4

65 Troy 61.69796 37.4

66 Temple 60.47248 37.2

67 Tulsa 60.42331 37.2

68 Fresno St 55.32269 36.4

69 Tennessee 52.34927 35.9

70 Houston 49.41053 35.4

71 East Carolina 49.10417 35.3

72 South Florida 45.52647 34.6

73 Colorado 41.79995 33.9

74 Brigham Young 41.65948 33.8

75 Indiana 39.85539 33.4

76 Army 38.74808 33.2

77 Rutgers 38.32826 33.1

78 Northwestern 38.12959 33.0

79 Duke 35.84988 32.5

80 Southern Miss 34.54513 32.1

81 Alabama-Birmingham 34.52837 32.1

82 Connecticut 34.18765 32.0

83 Arkansas St 33.99982 32.0

84 Utah St 33.47433 31.9

85 Ohio U. 32.96159 31.7

86 Florida Int'l 29.00454 30.6

87 Florida Atlantic 24.24935 28.9

88 Louisiana Tech 23.86547 28.8

89 Minnesota 23.20565 28.5

90 UTEP 22.08929 28.1

91 Toledo 21.90047 28.0

92 Kansas 21.06992 27.7

93 Purdue 19.90891 27.1

94 Wake Forest 19.90112 27.1

95 San José St 19.29113 26.9

96 Bowling Green 19.08979 26.8

97 Vanderbilt 18.92456 26.7

98 Idaho 18.89344 26.7

99 Louisiana-Monroe 17.91419 26.2

100 Marshall 16.79223 25.6

101 Central Michigan 16.22787 25.3

102 Kent St 15.42221 24.8

103 Wyoming 14.50737 24.3

104 Colorado St 14.49087 24.3

105 Miami OH 12.0856 22.6

106 North Texas 11.90037 22.5

107 Tulane 11.77297 22.4

108 Buffalo 11.59121 22.2

109 Western Michigan 11.46501 22.1

110 Louisiana-Lafayette 11.02512 21.8

111 Rice 9.25393 20.2

112 Middle Tennessee St 9.117041 20.1

113 Ball St 8.834057 19.8

114 Western Kentucky 8.375797 19.3

115 UNLV 6.891802 17.5

116 New Mexico St 5.151725 14.9

117 New Mexico 4.558932 13.8

118 Eastern Michigan 4.249599 13.1

119 Memphis 2.700606 9.0

120 Akron 2.258519 7.4

FCS
Team Rating Pointspread equivalent

1 Delaware 196.3728 47.9

2 William & Mary 143.0451 45.0

3 James Madison 116.5738 43.2

4 Villanova 112.7004 42.9

5 New Hampshire 93.10309 41.1

6 Massachusetts 72.89346 38.9

7 Rhode Island 41.29325 33.8

8 Appalachian St 37.70898 32.9

9 Liberty 34.1405 32.0

10 Wofford 32.93466 31.7

11 Richmond 31.68418 31.4

12 Montana St 31.21334 31.2

13 Georgia Southern 31.17817 31.2

14 Pennsylvania 29.86806 30.8

15 Maine 28.86465 30.5

16 Northern Arizona 28.84453 30.5

17 Jacksonville St 27.02577 29.9

18 Robert Morris 26.36138 29.7

19 Western Illinois 25.80148 29.5

20 South Dakota St 25.48472 29.4

21 Sacramento St 23.00522 28.5

22 Chattanooga 21.67159 27.9

23 Eastern Washington 20.02833 27.2

24 Old Dominion 19.74105 27.1

25 Southern Utah 18.96295 26.7

26 Elon 18.69918 26.6

27 Harvard 17.65648 26.1

28 Northern Iowa 17.47587 26.0

29 Furman 17.16505 25.8

30 Montana 16.99293 25.7

31 North Dakota St 16.52577 25.5

32 Dayton 16.11616 25.2

33 Eastern Kentucky 15.36893 24.8

34 Stephen F. Austin 14.91009 24.5

35 Brown 14.06444 24.0

36 Cal Poly SLO 13.34919 23.5

37 SE Missouri St 13.03418 23.3

38 Lehigh 12.56006 23.0

39 Jacksonville FL 12.54061 22.9

40 Bethune-Cookman 12.49424 22.9

41 Missouri St 11.87692 22.5

42 Stony Brook 11.59604 22.2

43 Murray St 10.69802 21.5

44 North Dakota 10.58629 21.4

45 Yale 10.20351 21.1

46 Weber St 10.09802 21.0

47 Monmouth NJ 9.877297 20.8

48 Samford 9.874905 20.8

49 Fordham 9.776825 20.7

50 Youngstown St 9.723647 20.6

51 Indiana St 9.620118 20.5

52 Dartmouth 8.693037 19.6

53 McNeese St 8.590172 19.5

54 Bryant 8.262883 19.2

55 South Dakota 8.152946 19.0

56 Columbia 8.023212 18.9

57 Towson 7.885754 18.7

58 Albany NY 7.77814 18.6

59 Duquesne 7.717862 18.5

60 Central Conn St 7.44113 18.2

61 Southern Illinois 7.373818 18.1

62 Central Arkansas 7.044184 17.7

63 Illinois St 6.902038 17.5

64 Texas St-San Marcos 6.803899 17.4

65 UC-Davis 6.393878 16.8

66 SE Louisiana St 6.203556 16.6

67 Lafayette 5.864756 16.1

68 Northern Colorado 5.718477 15.8

69 Grambling St 5.585114 15.6

70 Wagner 5.534818 15.5

71 Portland St 5.436309 15.4

72 Sam Houston St 5.405838 15.3

73 Drake 5.300539 15.1

74 Sacred Heart 4.951917 14.5

75 Holy Cross 4.860824 14.3

76 Tennessee-Martin 4.846951 14.3

77 Northwestern St 4.609059 13.9

78 Colgate 4.020088 12.6

79 Georgetown DC 3.949832 12.5

80 Tennessee Tech 3.815384 12.2

81 Jackson St 3.77406 12.1

82 Coastal Carolina 3.683858 11.8

83 Eastern Illinois 3.308669 10.9

