Sunday, 28 November 2010

Week 13 Pointshare rankings for FBS and FCS

Here they are
HFA is 3.1 points
Oregon and Boise are still number 1 and 2 despite Boise's close loss.
Auburn were predicted to lose by 1 to Alabama so there close win wasn't much better than expected so it hasn't improved their position by  much.

FBS

Rank Team Pointspread equivalent
1 Oregon 72.8


2 Boise St 64.3

3 TCU 63.0

4 Stanford 62.1

5 Auburn 60.3

6 Nevada 58.3

7 Alabama 57.8

8 Arkansas 57.1

9 Ohio State 56.9

10 Virginia Tech 56.6

11 South Carolina 56.1

12 Wisconsin 55.6

13 Nebraska 55.5

14 Arizona St 53.9

15 LSU 53.8

16 Missouri 53.8

17 Oklahoma 53.4

18 California 52.5

19 Southern Cal 52.3

20 Oregon St 52.2

21 Texas A&M 51.5

22 Iowa 51.2

23 Oklahoma St 50.9

24 Arizona 50.2

25 Michigan St 50.0

26 San Diego St 50.0

27 Florida St 49.9

28 West Virginia 49.6

29 North Carolina St 47.7

30 Clemson 47.7

31 Mississippi St 47.3

32 Miami FL 47.2

33 Hawai`i 47.2

34 Notre Dame 46.8

35 Air Force 46.6

36 Georgia 46.5

37 Utah 45.7

38 Pittsburgh 45.2

39 Florida 44.8

40 Kentucky 44.7

41 Illinois 44.1

42 North Carolina 43.7

43 Washington 43.3

44 Navy 43.1

45 Texas 42.3

46 Maryland 42.1

47 Northern Illinois 41.8

48 Central Florida 41.7

49 Washington St 41.7

50 Kansas St 41.3

51 Tennessee 41.2

52 Louisville 40.9

53 Fresno St 40.9

54 Mississippi 40.9

55 Georgia Tech 40.8

56 Connecticut 40.3

57 Texas Tech 40.2

58 South Florida 39.6

59 Michigan 39.5

60 Iowa St 39.4

61 Tulsa 39.4

62 Boston College 39.4

63 UCLA 39.2

64 Syracuse 38.9

65 Brigham Young 38.9

66 SMU 38.6

67 Penn State 38.5

68 Southern Miss 38.3

69 Colorado 37.9

70 Cincinnati 37.4

71 Virginia 36.8

72 Baylor 36.6

73 Temple 36.3

74 Northwestern 36.2

75 Minnesota 35.7

76 Utah St 35.2

77 Florida Int'l 35.2

78 East Carolina 34.6

79 Troy 33.9

80 Purdue 33.7

81 Army 33.3

82 Houston 32.8

83 Duke 32.8

84 Ohio U. 32.8

85 Louisiana Tech 32.5

86 Idaho 32.1

87 Rutgers 32.0

88 Alabama-Birmingham 32.0

89 Toledo 30.8

90 Indiana 30.6

91 Arkansas St 30.4

92 UTEP 29.8

93 Central Michigan 29.6

94 Marshall 28.6

95 Miami OH 28.5

96 Western Michigan 28.4

97 Vanderbilt 28.2

98 San José St 27.9

99 Wyoming 27.8

100 Kansas 27.8

101 Florida Atlantic 27.1

102 Wake Forest 27.0

103 Colorado St 26.8

104 Kent St 26.2

105 Louisiana-Monroe 25.0

106 Rice 24.6

107 Bowling Green 24.5

108 Middle Tennessee St 23.3

109 North Texas 22.6

110 Western Kentucky 22.5

111 UNLV 22.4

112 Ball St 22.2

113 Tulane 21.5

114 Louisiana-Lafayette 21.4

115 Buffalo 19.7

116 New Mexico 17.4

117 New Mexico St 16.2

118 Eastern Michigan 14.6

119 Memphis 12.8

120 Akron 10.7


FCS rankings

1 Delaware 46.4


2 William & Mary 44.8

