Pointshare MOV college football rating system
This system uses margin of victory and takes venue into account. Therefore it is probably not BCS compliant but it may reflect the strength of teams better. The system combines a game outcome function which is similar approach to the Massey MOV and Sauceda rating systems (although I don’t know how their GOFs are derived) but also uses a method similar to the Random walker method to determine the overall rating.
Each game score is converted to a performance level or Game outcome function depending on the score. This is done by determining the likelihood of a teams true scoring rate in a game given the number of points it actually scored and then determining how likely the winning team would be to win a re-match given the distribution of true scoring rates of it and its opponents. (See table in the document on google docs linked on the right side panel of my blog.)
Game scores are kindly provided by Peter Wolfe on his website.
When two teams play their ratings are pooled and then redistributed based on the game outcome. So if a 100 rating team plays a 200 rating team but achieves a game outcome of 40% their new rating is 120 (40% of 100+200) and their opponent drops to 180 despite winning the game. I think this is a similar method to the random walker method except they use a single value for all games regardless of the score.
A teams overall rating is calculated iteratively and is equal to its average performance against all opponents plus the sum of the product of each opponents rating by the game performance against each opponent divided by all games.
R(new)= R(old)*average GOF+ (Ra*GOFa + Rb*GOFb+…..+Rn*GOFn)/n
Where GOFa is the teams game outcome function against team a and Ra is team A’s old rating.
This converges very quickly for the c.240 teams in the FBS and FCS. Each team starts with a rating of 100
Home field advantage
In college football the GOF of home teams is approximately 1.4 times that of the away team in CONFERENCE games. Non Conference games are ignored as strong teams tend to play at home against weaker teams. So the GOF for home teams are reduced to reflect this which means a narrow win at home will see a team have an adjusted GOF below 50%.
Conversion to pointspread equivalent.
I noticed that the relationship between the odds of winning (moneyline) and the point spread is 9*lnODDS=-p where lnODDS is the natural log of the ratio of odds or ratings in this case and p is the pointspread. Therefore the rating can be converted to a pointspread equivalent quite easily. This also means that the 1.4 advantage home teams have translates to 3 points which is similar to the usual convention for HFA.
Here are the ratings and pointspread equivalent for teams in the FBS and FCS (scroll down) with all division 2 or lower teams grouped together as D2.
The top two teams are Oregon and TCU with Boise 3rd and Stanford 4th ahead of Auburn.
FBS Team Rating Pointspread equivalent
1 Oregon 5184.345 77.6
2 TCU 1783.151 67.9
3 Boise St 1480.828 66.2
4 Stanford 683.2115 59.2
5 Auburn 528.369 56.9
6 Oregon St 474.0888 55.9
7 Virginia Tech 468.21 55.8
8 Arizona St 459.5909 55.6
9 Nebraska 423.9733 54.9
10 Alabama 420.518 54.8
11 Iowa 410.2021 54.6
12 Ohio State 396.6969 54.3
13 Southern Cal 385.2052 54.0
14 Wisconsin 384.0203 54.0