84 South Carolina St 3.288947 10.8

85 Idaho St 3.135481 10.4

86 San Diego 3.033644 10.1

87 Gardner-Webb 2.858926 9.5

88 Texas Southern 2.618991 8.7

89 Tennessee St 2.558959 8.5

90 Western Carolina 2.311307 7.6

91 Alcorn St 2.263344 7.4

92 Hampton 2.237488 7.3

93 St Francis PA 2.134439 6.9

94 Prairie View A&M 1.998817 6.3

95 Princeton 1.984008 6.2

96 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 1.84588 5.6

97 Charleston Southern 1.831888 5.5

98 Cornell NY 1.790031 5.3

99 Alabama St 1.703315 4.8

100 Bucknell 1.695328 4.8

101 The Citadel 1.645554 4.5

102 Morehead St 1.622142 4.4

103 Lamar 1.5629 4.1

104 Presbyterian 1.546238 4.0

105 VMI 1.43587 3.3

106 d2 1.421353 3.2

107 Norfolk St 1.387988 3.0

108 Campbell 1.245819 2.0

109 Butler 1.231235 1.9

110 Nicholls St 1.204719 1.7

111 Marist 1.174381 1.5

112 Alabama A&M 1.075315 0.7

113 Austin Peay 0.907895 - 0.9

114 Florida A&M 0.861907 - 1.3

115 North Carolina Central 0.743629 - 2.7

116 Davidson 0.691645 - 3.3

117 Morgan St 0.609259 - 4.5

118 Delaware St 0.549618 - 5.4

119 Southern U. 0.54439 - 5.5

120 North Carolina A&T 0.346754 - 9.6

121 Howard 0.317541 - 10.4

122 Valparaiso 0.248934 - 12.6

123 Mississippi Valley St 0.085923 - 22.3

124 Savannah St 0.052963 - 26.7

week 11 NoahChain ratings

2010-11-14T10:22:00.000-08:00

Here they are Auburn and TCU are in the top 2 slots

1 Auburn 0.7904

2 TCU 0.7827

3 Nebraska 0.7802

4 Oklahoma st 0.7743

5 LSU 0.7604

6 Stanford 0.7555

7 Oregon 0.7518

8 Oklahoma 0.7356

9 Boise st 0.7316

10 Kansas st 0.7132

11 Missouri 0.7119

12 Arizona 0.7050

13 Alabama 0.7027

14 Iowa 0.7023

15 Arkansas 0.7006

16 Utah 0.6987

17 Wisconsin 0.6973

18 Texas A&M 0.6931

19 Baylor 0.6904

20 Michigan st 0.6893

21 Ohio state 0.6857

22 Mississippi st 0.6673

23 Virginia Tech 0.6659

24 Texas Tech 0.6616

25 Iowa st 0.6555

26 Texas 0.6519

27 South Carolina 0.6371

28 Florida 0.6255

29 North Carolina 0.6218

30 UCLA 0.6186

31 North Carolina St 0.6148

32 Oregon st 0.6132

33 Miami FL 0.6121

34 Air Force 0.6077

35 Southern Cal 0.6076

36 Florida st 0.6043

37 Central Florida 0.6041

38 Michigan 0.5996

39 Penn state 0.5844

40 Nevada 0.5836

41 East Carolina 0.5716

42 Illinois 0.5632

43 California 0.5623

44 Clemson 0.5594

45 Temple 0.5579

46 Washington 0.5556

47 Hawai`i 0.5518

48 San Diego st 0.5427

49 Kentucky 0.5407

50 Navy 0.5375

51 Maryland 0.5360

52 Pittsburgh 0.5265

53 Northern Illinois 0.5258

54 West Virginia 0.5197

55 Georgia Tech 0.5133

56 Mississippi 0.5069

57 Georgia 0.5062

58 Northwestern 0.5059

59 Brigham Young 0.5022

60 Fresno st 0.4978

61 Arizona St 0.4976

62 Colorado 0.4923

63 Tennessee 0.4900

64 South Florida 0.4888

65 Notre Dame 0.4880

66 Syracuse 0.4861

67 Tulsa 0.4860

68 Indiana 0.4742

69 Kansas 0.4641

70 Toledo 0.4628

71 Southern Miss 0.4610

72 Boston College 0.4607

73 Louisville 0.4604

74 Houston 0.4586

75 Army 0.4467

76 Purdue 0.4424

77 Virginia 0.4386

78 Ohio U. 0.4372

79 Connecticut 0.4356

80 Cincinnati 0.4263

81 Duke 0.4247

82 Vanderbilt 0.4173

83 Miami OH 0.4157

84 Utah st 0.4113

85 SMU 0.4111

86 Rutgers 0.3994

87 Colorado st 0.3884

88 Marshall 0.3825

89 Troy 0.3781

90 Minnesota 0.3780

91 Louisiana Tech 0.3746

92 Wake Forest 0.3731

93 Idaho 0.3723

94 Kent st 0.3697

95 Washington st 0.3563

96 Wyoming 0.3516

97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3412

98 Buffalo 0.3401

99 Tulane 0.3308

100 UNLV 0.3294

101 San José St 0.3243

102 UTEP 0.3236

103 Rice 0.3221

104 Arkansas St 0.3214

105 Florida Int'l 0.3131

106 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3104

107 Bowling Green 0.3009

108 Western Michigan 0.2854

109 New Mexico st 0.2714

110 Florida Atlantic 0.2637

111 Middle Tennessee St 0.2608

112 Central Michigan 0.2607

113 Memphis 0.2597

114 New Mexico 0.2493

115 aa 0.2419

116 Ball St 0.2279

117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2190

118 Eastern Michigan 0.2187

119 North Texas 0.1851

120 Akron 0.1809

121 Western Kentucky 0.1757

Week 10 rankings

2010-11-07T10:26:00.000-08:00

TCU make it to the top of the rankings following their demolition of Utah.