3 Villanova 44.0

4 James Madison 43.8

5 New Hampshire 42.8

6 Massachusetts 36.9

7 Rhode Island 33.6

8 Montana St 33.6

9 Georgia Southern 32.7

10 Appalachian St 32.6

11 Pennsylvania 32.3

12 Wofford 31.5

13 Maine 31.3

14 Western Illinois 31.0

15 Richmond 30.8

16 Northern Arizona 30.6

17 South Dakota St 30.5

18 Liberty 30.1

19 Eastern Washington 29.4

20 Sacramento St 29.4

21 Jacksonville St 29.2

22 North Dakota St 28.9

23 Furman 28.0

24 Chattanooga 27.8

25 Southern Utah 27.7

26 Elon 27.1

27 Stephen F. Austin 26.9

28 Montana 26.6

29 Northern Iowa 26.6

30 SE Missouri St 26.0

31 Old Dominion 25.9

32 Lehigh 25.4

33 Eastern Kentucky 25.0

34 Brown 24.7

35 Robert Morris 24.3

36 Cal Poly SLO 23.8

37 Southern Illinois 23.8

38 Harvard 23.8

39 Missouri St 23.2

40 Weber St 22.8

41 North Dakota 22.2

42 Murray St 22.1

43 South Dakota 22.1

44 Dayton 21.4

45 Youngstown St 21.4

46 McNeese St 21.3

47 Indiana St 20.9

48 Stony Brook 20.9

49 Jacksonville FL 20.7

50 UC-Davis 20.3

51 Yale 20.0

52 Coastal Carolina 19.9

53 Towson 19.6

54 Dartmouth 19.5

55 Albany NY 19.2

56 Samford 19.1

57 Illinois St 18.9

58 Fordham 18.8

59 Bryant 18.4

60 Duquesne 18.3

61 Monmouth NJ 18.1

62 Tennessee Tech 17.8

63 Northern Colorado 17.8

64 Central Conn St 17.6

65 Central Arkansas 17.4

66 Texas St-San Marcos 17.1

67 Sam Houston St 17.0

68 Columbia 16.7

69 Tennessee-Martin 16.5

70 Grambling St 15.8

71 Holy Cross 15.8

72 Colgate 15.7

73 Portland St 15.2

74 Lafayette 15.1

75 Bethune-Cookman 14.9

76 Jackson St 14.8

77 SE Louisiana St 14.6

78 Sacred Heart 13.4

79 Drake 13.0

80 Wagner 12.6

81 Texas Southern 11.4

82 Eastern Illinois 11.3

83 Northwestern St 11.3

84 Tennessee St 11.0

85 Idaho St 10.6

86 Georgetown DC 10.5

87 South Carolina St 10.0

88 Prairie View A&M 9.2

89 Gardner-Webb 8.5

90 San Diego 8.3

91 Lamar 8.2

92 Princeton 7.8

93 The Citadel 7.5

94 Western Carolina 6.7

95 Alcorn St 6.7

96 Florida A&M 6.2

97 Nicholls St 6.2

98 Cornell NY 5.8

99 St Francis PA 5.3

100 Alabama St 4.7

101 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 4.7

102 Hampton 4.6

103 Charleston Southern 4.3

104 VMI 4.0

105 Campbell 3.7

106 Presbyterian 3.4

107 d2 3.1

108 Marist 2.8

109 Bucknell 2.6

110 Morehead St 2.5

111 Austin Peay 2.1

112 Butler 2.0

113 Norfolk St 1.2

114 Alabama A&M 0.1

115 North Carolina Central - 1.9

116 Delaware St - 4.0

117 Southern U. - 4.2

118 Morgan St - 4.4

119 Davidson - 5.6

120 Howard - 9.4

121 North Carolina A&T - 9.9

122 Valparaiso - 15.1

123 Mississippi Valley St - 21.4

124 Savannah St - 22.1

Week 13 Noah Chain ratings

Here they are Oregon are number 1 with Stanford number 2
Scores courtesy of Peter Wolfe