15 Nevada 354.8422 53.3
16 Arkansas 334.2194 52.7
17 LSU 331.9776 52.7
18 Arizona 295.5589 51.6
19 South Carolina 266.8526 50.7
20 Oklahoma St 256.8332 50.3
21 Missouri 245.3054 49.9
22 California 239.2264 49.7
23 Michigan St 231.0137 49.4
24 Miami FL 227.4956 49.2
25 Oklahoma 223.3273 49.1
26 North Carolina St 215.8896 48.8
27 Florida St 211.0954 48.6
28 Clemson 203.5851 48.2
29 Texas A&M 184.1575 47.3
30 Mississippi St 183.0386 47.3
31 Pittsburgh 179.9845 47.1
32 Utah 176.6787 47.0
33 Florida 156.513 45.9
34 North Carolina 156.0809 45.8
35 Georgia 139.3473 44.8
36 Central Florida 138.7531 44.8
37 Georgia Tech 122.221 43.6
38 Air Force 120.7216 43.5
39 Hawai`i 113.9912 43.0
40 West Virginia 113.0832 42.9
41 San Diego St 112.1459 42.8
42 Kansas St 111.8281 42.8
43 Kentucky 110.7044 42.7
44 UCLA 107.7623 42.5
45 Illinois 107.5116 42.4
46 Texas 106.27 42.3
47 Washington 102.5637 42.0
48 Louisville 97.99605 41.6
49 Navy 93.60627 41.2
50 Virginia 92.61492 41.1
51 Iowa St 90.82699 40.9
52 Notre Dame 87.9878 40.6
53 Michigan 84.28704 40.2
54 Texas Tech 75.56445 39.2
55 Maryland 74.12913 39.1
56 Syracuse 70.86747 38.7
57 Baylor 70.79884 38.7
58 Mississippi 70.72381 38.6
59 Washington St 68.17595 38.3
60 SMU 67.47738 38.2
61 Northern Illinois 66.71846 38.1
62 Cincinnati 63.40854 37.7
63 Penn State 62.49354 37.5
64 Boston College 61.75472 37.4
65 Troy 61.69796 37.4
66 Temple 60.47248 37.2
67 Tulsa 60.42331 37.2
68 Fresno St 55.32269 36.4
69 Tennessee 52.34927 35.9
70 Houston 49.41053 35.4
71 East Carolina 49.10417 35.3
72 South Florida 45.52647 34.6
73 Colorado 41.79995 33.9
74 Brigham Young 41.65948 33.8
75 Indiana 39.85539 33.4
76 Army 38.74808 33.2
77 Rutgers 38.32826 33.1
78 Northwestern 38.12959 33.0
79 Duke 35.84988 32.5
80 Southern Miss 34.54513 32.1
81 Alabama-Birmingham 34.52837 32.1
82 Connecticut 34.18765 32.0
83 Arkansas St 33.99982 32.0
84 Utah St 33.47433 31.9
85 Ohio U. 32.96159 31.7
86 Florida Int'l 29.00454 30.6
87 Florida Atlantic 24.24935 28.9
88 Louisiana Tech 23.86547 28.8
89 Minnesota 23.20565 28.5
90 UTEP 22.08929 28.1
91 Toledo 21.90047 28.0
92 Kansas 21.06992 27.7
93 Purdue 19.90891 27.1
94 Wake Forest 19.90112 27.1
95 San José St 19.29113 26.9
96 Bowling Green 19.08979 26.8
97 Vanderbilt 18.92456 26.7
98 Idaho 18.89344 26.7
99 Louisiana-Monroe 17.91419 26.2
100 Marshall 16.79223 25.6
101 Central Michigan 16.22787 25.3
102 Kent St 15.42221 24.8
103 Wyoming 14.50737 24.3
104 Colorado St 14.49087 24.3
105 Miami OH 12.0856 22.6
106 North Texas 11.90037 22.5
107 Tulane 11.77297 22.4
108 Buffalo 11.59121 22.2
109 Western Michigan 11.46501 22.1
110 Louisiana-Lafayette 11.02512 21.8
111 Rice 9.25393 20.2
112 Middle Tennessee St 9.117041 20.1
113 Ball St 8.834057 19.8
114 Western Kentucky 8.375797 19.3
115 UNLV 6.891802 17.5
116 New Mexico St 5.151725 14.9
117 New Mexico 4.558932 13.8
118 Eastern Michigan 4.249599 13.1
119 Memphis 2.700606 9.0
120 Akron 2.258519 7.4
FCS
Team Rating Pointspread equivalent
1 Delaware 196.3728 47.9
2 William & Mary 143.0451 45.0
3 James Madison 116.5738 43.2
4 Villanova 112.7004 42.9
5 New Hampshire 93.10309 41.1
6 Massachusetts 72.89346 38.9
7 Rhode Island 41.29325 33.8
8 Appalachian St 37.70898 32.9
9 Liberty 34.1405 32.0
10 Wofford 32.93466 31.7
11 Richmond 31.68418 31.4
12 Montana St 31.21334 31.2
13 Georgia Southern 31.17817 31.2