1 TCU 0.7420

2 Auburn 0.7402

3 Oklahoma 0.7393

4 Nebraska 0.7287

5 Missouri 0.7170

6 LSU 0.6926

7 Arizona 0.6907

8 Oregon 0.6866

9 Boise st 0.6848

10 Stanford 0.6829

11 Oklahoma st 0.6794

12 Iowa 0.6768

13 Michigan st 0.6737

14 Wisconsin 0.6729

15 Utah 0.6689

16 Baylor 0.6566

17 Alabama 0.6535

18 Ohio state 0.6501

19 Mississippi st 0.6481

20 Iowa st 0.6347

21 North Carolina St 0.6312

22 Kansas st 0.6293

23 Texas 0.6271

24 Virginia Tech 0.6244

25 Arkansas 0.6209

26 Oregon st 0.6207

27 Florida st 0.6144

28 South Carolina 0.6081

29 Florida 0.5974

30 Texas Tech 0.5941

31 Central Florida 0.5887

32 East Carolina 0.5886

33 Southern Cal 0.5864

34 Texas A&M 0.5854

35 Air Force 0.5814

36 Nevada 0.5805

37 Illinois 0.5799

38 Miami FL 0.5771

39 North Carolina 0.5694

40 Michigan 0.5667

41 Penn state 0.5639

42 Washington 0.5623

43 Hawai`i 0.5614

44 UCLA 0.5585

45 California 0.5554

46 Temple 0.5457

47 San Diego st 0.5369

48 Northern Illinois 0.5363

49 Colorado 0.5256

50 Maryland 0.5236

51 Pittsburgh 0.5221

52 Northwestern 0.5219

53 Brigham Young 0.5214

54 Kentucky 0.5210

55 Arizona St 0.5163

56 Syracuse 0.5161

57 Georgia 0.5131

58 Tulsa 0.5075

59 Navy 0.5067

60 Georgia Tech 0.5063

61 Toledo 0.5061

62 Clemson 0.5058

63 West Virginia 0.5029

64 Mississippi 0.4922

65 Fresno st 0.4916

66 Notre Dame 0.4906

67 Indiana 0.4889

68 SMU 0.4857

69 Tennessee 0.4816

70 South Florida 0.4804

71 Houston 0.4768

72 Virginia 0.4761

73 Army 0.4666

74 Purdue 0.4662

75 Southern Miss 0.4604

76 Boston College 0.4598

77 Wyoming 0.4523

78 Cincinnati 0.4522

79 Ohio U. 0.4441

80 Louisville 0.4432

81 Connecticut 0.4428

82 Rutgers 0.4413

83 Kansas 0.4341

84 Miami OH 0.4324

85 Utah st 0.4303

86 Vanderbilt 0.4238

87 Troy 0.4176

88 Duke 0.4164

89 Colorado st 0.4144

90 Louisiana Tech 0.4100

91 Wake Forest 0.4075

92 Kent st 0.4020

93 Minnesota 0.3992

94 Washington st 0.3992

95 Idaho 0.3990

96 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3881

97 Tulane 0.3868

98 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3832

99 Western Michigan 0.3813

100 Buffalo 0.3795

101 Rice 0.3743

102 Marshall 0.3656

103 UNLV 0.3617

104 San José St 0.3481

105 Arkansas St 0.3421

106 Middle Tennessee St 0.3314

107 Florida Int'l 0.3234

108 UTEP 0.3224

109 Bowling Green 0.3176

110 New Mexico st 0.3042

111 Memphis 0.3004

112 Florida Atlantic 0.2875

113 aa 0.2860

114 Central Michigan 0.2834

115 Ball St 0.2715

116 Akron 0.2682

117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2678

118 New Mexico 0.2539

119 Eastern Michigan 0.2524

120 Western Kentucky 0.2384

121 North Texas 0.2301

Week 9 rankings

2010-10-31T04:10:00.000-07:00

Oklahoma and Auburn remain in the top two slots.