1 Oregon 0.9189


2 Stanford 0.9123

3 Auburn 0.9082

4 Arkansas 0.8976

5 Oklahoma 0.8956

6 TCU 0.8889

7 Texas A&M 0.8858

8 Oklahoma st 0.8823

9 Wisconsin 0.8628

10 Ohio state 0.8627

11 Missouri 0.8610

12 Nebraska 0.8548

13 Alabama 0.8535

14 LSU 0.8493

15 Boise st 0.8348

16 Michigan st 0.8286

17 South Carolina 0.7754

18 Virginia Tech 0.7711

19 Mississippi st 0.7671

20 Nevada 0.7597

21 Baylor 0.7547

22 Arizona 0.7518

23 Utah 0.7447

24 Texas Tech 0.7417

25 Washington 0.7059

26 Kansas st 0.7025

27 Florida st 0.6986

28 Southern Cal 0.6983

29 Michigan 0.6940

30 Iowa 0.6932

31 Air Force 0.6828

32 Texas 0.6816

33 Florida 0.6717

34 Oregon st 0.6561

35 Penn state 0.6508

36 Notre Dame 0.6505

37 Iowa st 0.6298

38 UCLA 0.6115

39 Northwestern 0.6040

40 California 0.6020

41 Colorado 0.5982

42 Arizona St 0.5963

43 Illinois 0.5945

44 Tennessee 0.5940

45 North Carolina St 0.5909

46 Hawai`i 0.5889

47 North Carolina 0.5885

48 Georgia 0.5792

49 Maryland 0.5790

50 Kentucky 0.5781

51 Miami FL 0.5727

52 Navy 0.5689

53 Northern Illinois 0.5672

54 Tulsa 0.5607

55 West Virginia 0.5547

56 San Diego st 0.5482

57 Clemson 0.5366

58 Central Florida 0.5299

59 Brigham Young 0.5258

60 Boston College 0.5056

61 Fresno st 0.4824

62 South Florida 0.4740

63 Minnesota 0.4736

64 SMU 0.4569

65 Mississippi 0.4543

66 East Carolina 0.4429

67 Toledo 0.4390

68 Georgia Tech 0.4369

69 Pittsburgh 0.4337

70 Purdue 0.4331

71 Temple 0.4233

72 Indiana 0.4227

73 Kansas 0.4138

74 Connecticut 0.4092

75 Syracuse 0.4013

76 Southern Miss 0.3924

77 Louisville 0.3659

78 Miami OH 0.3538

79 Washington st 0.3522

80 Houston 0.3426

81 Utah st 0.3228

82 Army 0.3206

83 Duke 0.3130

84 Cincinnati 0.3098

85 Virginia 0.3090

86 Ohio U. 0.3022

87 Idaho 0.3001

88 Rice 0.2895

89 Louisiana Tech 0.2765

90 Vanderbilt 0.2611

91 Wake Forest 0.2590

92 Wyoming 0.2511

93 Rutgers 0.2470

94 Marshall 0.2423

95 UTEP 0.2404

96 Colorado st 0.2347

97 UNLV 0.2294

98 Tulane 0.2272

99 Kent st 0.2242

100 Western Michigan 0.2214

101 Florida Int'l 0.1995

102 Alabama-Birmingham 0.1964

103 Troy 0.1852

104 San José St 0.1431

105 New Mexico 0.1271

106 New Mexico st 0.1252

107 Louisiana-Monroe 0.1237

108 Florida Atlantic 0.1217

109 aa 0.1192

110 Ball St 0.1166

111 Middle Tennessee St 0.1156

112 Arkansas St 0.1134

113 Central Michigan 0.1097

114 Bowling Green 0.1075

115 Eastern Michigan 0.0895

116 Memphis 0.0858

117 Buffalo 0.0806

118 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0797

119 North Texas 0.0785

120 Akron 0.0764

121 Western Kentucky 0.0601

Sunday, 21 November 2010

Week 12 Pointshare standings

Here they are home field advantage is 3.2 points.
The FBS  has Oregon 4 points better than Boise and they in turn  are 5 points better than TCU.
In the FCS the CAA dominates probably due to James Madison's defeat of Virginia Tech.