14 Pennsylvania 29.86806 30.8
15 Maine 28.86465 30.5
16 Northern Arizona 28.84453 30.5
17 Jacksonville St 27.02577 29.9
18 Robert Morris 26.36138 29.7
19 Western Illinois 25.80148 29.5
20 South Dakota St 25.48472 29.4
21 Sacramento St 23.00522 28.5
22 Chattanooga 21.67159 27.9
23 Eastern Washington 20.02833 27.2
24 Old Dominion 19.74105 27.1
25 Southern Utah 18.96295 26.7
26 Elon 18.69918 26.6
27 Harvard 17.65648 26.1
28 Northern Iowa 17.47587 26.0
29 Furman 17.16505 25.8
30 Montana 16.99293 25.7
31 North Dakota St 16.52577 25.5
32 Dayton 16.11616 25.2
33 Eastern Kentucky 15.36893 24.8
34 Stephen F. Austin 14.91009 24.5
35 Brown 14.06444 24.0
36 Cal Poly SLO 13.34919 23.5
37 SE Missouri St 13.03418 23.3
38 Lehigh 12.56006 23.0
39 Jacksonville FL 12.54061 22.9
40 Bethune-Cookman 12.49424 22.9
41 Missouri St 11.87692 22.5
42 Stony Brook 11.59604 22.2
43 Murray St 10.69802 21.5
44 North Dakota 10.58629 21.4
45 Yale 10.20351 21.1
46 Weber St 10.09802 21.0
47 Monmouth NJ 9.877297 20.8
48 Samford 9.874905 20.8
49 Fordham 9.776825 20.7
50 Youngstown St 9.723647 20.6
51 Indiana St 9.620118 20.5
52 Dartmouth 8.693037 19.6
53 McNeese St 8.590172 19.5
54 Bryant 8.262883 19.2
55 South Dakota 8.152946 19.0
56 Columbia 8.023212 18.9
57 Towson 7.885754 18.7
58 Albany NY 7.77814 18.6
59 Duquesne 7.717862 18.5
60 Central Conn St 7.44113 18.2
61 Southern Illinois 7.373818 18.1
62 Central Arkansas 7.044184 17.7
63 Illinois St 6.902038 17.5
64 Texas St-San Marcos 6.803899 17.4
65 UC-Davis 6.393878 16.8
66 SE Louisiana St 6.203556 16.6
67 Lafayette 5.864756 16.1
68 Northern Colorado 5.718477 15.8
69 Grambling St 5.585114 15.6
70 Wagner 5.534818 15.5
71 Portland St 5.436309 15.4
72 Sam Houston St 5.405838 15.3
73 Drake 5.300539 15.1
74 Sacred Heart 4.951917 14.5
75 Holy Cross 4.860824 14.3
76 Tennessee-Martin 4.846951 14.3
77 Northwestern St 4.609059 13.9
78 Colgate 4.020088 12.6
79 Georgetown DC 3.949832 12.5
80 Tennessee Tech 3.815384 12.2
81 Jackson St 3.77406 12.1
82 Coastal Carolina 3.683858 11.8
83 Eastern Illinois 3.308669 10.9
84 South Carolina St 3.288947 10.8
85 Idaho St 3.135481 10.4
86 San Diego 3.033644 10.1
87 Gardner-Webb 2.858926 9.5
88 Texas Southern 2.618991 8.7
89 Tennessee St 2.558959 8.5
90 Western Carolina 2.311307 7.6
91 Alcorn St 2.263344 7.4
92 Hampton 2.237488 7.3
93 St Francis PA 2.134439 6.9
94 Prairie View A&M 1.998817 6.3
95 Princeton 1.984008 6.2
96 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 1.84588 5.6
97 Charleston Southern 1.831888 5.5
98 Cornell NY 1.790031 5.3
99 Alabama St 1.703315 4.8
100 Bucknell 1.695328 4.8
101 The Citadel 1.645554 4.5
102 Morehead St 1.622142 4.4
103 Lamar 1.5629 4.1
104 Presbyterian 1.546238 4.0
105 VMI 1.43587 3.3
106 d2 1.421353 3.2
107 Norfolk St 1.387988 3.0
108 Campbell 1.245819 2.0
109 Butler 1.231235 1.9
110 Nicholls St 1.204719 1.7
111 Marist 1.174381 1.5
112 Alabama A&M 1.075315 0.7
113 Austin Peay 0.907895 - 0.9
114 Florida A&M 0.861907 - 1.3
115 North Carolina Central 0.743629 - 2.7
116 Davidson 0.691645 - 3.3
117 Morgan St 0.609259 - 4.5
118 Delaware St 0.549618 - 5.4
119 Southern U. 0.54439 - 5.5
120 North Carolina A&T 0.346754 - 9.6
121 Howard 0.317541 - 10.4
122 Valparaiso 0.248934 - 12.6
123 Mississippi Valley St 0.085923 - 22.3
124 Savannah St 0.052963 - 26.7
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