1 Oklahoma 0.7497

2 Auburn 0.7456

3 TCU 0.7439

4 Nebraska 0.7349

5 Missouri 0.7259

6 Arizona 0.6997

7 LSU 0.6964

8 Oregon 0.6941

9 Boise st 0.6901

10 Stanford 0.6888

11 Oklahoma st 0.6845

12 Iowa 0.6826

13 Wisconsin 0.6785

14 Michigan st 0.6784

15 Utah 0.6774

16 Baylor 0.6646

17 Alabama 0.6598

18 Ohio state 0.6537

19 Mississippi st 0.6520

20 Iowa st 0.6424

21 North Carolina St 0.6378

22 Texas 0.6351

23 Kansas st 0.6337

24 Virginia Tech 0.6328

25 Oregon st 0.6287

26 Arkansas 0.6239

27 Florida st 0.6216

28 South Carolina 0.6156

29 Florida 0.6000

30 Texas Tech 0.5975

31 East Carolina 0.5941

32 Central Florida 0.5905

33 Southern Cal 0.5888

34 Texas A&M 0.5874

35 Illinois 0.5839

36 Nevada 0.5831

37 Air Force 0.5827

38 Miami FL 0.5790

39 North Carolina 0.5698

40 Washington 0.5667

41 Michigan 0.5666

42 Hawai`i 0.5649

43 Penn state 0.5624

44 UCLA 0.5610

45 California 0.5580

46 Temple 0.5450

47 Northern Illinois 0.5369

48 San Diego st 0.5367

49 Kentucky 0.5292

50 Colorado 0.5291

51 Maryland 0.5241

52 Northwestern 0.5234

53 Pittsburgh 0.5216

54 Brigham Young 0.5214

55 Arizona St 0.5192

56 Syracuse 0.5172

57 Georgia 0.5141

58 Georgia Tech 0.5080

59 Tulsa 0.5050

60 Toledo 0.5049

61 Clemson 0.5047

62 Navy 0.5033

63 West Virginia 0.5010

64 Mississippi 0.4940

65 Notre Dame 0.4892

66 Fresno st 0.4890

67 Indiana 0.4884

68 SMU 0.4849

69 Tennessee 0.4812

70 Virginia 0.4773

71 South Florida 0.4759

72 Houston 0.4751

73 Army 0.4655

74 Purdue 0.4645

75 Boston College 0.4571

76 Southern Miss 0.4541

77 Wyoming 0.4520

78 Cincinnati 0.4491

79 Louisville 0.4407

80 Connecticut 0.4399

81 Rutgers 0.4394

82 Ohio U. 0.4372

83 Kansas 0.4336

84 Miami OH 0.4273

85 Utah st 0.4258

86 Vanderbilt 0.4225

87 Duke 0.4115

88 Colorado st 0.4113

89 Troy 0.4106

90 Louisiana Tech 0.4069

91 Wake Forest 0.4052

92 Minnesota 0.3993

93 Kent st 0.3987

94 Washington st 0.3954

95 Idaho 0.3941

96 Tulane 0.3836

97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3830

98 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3778

99 Western Michigan 0.3775

100 Buffalo 0.3757

101 Rice 0.3709

102 UNLV 0.3567

103 Marshall 0.3557

104 San José St 0.3442

105 Arkansas St 0.3332

106 Middle Tennessee St 0.3262

107 UTEP 0.3129

108 Florida Int'l 0.3121

109 Bowling Green 0.3095

110 New Mexico st 0.2979

111 aa 0.2957

112 Memphis 0.2940

113 Florida Atlantic 0.2761

114 Central Michigan 0.2726

115 Akron 0.2666

116 Ball St 0.2626

117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2608

118 Eastern Michigan 0.2441

119 New Mexico 0.2428

120 Western Kentucky 0.2312

121 North Texas 0.2219

Week 8 rankings

2010-10-24T08:02:00.000-07:00

Here they are.

Despite Oklahomas loss to Missouri it only drops one place and it is only narrowly behind Auburn. The reason for this is that a loss to an undefeated team does very little damage to a team.
It will be interesting to see what the other systems say.