home field advantage is 3.2 points

FBS

Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent


1 Oregon 72.4

2 Boise St 68.4

3 TCU 63.5

4 Stanford 60.7

5 Auburn 59.7

6 Virginia Tech 58.8

7 Alabama 58.0

8 Ohio State 57.0

9 Arkansas 56.4

10 Wisconsin 55.4

11 Oregon St 55.1

12 South Carolina 55.1

13 Nebraska 55.1

14 Nevada 54.3

15 LSU 54.0

16 Arizona St 53.7

17 California 53.3

18 Missouri 53.1

19 Southern Cal 52.9

20 Oklahoma St 52.6

21 Iowa 52.5

22 Oklahoma 51.9

23 Texas A&M 51.1

24 Arizona 51.0

25 Michigan St 50.0

26 North Carolina St 49.9

27 San Diego St 49.8

28 Miami FL 49.8

29 Clemson 49.8

30 Florida St 49.7

31 Pittsburgh 47.8

32 West Virginia 47.2

33 Mississippi St 46.9

34 Utah 46.7

35 Georgia 46.2

36 Florida 46.1

37 Air Force 45.8

38 Notre Dame 45.1

39 North Carolina 45.1

40 Kentucky 45.1

41 Hawai`i 44.6

42 Illinois 44.3

43 Georgia Tech 42.7

44 Central Florida 42.7

45 Washington St 42.5

46 Navy 42.4

47 Texas 42.0

48 Washington 42.0

49 Northern Illinois 41.8

50 Kansas St 41.8

51 Mississippi 41.1

52 UCLA 41.1

53 Maryland 41.0

54 Louisville 40.8

55 Michigan 40.7

56 Tennessee 40.0

57 Texas Tech 39.7

58 Southern Miss 39.3

59 Iowa St 39.2

60 Connecticut 39.2

61 Fresno St 39.2

62 Syracuse 39.2

63 Virginia 39.2

64 Boston College 39.1

65 Tulsa 38.7

66 Penn State 38.6

67 Temple 38.3

68 Cincinnati 38.3

69 SMU 38.2

70 Northwestern 38.2

71 Colorado 38.1

72 South Florida 37.3

73 Baylor 36.8

74 Brigham Young 36.7

75 East Carolina 36.5

76 Ohio U. 35.4

77 Florida Int'l 35.3

78 Troy 34.9

79 Purdue 34.0

80 Houston 33.5

81 Rutgers 33.3

82 Utah St 33.0

83 Duke 32.9

84 Minnesota 32.9

85 Army 32.5

86 Alabama-Birmingham 32.5

87 Louisiana Tech 31.6

88 Central Michigan 30.9

89 Toledo 30.7

90 Indiana 30.7

91 Arkansas St 30.3

92 Idaho 29.7

93 UTEP 29.4

94 Vanderbilt 29.2

95 Kansas 29.0

96 Florida Atlantic 28.4

97 Marshall 27.8

98 Wyoming 27.2

99 San José St 27.1

100 Western Michigan 26.9

101 Colorado St 26.5

102 Bowling Green 26.3

103 Wake Forest 26.3

104 Louisiana-Monroe 25.7

105 Miami OH 25.0

106 Rice 24.5

107 Kent St 23.2

108 Ball St 23.0

109 North Texas 22.3

110 Tulane 22.3

111 Western Kentucky 22.2

112 UNLV 21.8

113 Louisiana-Lafayette 21.8

114 Buffalo 21.6

115 Middle Tennessee St 20.5

116 New Mexico 17.6

117 New Mexico St 15.6

118 Eastern Michigan 15.6

119 Memphis 11.9

120 Akron 8.5

FCS
 
1 Delaware 48.2


2 William & Mary 46.6

3 James Madison 45.9

4 Villanova 45.8

5 New Hampshire 44.7

6 Massachusetts 38.7

7 Rhode Island 35.4

8 Pennsylvania 33.9

9 Montana St 33.8

10 Maine 33.2

11 Appalachian St 32.7

12 Richmond 32.6

13 Georgia Southern 32.6

14 Liberty 32.1

15 Wofford 31.5

16 Western Illinois 30.9

17 Northern Arizona 30.5

18 South Dakota St 30.4

19 Jacksonville St 29.4

20 Robert Morris 29.2

21 Sacramento St 29.1

22 Eastern Washington 28.6

23 North Dakota St 27.8

24 Old Dominion 27.7

25 Furman 27.7

26 Chattanooga 27.7

27 Stephen F. Austin 27.6

28 Northern Iowa 27.4

29 Southern Utah 27.4

30 Elon 27.3

31 Montana 26.5

32 Brown 26.3

33 SE Missouri St 26.2

34 Eastern Kentucky 25.1

35 Lehigh 25.1

36 Harvard 25.1

37 Dayton 24.9

38 Cal Poly SLO 24.0

39 Southern Illinois 23.9

40 Missouri St 23.1

41 Weber St 22.7

42 Jacksonville FL 22.6

43 Stony Brook 22.4

44 Murray St 22.3

45 North Dakota 22.1

46 Youngstown St 21.7

47 McNeese St 21.5

48 Yale 21.5

49 Towson 21.5

50 Coastal Carolina 21.4

51 Albany NY 21.4

52 Bryant 21.3

53 Dartmouth 21.1

54 Monmouth NJ 21.0

55 Duquesne 20.9

56 South Dakota 20.8

57 Indiana St 20.8

58 Central Conn St 20.3

59 Fordham 20.1

60 UC-Davis 20.0

61 Samford 19.1

62 Illinois St 18.6

63 Columbia 18.3

64 Tennessee Tech 18.1

65 Northern Colorado 17.8

66 Central Arkansas 17.6

67 Sam Houston St 17.4

68 Texas St-San Marcos 17.3

69 Colgate 17.2

70 Holy Cross 17.2

71 Tennessee-Martin 16.7

72 Bethune-Cookman 16.5

73 Lafayette 16.5

74 Sacred Heart 16.3

75 Grambling St 16.0

76 Jackson St 15.4

77 Wagner 15.1

78 Drake 15.1

79 Portland St 15.1

80 SE Louisiana St 15.0

81 South Carolina St 12.4

82 Texas Southern 12.1

83 Georgetown DC 12.1

84 Eastern Illinois 11.8

85 Northwestern St 11.5

86 Tennessee St 11.3

87 San Diego 10.7

88 Idaho St 10.3

89 Prairie View A&M 10.0

90 Gardner-Webb 9.5

91 Princeton 8.9

92 Lamar 7.9

93 The Citadel 7.7

94 Florida A&M 7.6

95 St Francis PA 7.5

96 Alcorn St 7.3

97 Cornell NY 7.3

98 Western Carolina 6.8

99 Alabama St 6.5

100 Nicholls St 6.4

101 Hampton 6.2

102 Campbell 5.9

103 Morehead St 5.4

104 Marist 5.4

105 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 5.2

106 Presbyterian 5.0

107 VMI 4.9

108 Charleston Southern 4.9

109 Bucknell 4.3

110 Butler 4.0

111 d2 3.6

112 Norfolk St 2.5

113 Austin Peay 2.2

114 Alabama A&M 0.7

115 North Carolina Central -0.7

116 Delaware St -2.6

117 Southern U. -2.7

118 Davidson -3.2

119 Morgan St -3.7

120 Howard -8.3

121 North Carolina A&T -8.7

122 Valparaiso -12.9

123 Savannah St -20.7

124 Mississippi Valley St -20.7

Week 12 Noah Chain ratings

Here they are scores courtesy of Peter Wolfe.

1 Oregon 0.8841


2 Stanford 0.8834

3 Oklahoma st 0.8801

4 TCU 0.8703

5 Auburn 0.8686

6 Oklahoma 0.8631

7 Texas A&M 0.8610

8 Arkansas 0.8465

9 Nebraska 0.8428

10 Missouri 0.8412

11 Boise st 0.8393

12 LSU 0.8352

13 Alabama 0.8160

14 Wisconsin 0.8156

15 Ohio state 0.8154

16 Michigan st 0.7913

17 Arizona 0.7561

18 Virginia Tech 0.7535

19 Baylor 0.7512

20 South Carolina 0.7400

21 Texas Tech 0.7286

22 Iowa 0.7268

23 Southern Cal 0.7268

24 Mississippi st 0.7161

25 Utah 0.7100

26 Kansas st 0.7062

27 Texas 0.6876

28 Florida st 0.6823

29 Florida 0.6773

30 Nevada 0.6754

31 Michigan 0.6732

32 Washington 0.6725

33 Air Force 0.6596

34 Oregon st 0.6533

35 UCLA 0.6450

36 California 0.6422

37 North Carolina St 0.6369

38 Iowa st 0.6367

39 Penn state 0.6349

40 Miami FL 0.6186

41 North Carolina 0.6104

42 Colorado 0.6102

43 Kentucky 0.5919

44 Northwestern 0.5903

45 Hawai`i 0.5848

46 Notre Dame 0.5788

47 Illinois 0.5748

48 Tennessee 0.5665

49 Clemson 0.5654

50 Central Florida 0.5651

51 Navy 0.5636

52 San Diego st 0.5470

53 Maryland 0.5427

54 Arizona St 0.5404

55 Brigham Young 0.5369

56 Georgia 0.5330

57 Northern Illinois 0.5304

58 Tulsa 0.5248

59 West Virginia 0.5242

60 Temple 0.5002

61 Mississippi 0.4954

62 East Carolina 0.4941

63 Boston College 0.4909

64 Fresno st 0.4899

65 Georgia Tech 0.4898

66 Southern Miss 0.4673

67 Pittsburgh 0.4628

68 Kansas 0.4533

69 Purdue 0.4316

70 South Florida 0.4275

71 SMU 0.4235

72 Connecticut 0.4194

73 Syracuse 0.4156

74 Toledo 0.4153

75 Indiana 0.4063

76 Minnesota 0.3903

77 Washington st 0.3818

78 Louisville 0.3668

79 Ohio U. 0.3658

80 Army 0.3596

81 Duke 0.3567

82 Cincinnati 0.3566

83 Virginia 0.3546

84 Houston 0.3538

85 Miami OH 0.3508

86 Utah st 0.3507

87 Vanderbilt 0.3470

88 Idaho 0.3302

89 Louisiana Tech 0.3201

90 Rice 0.2962

91 Rutgers 0.2900

92 Tulane 0.2875

93 Wake Forest 0.2864

94 Colorado st 0.2604

95 Wyoming 0.2594

96 UNLV 0.2585

97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.2530

98 UTEP 0.2522

99 Marshall 0.2498

100 Florida Int'l 0.2318

101 Troy 0.2198

102 Western Michigan 0.2063

103 Kent st 0.1992

104 San José St 0.1932

105 Louisiana-Monroe 0.1826

106 Florida Atlantic 0.1680

107 New Mexico st 0.1597

108 New Mexico 0.1509

109 Arkansas St 0.1453

110 aa 0.1446

111 Bowling Green 0.1379

112 Central Michigan 0.1348

113 Ball St 0.1322

114 Buffalo 0.1196

115 Middle Tennessee St 0.1144

116 Eastern Michigan 0.1134

117 Memphis 0.1069

118 North Texas 0.1010

119 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0892

120 Western Kentucky 0.0875

121 Akron 0.0809

Sunday, 14 November 2010

NEW ranking system Pointshare MOV for FBS and FCS College football teams.

Pointshare MOV college football rating system

This system uses margin of victory and takes venue into account. Therefore it is probably not BCS compliant but it may reflect the strength of teams better. The system combines a game outcome function which is similar approach to the Massey MOV and Sauceda rating systems (although I don’t know how their GOFs are derived) but also uses a method similar to the Random walker method to determine the overall rating.




Each game score is converted to a performance level or Game outcome function depending on the score. This is done by determining the likelihood of a teams true scoring rate in a game given the number of points it actually scored and then determining how likely the winning team would be to win a re-match given the distribution of true scoring rates of it and its opponents. (See table in the document on google docs linked on the right side panel of my blog.)

Game scores are kindly provided by Peter Wolfe on his website.

When two teams play their ratings are pooled and then redistributed based on the game outcome. So if a 100 rating team plays a 200 rating team but achieves a game outcome of 40% their new rating is 120 (40% of 100+200) and their opponent drops to 180 despite winning the game. I think this is a similar method to the random walker method except they use a single value for all games regardless of the score.

A teams overall rating is calculated iteratively and is equal to its average performance against all opponents plus the sum of the product of each opponents rating by the game performance against each opponent divided by all games.

R(new)= R(old)*average GOF+ (Ra*GOFa + Rb*GOFb+…..+Rn*GOFn)/n

Where GOFa is the teams game outcome function against team a and Ra is team A’s old rating.

This converges very quickly for the c.240 teams in the FBS and FCS. Each team starts with a rating of 100
Home field advantage

In college football the GOF of home teams is approximately 1.4 times that of the away team in CONFERENCE games. Non Conference games are ignored as strong teams tend to play at home against weaker teams. So the GOF for home teams are reduced to reflect this which means a narrow win at home will see a team have an adjusted GOF below 50%.
Conversion to pointspread equivalent.

I noticed that the relationship between the odds of winning (moneyline) and the point spread is 9*lnODDS=-p where lnODDS is the natural log of the ratio of odds or ratings in this case and p is the pointspread. Therefore the rating can be converted to a pointspread equivalent quite easily. This also means that the 1.4 advantage home teams have translates to 3 points which is similar to the usual convention for HFA.

Here are the ratings and pointspread equivalent for teams in the FBS and FCS (scroll down) with all division 2 or lower teams grouped together as D2.


The top two teams are Oregon and TCU with Boise 3rd and Stanford 4th ahead of Auburn.