Alabama's victory over Tennessee (no.70) doesn't help it much neither does Oregon beating No.50 UCLA also doesnt help much.

Boise's weak schedule is still hurting it although being on a bye week also doesn't help.

1 Auburn 0.7131

2 Oklahoma 0.7130

3 Missouri 0.7083

4 TCU 0.7016

5 LSU 0.6664

6 Michigan st 0.6656

7 Wisconsin 0.6457

8 Nebraska 0.6416

9 Arizona 0.6342

10 Boise st 0.6339

11 Oregon 0.6317

12 Stanford 0.6283

13 Ohio state 0.6222

14 Utah 0.6216

15 Alabama 0.6160

16 Baylor 0.6114

17 Iowa st 0.6104

18 Kansas st 0.6097

19 Mississippi st 0.6090

20 Texas 0.6081

21 Oklahoma st 0.6054

22 Florida st 0.6047

23 Iowa 0.6012

24 Miami FL 0.5952

25 South Carolina 0.5942

26 Arkansas 0.5865

27 Texas Tech 0.5842

28 Air Force 0.5768

29 Virginia Tech 0.5711

30 Nevada 0.5709

31 Oregon st 0.5676

32 Southern Cal 0.5671

33 California 0.5659

34 East Carolina 0.5657

35 Florida 0.5652

36 North Carolina St 0.5627

37 Hawai`i 0.5588

38 Michigan 0.5580

39 Illinois 0.5568

40 North Carolina 0.5564

41 UCLA 0.5553

42 Navy 0.5499

43 Washington 0.5416

44 Colorado 0.5399

45 Clemson 0.5391

46 West Virginia 0.5347

47 San Diego st 0.5319

48 Pittsburgh 0.5303

49 Notre Dame 0.5302

50 Texas A&M 0.5295

51 Maryland 0.5270

52 Central Florida 0.5267

53 Brigham Young 0.5259

54 Northwestern 0.5248

55 Northern Illinois 0.5247

56 Southern Miss 0.5240

57 Kentucky 0.5210

58 Georgia 0.5191

59 Penn state 0.5179

60 Temple 0.5173

61 Arizona St 0.5137

62 Georgia Tech 0.5108

63 Indiana 0.5093

64 Syracuse 0.5059

65 Toledo 0.5004

66 Mississippi 0.4982

67 Purdue 0.4927

68 Fresno st 0.4902

69 South Florida 0.4892

70 Tennessee 0.4790

71 Tulsa 0.4783

72 SMU 0.4764

73 Cincinnati 0.4726

74 Houston 0.4718

75 Wyoming 0.4690

76 Kansas 0.4644

77 Louisiana Tech 0.4643

78 Louisville 0.4586

79 Boston College 0.4547

80 Utah st 0.4541

81 Troy 0.4520

82 Army 0.4504

83 Rutgers 0.4504

84 Wake Forest 0.4469

85 Vanderbilt 0.4423

86 Virginia 0.4418

87 Miami OH 0.4379

88 Ohio U. 0.4338

89 Idaho 0.4294

90 Florida Int'l 0.4294

91 San José St 0.4293

92 Western Michigan 0.4267

93 Connecticut 0.4260

94 Colorado st 0.4220

95 Washington st 0.4199

96 Tulane 0.4155

97 Minnesota 0.4141

98 Buffalo 0.4123

99 Kent st 0.4066

100 Duke 0.4032

101 Rice 0.4005

102 UNLV 0.3912

103 UTEP 0.3784

104 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3771

105 Marshall 0.3767

106 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3732

107 Arkansas St 0.3698

108 Memphis 0.3664

109 Middle Tennessee St 0.3615

110 Central Michigan 0.3562

111 Western Kentucky 0.3512

112 aa 0.3496

113 New Mexico st 0.3342

114 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.3332

115 Bowling Green 0.3275

116 Ball St 0.3211

117 Akron 0.3020

118 New Mexico 0.3005

119 Florida Atlantic 0.2957

120 Eastern Michigan 0.2920

121 North Texas 0.2721

Week 7 rankings

2010-10-17T09:38:00.000-07:00

Here are the rankings.