FBS Team Rating Pointspread equivalent


1 Oregon 5184.345 77.6

2 TCU 1783.151 67.9

3 Boise St 1480.828 66.2

4 Stanford 683.2115 59.2

5 Auburn 528.369 56.9

6 Oregon St 474.0888 55.9

7 Virginia Tech 468.21 55.8

8 Arizona St 459.5909 55.6

9 Nebraska 423.9733 54.9

10 Alabama 420.518 54.8

11 Iowa 410.2021 54.6

12 Ohio State 396.6969 54.3

13 Southern Cal 385.2052 54.0

14 Wisconsin 384.0203 54.0

15 Nevada 354.8422 53.3

16 Arkansas 334.2194 52.7

17 LSU 331.9776 52.7

18 Arizona 295.5589 51.6

19 South Carolina 266.8526 50.7

20 Oklahoma St 256.8332 50.3

21 Missouri 245.3054 49.9

22 California 239.2264 49.7

23 Michigan St 231.0137 49.4

24 Miami FL 227.4956 49.2

25 Oklahoma 223.3273 49.1

26 North Carolina St 215.8896 48.8

27 Florida St 211.0954 48.6

28 Clemson 203.5851 48.2

29 Texas A&M 184.1575 47.3

30 Mississippi St 183.0386 47.3

31 Pittsburgh 179.9845 47.1

32 Utah 176.6787 47.0

33 Florida 156.513 45.9

34 North Carolina 156.0809 45.8

35 Georgia 139.3473 44.8

36 Central Florida 138.7531 44.8

37 Georgia Tech 122.221 43.6

38 Air Force 120.7216 43.5

39 Hawai`i 113.9912 43.0

40 West Virginia 113.0832 42.9

41 San Diego St 112.1459 42.8

42 Kansas St 111.8281 42.8

43 Kentucky 110.7044 42.7

44 UCLA 107.7623 42.5

45 Illinois 107.5116 42.4

46 Texas 106.27 42.3

47 Washington 102.5637 42.0

48 Louisville 97.99605 41.6

49 Navy 93.60627 41.2

50 Virginia 92.61492 41.1

51 Iowa St 90.82699 40.9

52 Notre Dame 87.9878 40.6

53 Michigan 84.28704 40.2

54 Texas Tech 75.56445 39.2

55 Maryland 74.12913 39.1

56 Syracuse 70.86747 38.7

57 Baylor 70.79884 38.7

58 Mississippi 70.72381 38.6

59 Washington St 68.17595 38.3

60 SMU 67.47738 38.2

61 Northern Illinois 66.71846 38.1

62 Cincinnati 63.40854 37.7

63 Penn State 62.49354 37.5

64 Boston College 61.75472 37.4

65 Troy 61.69796 37.4

66 Temple 60.47248 37.2

67 Tulsa 60.42331 37.2

68 Fresno St 55.32269 36.4

69 Tennessee 52.34927 35.9

70 Houston 49.41053 35.4

71 East Carolina 49.10417 35.3

72 South Florida 45.52647 34.6

73 Colorado 41.79995 33.9

74 Brigham Young 41.65948 33.8

75 Indiana 39.85539 33.4

76 Army 38.74808 33.2

77 Rutgers 38.32826 33.1

78 Northwestern 38.12959 33.0

79 Duke 35.84988 32.5

80 Southern Miss 34.54513 32.1

81 Alabama-Birmingham 34.52837 32.1

82 Connecticut 34.18765 32.0

83 Arkansas St 33.99982 32.0

84 Utah St 33.47433 31.9

85 Ohio U. 32.96159 31.7

86 Florida Int'l 29.00454 30.6

87 Florida Atlantic 24.24935 28.9

88 Louisiana Tech 23.86547 28.8

89 Minnesota 23.20565 28.5

90 UTEP 22.08929 28.1

91 Toledo 21.90047 28.0

92 Kansas 21.06992 27.7

93 Purdue 19.90891 27.1

94 Wake Forest 19.90112 27.1

95 San José St 19.29113 26.9

96 Bowling Green 19.08979 26.8

97 Vanderbilt 18.92456 26.7

98 Idaho 18.89344 26.7

99 Louisiana-Monroe 17.91419 26.2

100 Marshall 16.79223 25.6

101 Central Michigan 16.22787 25.3

102 Kent St 15.42221 24.8

103 Wyoming 14.50737 24.3

104 Colorado St 14.49087 24.3

105 Miami OH 12.0856 22.6

106 North Texas 11.90037 22.5

107 Tulane 11.77297 22.4

108 Buffalo 11.59121 22.2

109 Western Michigan 11.46501 22.1

110 Louisiana-Lafayette 11.02512 21.8

111 Rice 9.25393 20.2

112 Middle Tennessee St 9.117041 20.1

113 Ball St 8.834057 19.8

114 Western Kentucky 8.375797 19.3

115 UNLV 6.891802 17.5

116 New Mexico St 5.151725 14.9

117 New Mexico 4.558932 13.8

118 Eastern Michigan 4.249599 13.1

119 Memphis 2.700606 9.0

120 Akron 2.258519 7.4

 
 
FCS
 Team Rating Pointspread equivalent


1 Delaware 196.3728 47.9

2 William & Mary 143.0451 45.0

3 James Madison 116.5738 43.2

4 Villanova 112.7004 42.9

5 New Hampshire 93.10309 41.1

6 Massachusetts 72.89346 38.9

7 Rhode Island 41.29325 33.8

8 Appalachian St 37.70898 32.9

9 Liberty 34.1405 32.0

10 Wofford 32.93466 31.7

11 Richmond 31.68418 31.4

12 Montana St 31.21334 31.2

13 Georgia Southern 31.17817 31.2

14 Pennsylvania 29.86806 30.8

15 Maine 28.86465 30.5

16 Northern Arizona 28.84453 30.5

17 Jacksonville St 27.02577 29.9

18 Robert Morris 26.36138 29.7

19 Western Illinois 25.80148 29.5

20 South Dakota St 25.48472 29.4

21 Sacramento St 23.00522 28.5

22 Chattanooga 21.67159 27.9

23 Eastern Washington 20.02833 27.2

24 Old Dominion 19.74105 27.1

25 Southern Utah 18.96295 26.7

26 Elon 18.69918 26.6

27 Harvard 17.65648 26.1

28 Northern Iowa 17.47587 26.0

29 Furman 17.16505 25.8

30 Montana 16.99293 25.7

31 North Dakota St 16.52577 25.5

32 Dayton 16.11616 25.2

33 Eastern Kentucky 15.36893 24.8

34 Stephen F. Austin 14.91009 24.5

35 Brown 14.06444 24.0

36 Cal Poly SLO 13.34919 23.5

37 SE Missouri St 13.03418 23.3

38 Lehigh 12.56006 23.0

39 Jacksonville FL 12.54061 22.9

40 Bethune-Cookman 12.49424 22.9

41 Missouri St 11.87692 22.5

42 Stony Brook 11.59604 22.2

43 Murray St 10.69802 21.5

44 North Dakota 10.58629 21.4

45 Yale 10.20351 21.1

46 Weber St 10.09802 21.0

47 Monmouth NJ 9.877297 20.8

48 Samford 9.874905 20.8

49 Fordham 9.776825 20.7

50 Youngstown St 9.723647 20.6

51 Indiana St 9.620118 20.5

52 Dartmouth 8.693037 19.6

53 McNeese St 8.590172 19.5

54 Bryant 8.262883 19.2

55 South Dakota 8.152946 19.0

56 Columbia 8.023212 18.9

57 Towson 7.885754 18.7

58 Albany NY 7.77814 18.6

59 Duquesne 7.717862 18.5

60 Central Conn St 7.44113 18.2

61 Southern Illinois 7.373818 18.1

62 Central Arkansas 7.044184 17.7

63 Illinois St 6.902038 17.5

64 Texas St-San Marcos 6.803899 17.4

65 UC-Davis 6.393878 16.8

66 SE Louisiana St 6.203556 16.6

67 Lafayette 5.864756 16.1

68 Northern Colorado 5.718477 15.8

69 Grambling St 5.585114 15.6

70 Wagner 5.534818 15.5

71 Portland St 5.436309 15.4

72 Sam Houston St 5.405838 15.3

73 Drake 5.300539 15.1

74 Sacred Heart 4.951917 14.5

75 Holy Cross 4.860824 14.3

76 Tennessee-Martin 4.846951 14.3

77 Northwestern St 4.609059 13.9

78 Colgate 4.020088 12.6

79 Georgetown DC 3.949832 12.5

80 Tennessee Tech 3.815384 12.2

81 Jackson St 3.77406 12.1

82 Coastal Carolina 3.683858 11.8

83 Eastern Illinois 3.308669 10.9

84 South Carolina St 3.288947 10.8

85 Idaho St 3.135481 10.4

86 San Diego 3.033644 10.1

87 Gardner-Webb 2.858926 9.5

88 Texas Southern 2.618991 8.7

89 Tennessee St 2.558959 8.5

90 Western Carolina 2.311307 7.6

91 Alcorn St 2.263344 7.4

92 Hampton 2.237488 7.3

93 St Francis PA 2.134439 6.9

94 Prairie View A&M 1.998817 6.3

95 Princeton 1.984008 6.2

96 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 1.84588 5.6

97 Charleston Southern 1.831888 5.5

98 Cornell NY 1.790031 5.3

99 Alabama St 1.703315 4.8

100 Bucknell 1.695328 4.8

101 The Citadel 1.645554 4.5

102 Morehead St 1.622142 4.4

103 Lamar 1.5629 4.1

104 Presbyterian 1.546238 4.0

105 VMI 1.43587 3.3

106 d2 1.421353 3.2

107 Norfolk St 1.387988 3.0

108 Campbell 1.245819 2.0

109 Butler 1.231235 1.9

110 Nicholls St 1.204719 1.7

111 Marist 1.174381 1.5

112 Alabama A&M 1.075315 0.7

113 Austin Peay 0.907895 - 0.9

114 Florida A&M 0.861907 - 1.3

115 North Carolina Central 0.743629 - 2.7

116 Davidson 0.691645 - 3.3

117 Morgan St 0.609259 - 4.5

118 Delaware St 0.549618 - 5.4

119 Southern U. 0.54439 - 5.5

120 North Carolina A&T 0.346754 - 9.6

121 Howard 0.317541 - 10.4

122 Valparaiso 0.248934 - 12.6

123 Mississippi Valley St 0.085923 - 22.3

124 Savannah St 0.052963 - 26.7

week 11 NoahChain ratings

Here they are Auburn and TCU are in the top 2 slots

1 Auburn 0.7904


2 TCU 0.7827

3 Nebraska 0.7802

4 Oklahoma st 0.7743

5 LSU 0.7604

6 Stanford 0.7555

7 Oregon 0.7518

8 Oklahoma 0.7356

9 Boise st 0.7316

10 Kansas st 0.7132

11 Missouri 0.7119

12 Arizona 0.7050

13 Alabama 0.7027

14 Iowa 0.7023

15 Arkansas 0.7006

16 Utah 0.6987

17 Wisconsin 0.6973

18 Texas A&M 0.6931

19 Baylor 0.6904

20 Michigan st 0.6893

21 Ohio state 0.6857

22 Mississippi st 0.6673

23 Virginia Tech 0.6659

24 Texas Tech 0.6616

25 Iowa st 0.6555

26 Texas 0.6519

27 South Carolina 0.6371

28 Florida 0.6255

29 North Carolina 0.6218

30 UCLA 0.6186

31 North Carolina St 0.6148

32 Oregon st 0.6132

33 Miami FL 0.6121

34 Air Force 0.6077

35 Southern Cal 0.6076

36 Florida st 0.6043

37 Central Florida 0.6041

38 Michigan 0.5996

39 Penn state 0.5844