Oklahoma are now number 1 with LSU in 2nd place. The rating is the averaged probability that the team in question is better than each of the other 120 teams. The difference between the top and bottom teams will increase as the season progresses as there will be more data to link and therefore differentiate between the teams as every team starts as .500 at the start of the season.

FCS teams are represented by a single super-team termed "aa".

Rank Team Rating

1 Oklahoma 0.645

2 LSU 0.634

3 TCU 0.631

4 Auburn 0.628

5 Michigan st 0.611

6 Boise st 0.606

7 Missouri 0.600

8 Stanford 0.593

9 Oregon 0.580

10 Oklahoma st 0.579

11 Kansas st 0.579

12 Alabama 0.579

13 Nebraska 0.577

14 Texas 0.571

15 Mississippi st 0.569

16 Arizona 0.569

17 South Carolina 0.568

18 Wisconsin 0.568

19 Iowa 0.561

20 Utah 0.560

21 Ohio state 0.559

22 Florida st 0.556

23 Virginia Tech 0.556

24 Baylor 0.553

25 East Carolina 0.552

26 Air Force 0.551

27 North Carolina 0.549

28 North Carolina St 0.549

29 Nevada 0.547

30 Florida 0.546

31 Michigan 0.545

32 Southern Cal 0.544

33 West Virginia 0.541

34 Hawai`i 0.541

35 Oregon st 0.538

36 Iowa st 0.537

37 Texas Tech 0.536

38 Arkansas 0.534

39 Colorado 0.531

40 Illinois 0.531

41 UCLA 0.530

42 California 0.529

43 Notre Dame 0.528

44 Washington 0.527

45 Northwestern 0.527

46 Kentucky 0.524

47 Miami FL 0.523

48 Navy 0.522

49 Southern Miss 0.522

50 San Diego st 0.521

51 Georgia Tech 0.520

52 Arizona St 0.519

53 Northern Illinois 0.518

54 Maryland 0.517

55 Central Florida 0.517

56 SMU 0.512

57 Texas A&M 0.512

58 Temple 0.510

59 Brigham Young 0.507

60 Purdue 0.507

61 Clemson 0.507

62 Toledo 0.506

63 Indiana 0.506

64 Penn state 0.506

65 Mississippi 0.502

66 Pittsburgh 0.500

67 Georgia 0.498

68 Wyoming 0.497

69 Cincinnati 0.497

70 Fresno st 0.496

71 Tulsa 0.495

72 Miami OH 0.490

73 Tennessee 0.488

74 Kansas 0.482

75 Rutgers 0.482

76 South Florida 0.481

77 Boston College 0.479

78 Syracuse 0.478

79 Connecticut 0.477

80 Troy 0.477

81 Vanderbilt 0.474

82 Houston 0.472

83 Louisiana Tech 0.471

84 Utah st 0.470

85 Louisville 0.468

86 Army 0.466

87 Wake Forest 0.464

88 San José St 0.461

89 Virginia 0.461

90 Louisiana-Monroe 0.460

91 Colorado st 0.457

92 Ohio U. 0.453

93 Buffalo 0.451

94 UTEP 0.450

95 Florida Int'l 0.449

96 Idaho 0.449

97 Western Michigan 0.448

98 Washington st 0.446

99 Rice 0.446

100 Kent st 0.440

101 Minnesota 0.438

102 Tulane 0.434

103 Alabama-Birmingham 0.430

104 Duke 0.428

105 Marshall 0.428

106 UNLV 0.426

107 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.418

108 Arkansas St 0.416

109 Central Michigan 0.414

110 Memphis 0.413

111 New Mexico st 0.410

112 aa 0.402

113 Middle Tennessee St 0.400

114 Bowling Green 0.398

115 Western Kentucky 0.394

116 Florida Atlantic 0.393

117 Ball St 0.385

118 New Mexico 0.373

119 Eastern Michigan 0.371

120 Akron 0.368

121 North Texas 0.337

Corrected week 6 rankings

2010-10-15T09:37:00.000-07:00

I have adjusted how the ranking system treats games against FCS teams as initially they were counting for far more than a game against an FBS team.