40 Nevada 0.5836

41 East Carolina 0.5716

42 Illinois 0.5632

43 California 0.5623

44 Clemson 0.5594

45 Temple 0.5579

46 Washington 0.5556

47 Hawai`i 0.5518

48 San Diego st 0.5427

49 Kentucky 0.5407

50 Navy 0.5375

51 Maryland 0.5360

52 Pittsburgh 0.5265

53 Northern Illinois 0.5258

54 West Virginia 0.5197

55 Georgia Tech 0.5133

56 Mississippi 0.5069

57 Georgia 0.5062

58 Northwestern 0.5059

59 Brigham Young 0.5022

60 Fresno st 0.4978

61 Arizona St 0.4976

62 Colorado 0.4923

63 Tennessee 0.4900

64 South Florida 0.4888

65 Notre Dame 0.4880

66 Syracuse 0.4861

67 Tulsa 0.4860

68 Indiana 0.4742

69 Kansas 0.4641

70 Toledo 0.4628

71 Southern Miss 0.4610

72 Boston College 0.4607

73 Louisville 0.4604

74 Houston 0.4586

75 Army 0.4467

76 Purdue 0.4424

77 Virginia 0.4386

78 Ohio U. 0.4372

79 Connecticut 0.4356

80 Cincinnati 0.4263

81 Duke 0.4247

82 Vanderbilt 0.4173

83 Miami OH 0.4157

84 Utah st 0.4113

85 SMU 0.4111

86 Rutgers 0.3994

87 Colorado st 0.3884

88 Marshall 0.3825

89 Troy 0.3781

90 Minnesota 0.3780

91 Louisiana Tech 0.3746

92 Wake Forest 0.3731

93 Idaho 0.3723

94 Kent st 0.3697

95 Washington st 0.3563

96 Wyoming 0.3516

97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3412

98 Buffalo 0.3401

99 Tulane 0.3308

100 UNLV 0.3294

101 San José St 0.3243

102 UTEP 0.3236

103 Rice 0.3221

104 Arkansas St 0.3214

105 Florida Int'l 0.3131

106 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3104

107 Bowling Green 0.3009

108 Western Michigan 0.2854

109 New Mexico st 0.2714

110 Florida Atlantic 0.2637

111 Middle Tennessee St 0.2608

112 Central Michigan 0.2607

113 Memphis 0.2597

114 New Mexico 0.2493

115 aa 0.2419

116 Ball St 0.2279

117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2190

118 Eastern Michigan 0.2187

119 North Texas 0.1851

120 Akron 0.1809

121 Western Kentucky 0.1757

Sunday, 7 November 2010

Week 10 rankings

TCU make it to the top of the rankings following their demolition of Utah. 

1 TCU 0.7420


2 Auburn 0.7402

3 Oklahoma 0.7393

4 Nebraska 0.7287

5 Missouri 0.7170

6 LSU 0.6926

7 Arizona 0.6907

8 Oregon 0.6866

9 Boise st 0.6848

10 Stanford 0.6829

11 Oklahoma st 0.6794

12 Iowa 0.6768

13 Michigan st 0.6737

14 Wisconsin 0.6729

15 Utah 0.6689

16 Baylor 0.6566

17 Alabama 0.6535

18 Ohio state 0.6501

19 Mississippi st 0.6481

20 Iowa st 0.6347

21 North Carolina St 0.6312

22 Kansas st 0.6293

23 Texas 0.6271

24 Virginia Tech 0.6244

25 Arkansas 0.6209

26 Oregon st 0.6207

27 Florida st 0.6144

28 South Carolina 0.6081

29 Florida 0.5974

30 Texas Tech 0.5941

31 Central Florida 0.5887

32 East Carolina 0.5886

33 Southern Cal 0.5864

34 Texas A&M 0.5854

35 Air Force 0.5814

36 Nevada 0.5805

37 Illinois 0.5799

38 Miami FL 0.5771

39 North Carolina 0.5694

40 Michigan 0.5667

41 Penn state 0.5639

42 Washington 0.5623

43 Hawai`i 0.5614

44 UCLA 0.5585

45 California 0.5554

46 Temple 0.5457

47 San Diego st 0.5369

48 Northern Illinois 0.5363

49 Colorado 0.5256

50 Maryland 0.5236

51 Pittsburgh 0.5221

52 Northwestern 0.5219

53 Brigham Young 0.5214

54 Kentucky 0.5210

55 Arizona St 0.5163

56 Syracuse 0.5161

57 Georgia 0.5131

58 Tulsa 0.5075

59 Navy 0.5067

60 Georgia Tech 0.5063

61 Toledo 0.5061

62 Clemson 0.5058

63 West Virginia 0.5029

64 Mississippi 0.4922

65 Fresno st 0.4916

66 Notre Dame 0.4906

67 Indiana 0.4889

68 SMU 0.4857

69 Tennessee 0.4816

70 South Florida 0.4804

71 Houston 0.4768

72 Virginia 0.4761

73 Army 0.4666

74 Purdue 0.4662

75 Southern Miss 0.4604

76 Boston College 0.4598

77 Wyoming 0.4523

78 Cincinnati 0.4522

79 Ohio U. 0.4441

80 Louisville 0.4432

81 Connecticut 0.4428

82 Rutgers 0.4413

83 Kansas 0.4341

84 Miami OH 0.4324

85 Utah st 0.4303

86 Vanderbilt 0.4238

87 Troy 0.4176

88 Duke 0.4164

89 Colorado st 0.4144

90 Louisiana Tech 0.4100

91 Wake Forest 0.4075

92 Kent st 0.4020

93 Minnesota 0.3992

94 Washington st 0.3992

95 Idaho 0.3990

96 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3881

97 Tulane 0.3868

98 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3832

99 Western Michigan 0.3813

100 Buffalo 0.3795

101 Rice 0.3743

102 Marshall 0.3656

103 UNLV 0.3617

104 San José St 0.3481

105 Arkansas St 0.3421

106 Middle Tennessee St 0.3314

107 Florida Int'l 0.3234

108 UTEP 0.3224

109 Bowling Green 0.3176

110 New Mexico st 0.3042

111 Memphis 0.3004

112 Florida Atlantic 0.2875

113 aa 0.2860

114 Central Michigan 0.2834

115 Ball St 0.2715

116 Akron 0.2682

117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2678

118 New Mexico 0.2539

119 Eastern Michigan 0.2524

120 Western Kentucky 0.2384

121 North Texas 0.2301