The weighting given to these games when calculating secondary wins and losses is now equal to the average number of games played by FBS teams divided by the number of games FCS have played. So as the average number of games played is just under 6 but 81 games against FCS teams have been played the weighting is ~6/81 =.07. Or in other words my original system was making a win or loss against a FCS count 14 times as much as an ordinary game when secondary and higher level wins and losses are being calculated.

This has dramatically changed some teams rankings as Virginia Tech have jumped from 112 to 25th compared with the Massey consensus of 24th. Nth Carolina State from 66th to 23rd (Massey Consensus 25th)

Boise have jumped to second, TCU have dropped to third and LSU are now first.

The correlation to the massey consensus is now a respectable .961 which is 33rd best out of the 119 systems whereas previously I was in last place when you excluded the polls. So I think this adjustment has corrected the large and difficult to justify discrepencies in the original version.
So hopefully next week my rankings will not annoy Josh as much.

Looking at the correlation between my rankings and the others the closest correlation is to the rankings of Hatch and of Wobus (correlation of 0.98). Although these are two quite different systems and my system isn't like either although it may be closer to Wobus.

JMC

Week 6 NCAA football rankings using Noahchain

2010-10-10T10:08:00.000-07:00

Here are the first rankings of the college football season.
Well done TCU and LSU who would be in the national chanpionship game if the season ended today and my rankings were used.

1 TCU

2 LSU

3 Oklahoma

4 Michigan st

5 Oregon

6 Auburn

7 Boise st

8 Stanford

9 Nebraska

10 Missouri

11 Arizona

12 South Carolina

13 Alabama

14 Kansas st

15 Nevada

16 Air Force

17 Florida st

18 Oregon st

19 Ohio state

20 Iowa

21 Michigan

22 Oklahoma st

23 Illinois

24 California

25 Wisconsin

26 Arkansas

27 Mississippi st

28 Iowa st

29 West Virginia

30 Utah

31 Arizona St

32 Maryland

33 Hawai`i

34 Temple

35 Penn state

36 Colorado

37 Navy

38 Florida

39 Northern Illinois

40 UCLA

41 Notre Dame

42 Houston

43 Miami FL

44 Southern Cal

45 Northwestern

46 Baylor

47 Purdue

48 Syracuse

49 Toledo

50 Texas A&M

51 Texas

52 Wyoming

53 Texas Tech

54 UTEP

55 SMU

56 Washington

57 Indiana

58 Idaho

59 San Diego st

60 South Florida

61 Pittsburgh

62 Tennessee

63 Army

64 Western Michigan

65 Georgia

66 Connecticut

67 Brigham Young

68 Southern Miss

69 Louisiana Tech

70 Clemson

71 Troy

72 Washington st

73 Louisiana-Monroe

74 Vanderbilt

75 Ohio U.

76 Central Florida

77 Colorado st

78 North Carolina

79 Buffalo

80 Louisville

81 Miami OH

82 UNLV

83 Duke

84 Tulsa

85 Virginia

86 Rice

87 North Carolina St

88 Rutgers

89 Utah st

90 Wake Forest

91 Marshall

92 Florida Int'l

93 Arkansas St

94 Alabama-Birmingham

95 Florida Atlantic

96 Cincinnati

97 Kent st

98 Bowling Green

99 Louisiana-Lafayette

100 Fresno st

101 Georgia Tech

102 East Carolina

103 Tulane

104 Memphis

105 Western Kentucky

106 New Mexico

107 North Texas

108 Kentucky

109 Boston College

110 Middle Tennessee St

111 New Mexico st

112 Virginia Tech

113 Eastern Michigan

114 Mississippi

115 Central Michigan

116 Ball St

117 Kansas

118 San José St

119 Minnesota

120 aa

121 Akron

NFL eliminator strategy.

2010-08-07T11:27:00.000-07:00

A popular competition is the NFL eliminator or survivor pool where you choose a team each week and if they lose you are out but if you win you survive to next week but you cannot choose the same time twice in a season.
I think there is a way to identify which pick is the most "value" in terms of your chances of winning the competition if you know(or can estimate) a) how may contestants have picked each team and b) each team’s chance of winning. The general approach you want to pick a good team with little support and avoid good teams with a lot of support and hope that your team win and the other good team lose elsewhere to reduce the number of opponents.
Mathematically your chance of winning the competition overall is equal to your chance of your pick winning this week divided by the number of contestants left if you do win. Call this your survival factor, the aim is to pick the team with the highest survival factor.
For many eliminator pools (ESPN Yahoo) you can see what percentage of people have picked each team.
To work out each teams survival factor I do the following

a) for each game multiply the chance of the favorite winning by the number of people who have picked them add to this the chance of the underdog winning multiplied by the percentage of people who have picked them. This gives the average number of survivors from this game.
b) Then take each team in turn and divide their winning chance in that game by the number of survivors using the average number of survivors from all other games plus the support for this particular team.
This is a one week at a time approach but I think that as it is impossible to predict future matches several weeks in advance this is probably as good a way as any.
Using the current yahoo survivor pool selections and the moneyline from Football Locks.com Tennessee are way too popular and the Giants are too unpopular so I am going for the Giants.

How much is a win worth in the MLB

2010-08-07T10:20:00.000-07:00

There is much talk about a baseball players wins probability added (WPA) and similar stats. I wanted to take a step back and see how much is adding X number of wins to a team actually worth in terms of a) reaching the playoffs and b)winning in the playoffs.

I looked at each team’s W-L record for the last five seasons (2005-2009) and calculated the effect of adding or subtracting wins to their record in terms of reaching the playoffs.

So if a team was 4 games behind the wildcard team adding 1,2 or 3 games has no effect, and the probability of making the playoffs stays at 0. Adding 4 games would lead to a playoff so the chances of making the playoffs is considered to be 50%. Adding 5 or more games leads to a 100% chance of making the playoffs.

Doing this for all 150 teams-seasons showed that each win increases a team’s chances of making the playoffs by 2.8% the actual line is a sigmoid but it is very linear except at the extremes.

However when we get to the playoffs the situation is quite different. I looked at seven years 2002-2008 where there were 49 playoff series. In three of these both teams had the same regular season record. In the other 46 the team with the best regular season record went 24-22 which is little better than a coin toss.

Even splitting the 46 into the 24 with the smallest regular season record difference (5 games or less) and the 22 with the biggest difference(6 or more games) had no effect with the 22 biggest difference teams only going 12-10, the small difference teams went 12-12.

So maybe Billy Beane shouldn't have been too upset when he complained that his "S*** doesn’t work in the playoffs."

Baseball Card game based on Game theory

2010-08-07T09:44:00.001-07:00

A few months ago TangoTiger asked if anyone could develop a simple game resembling baseball for use with a standard deck of playing cards.

This was my attempt based on the game theory aspects of the confrontation between pitcher and batter.

http://docs.google.com/document/edit?id=1lj1xCAONqYgQdg7tKjNA4W0M_m0Yt2l33mY-Brj8JXk&hl=en

NoahChain football ranking system

2010-08-07T09:24:00.000-07:00

NoahChain

A pair-wise ranking system for college football teams

There are five steps to this method

The brief explanation

1. Count chains of wins and losses between each pair of teams.

For example consider the following chains which link team A and B

A beats B, Primary Win for A

A beats C who beats B, Secondary Win for A

A beats E who beats F who beats B, Third level win for A

B beats G who beats A Secondary Loss for A

2. Convert secondary and third level and higher level wins and losses to the equivalent number of primary wins and losses. This is based on the probability that each chain represents team A being higher ranked than team B. This requires a parameter “H” which is the probability of the winner of a single game is higher ranked than the loser. This parameter “H” is the key to this ranking system. H is usually around 80%

3. Calculate the likelihood of team A being better than team B This is based on the number of equivalent victories and losses between the two teams.

4. Determine the average likelihood that team A is better than a random team. This is simply the average of the likelihood of team A being better than the other teams. Repeat this for all teams and then rank all teams on this basis.

5. Iterate the expected win percentage until it stabilises. Alter the percentage of games higher ranking teams are expected to win (parameter “H”) until the value equals the actual percentage of games won by the higher ranked team in that season.

For a more detailed explanation see this google doc link https://docs.google.com/document/edit?id=1dePOpGFRW6BqZQIHLLf1J_mOvZci1_F1K1hb-C5Li34&hl=en#

I hope to have this accepted onto the Massey ranking websites once the 2010 season starts.

It is called NoahChain because it compares teams two by two and looks at chains of victories and defeats.

How to stop NFL top seeds from resting starters in the last week

2010-08-04T13:11:00.000-07:00

To make sure teams have something to play for after the top seed is secured I think the way the bye for the first round of playoffs should change. Instead of the top two seeds getting byes it should be based on their record in the last 3 weeks. If you win in week 17 you get 4 bye week points if you win in week 16 you get 2 bye points and 1 point for a week 15 win. The two division winners with the most bye week points get the bye. Homefield advantage would stay with the highest seeds. This should solve the problem of number one seeds resting starters.

First blog

2010-07-31T03:47:00.000-07:00

First post. I want to use this blog to discuss sabermetric analysis that I mess around with. I will post my spreadsheets either on this blog or on google docs which might spark discussion. Also I am developing an NCAA football rating system(there are only about 100 developed so far so we need another one.). I have suggestions for revising the NFL CBA. I will review my favourite sports books and sports managment games that I have read/played.