Using pointshare and Noahchain here are my picks in the espn bowl mania competition. I am also in the fox sports and Solid verbal pointspread pickem competitions using the pointshare pointspread equivalent to make the picks agaisnt the spread.
Pointshare
Confidence Pick Predicted winning margin
35 Boise St 19.2
34 Nevada 19
33 Oklahoma 12.9
32 Oregon 11.7
31 Nebraska 10.8
30 Brigham Young 9.3
29 Clemson 8.9
28 Mississippi St 8.1
27 Hawai`i 8
26 Alabama 7.9
25 Illinois 7.5
24 Maryland 7.4
23 TCU 7.3
22 Florida 6.4
21 San Diego St 6.4
20 Miami oh 5.9
19 South Carolina 5.7
18 Air Force 5.4
17 SMU 4.6
16 Stanford 4.6
15 Georgia 4
14 Texas Tech 3.8
13 Florida Int'l 3
12 LSU 2.8
11 Missouri 2.5
10 Louisville 2.4
9 North Carolina 2.4
8 Kansas St 2.3
7 West Virginia 2
6 Pittsburgh 1
5 Fresno St 0.8
4 Miami fl 0.5
3 Oklahoma St 0.4
2 Troy 0.4
1 Ohio State 0.1
Noah Chain
Confidence Pick
35 Oklahoma
34 Brigham Young
33 Kansas St
32 Nevada
31 Air Force
30 Toledo
29 Miami oh
28 Baylor
27 Missouri
26 Texas Tech
25 Oklahoma St
24 Maryland
23 Kentucky
22 SMU
21 Stanford
20 Nebraska
19 Ohio U
18 Boise St
17 Clemson
16 Notre Dame
15 Mississippi St
14 South Carolina
13 Fresno St
12 Hawai`i
11 Florida
10 Arkansas
9 Alabama
8 Southern Miss
7 North Carolina St
6 Texas A&M
5 TCU
4 Tennessee
3 Navy
2 Georgia
1 Oregon
Saturday, 18 December 2010
Week 14 NFL rankings using pointshare
THis includes the Week 15 Thursday game between the 49ers and Chargers.
Injuries and momentum are not taken into account only the results throughout the season.
HFA is 2.1 points
Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent
1 New England Patriots 50.1
2 Pittsburgh Steelers 47.3
3 Green Bay Packers 47.0
4 Baltimore Ravens 46.4
5 Atlanta Falcons 45.7
6 San Diego Chargers 45.6
7 New York Jets 44.8
8 Philadelphia Eagles 44.7
9 Indianapolis Colts 43.7
10 New Orleans Saints 43.4
11 New York Giants 43.1
12 Chicago Bears 42.3
13 Miami Dolphins 41.9
14 Cleveland Browns 41.9
15 Tennessee Titans 41.9
16 Kansas City Chiefs 41.0
17 Houston Texans 39.9
18 Detroit Lions 39.6
19 Jacksonville Jaguars 39.5
20 Dallas Cowboys 39.3
21 Oakland Raiders 39.1
22 Minnesota Vikings 38.7
23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38.6
24 Washington Redskins 38.3
25 Buffalo Bills 37.6
26 St. Louis Rams 37.2
27 Cincinnati Bengals 37.0
28 Denver Broncos 35.4
29 San Francisco 49ers 35.4
30 Seattle Seahawks 34.5
31 Arizona Cardinals 32.3
32 Carolina Panthers 28.5
Injuries and momentum are not taken into account only the results throughout the season.
HFA is 2.1 points
Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent
1 New England Patriots 50.1
2 Pittsburgh Steelers 47.3
3 Green Bay Packers 47.0
4 Baltimore Ravens 46.4
5 Atlanta Falcons 45.7
6 San Diego Chargers 45.6
7 New York Jets 44.8
8 Philadelphia Eagles 44.7
9 Indianapolis Colts 43.7
10 New Orleans Saints 43.4
11 New York Giants 43.1
12 Chicago Bears 42.3
13 Miami Dolphins 41.9
14 Cleveland Browns 41.9
15 Tennessee Titans 41.9
16 Kansas City Chiefs 41.0
17 Houston Texans 39.9
18 Detroit Lions 39.6
19 Jacksonville Jaguars 39.5
20 Dallas Cowboys 39.3
21 Oakland Raiders 39.1
22 Minnesota Vikings 38.7
23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38.6
24 Washington Redskins 38.3
25 Buffalo Bills 37.6
26 St. Louis Rams 37.2
27 Cincinnati Bengals 37.0
28 Denver Broncos 35.4
29 San Francisco 49ers 35.4
30 Seattle Seahawks 34.5
31 Arizona Cardinals 32.3
32 Carolina Panthers 28.5
Sunday, 5 December 2010
Week 14 Pointshare
Here they are Oregon are a clear number one but Auburn's big victory over South Carolina hasn't improved it's ranking by much and it is only in 5th place around 11.5 points behind Oregon.
With HFA at 3.1 Navy are 7 point favourites over army next week accoridng to this system.
Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent
1 Oregon 72.9
2 Boise St 64.8
3 TCU 62.9
4 Stanford 62.1
5 Auburn 61.2
6 Nevada 58.4
7 Alabama 57.9
8 Virginia Tech 57.5
9 Ohio State 57.0
10 Arkansas 56.9
11 Wisconsin 55.6
12 South Carolina 54.9
13 Nebraska 54.6
14 LSU 54.1
15 Arizona St 53.9
16 Oklahoma 53.7
17 Missouri 53.6
18 California 52.6
19 Southern Cal 52.5
20 Oregon St 52.1
21 Texas A&M 51.3
22 Iowa 51.1
23 Oklahoma St 50.6
24 Arizona 50.2
25 Michigan St 50.0
26 San Diego St 49.9
27 West Virginia 49.8
28 Florida St 49.2
29 Clemson 48.0
30 North Carolina St 47.8
31 Mississippi St 47.6
32 Miami FL 47.4
33 Hawai`i 47.4
34 Notre Dame 46.9
35 Air Force 46.7
36 Georgia 46.4
37 Pittsburgh 45.7
38 Utah 45.6
39 Florida 45.0
40 Kentucky 44.7
41 Illinois 43.8
42 Washington 43.8
43 Navy 43.5
44 North Carolina 43.5
45 Central Florida 42.4
46 Maryland 42.2
47 Texas 41.7
48 Georgia Tech 41.3
49 Washington St 41.2
50 Tennessee 41.1
51 Kansas St 41.1
52 Fresno St 41.0
53 Mississippi 41.0
54 Louisville 40.9
55 Connecticut 40.8
56 Northern Illinois 40.2
57 Texas Tech 40.0
58 Michigan 39.5
59 Tulsa 39.4
60 Boston College 39.4
61 South Florida 39.1
62 Brigham Young 38.9
63 Syracuse 38.8
64 Iowa St 38.7
65 Penn State 38.6
66 UCLA 38.6
67 Southern Miss 38.5
68 SMU 38.1
69 Colorado 37.7
70 Virginia 37.0
71 Cincinnati 36.6
72 Temple 36.4
73 Baylor 36.3
74 Northwestern 36.2
75 Minnesota 35.6
76 East Carolina 34.8
77 Troy 34.5
78 Utah St 34.4
79 Florida Int'l 34.3
80 Ohio U. 34.1
81 Purdue 33.7
82 Army 33.5
83 Duke 33.2
84 Louisiana Tech 32.8
85 Houston 32.7
86 Alabama-Birmingham 32.1
87 Rutgers 31.6
88 Idaho 31.5
89 Toledo 31.3
90 Miami OH 31.2
91 Arkansas St 30.6
92 Indiana 30.6
93 Central Michigan 30.0
94 UTEP 29.6
95 Marshall 28.8
96 Western Michigan 28.4
97 San José St 28.0
98 Vanderbilt 28.0
99 Wyoming 27.8
100 Kansas 27.7
101 Wake Forest 27.3
102 Kent St 27.0
103 Colorado St 26.7
104 Florida Atlantic 25.7
105 Middle Tennessee St 25.3
106 Bowling Green 25.0
107 Louisiana-Monroe 24.9
108 Rice 24.5
109 North Texas 22.7
110 Western Kentucky 22.3
111 Ball St 22.2
112 UNLV 21.8
113 Louisiana-Lafayette 21.6
114 Tulane 21.4
115 Buffalo 19.9
116 New Mexico 17.3
117 New Mexico St 15.9
118 Eastern Michigan 15.4
119 Memphis 13.3
120 Akron 11.5
FCS
1 Delaware 46.0
2 James Madison 44.0
3 Villanova 43.9
4 New Hampshire 42.6
5 William & Mary 42.6
6 Georgia Southern 38.6
7 Massachusetts 36.3
8 Appalachian St 35.8
9 Wofford 35.0
10 Rhode Island 33.2
11 Pennsylvania 32.0
12 Western Illinois 31.8
13 North Dakota St 31.3
14 Richmond 30.9
15 Maine 30.8
16 Montana St 30.7
17 Chattanooga 30.6
18 South Dakota St 30.4
19 Liberty 30.2
20 Elon 29.6
21 Eastern Washington 29.6
22 Furman 29.5
23 Northern Arizona 29.5
24 Jacksonville St 29.4
25 Sacramento St 28.4
26 Southern Utah 27.3
27 Northern Iowa 27.1
28 Montana 25.5
29 Eastern Kentucky 25.1
30 Lehigh 24.9
31 Southern Illinois 24.6
32 SE Missouri St 24.5
33 Stephen F. Austin 24.5
34 Old Dominion 24.4
35 Brown 24.4
36 Robert Morris 24.3
37 Missouri St 24.0
38 Samford 23.5
39 Harvard 23.4
40 Cal Poly SLO 23.3
41 Murray St 22.2
42 Youngstown St 22.2
43 South Dakota 22.0
44 Weber St 21.8
45 Indiana St 21.6
46 Dayton 21.6
47 North Dakota 21.2
48 McNeese St 21.1
49 Stony Brook 20.9
50 Coastal Carolina 20.6
51 Jacksonville FL 20.2
52 Illinois St 19.8
53 UC-Davis 19.8
54 Yale 19.7
55 Towson 19.6
56 Dartmouth 19.2
57 Albany NY 18.8
58 Bryant 18.4
59 Fordham 18.4
60 Duquesne 18.1
61 Monmouth NJ 17.9
62 Tennessee Tech 17.6
63 Central Conn St 17.5
64 Central Arkansas 17.3
65 Sam Houston St 16.7
66 Grambling St 16.5
67 Columbia 16.5
68 Tennessee-Martin 16.3
69 Northern Colorado 16.3
70 Texas St-San Marcos 16.3
71 Holy Cross 15.4
72 Colgate 15.4
73 Jackson St 15.4
74 Lafayette 14.8
75 SE Louisiana St 14.4
76 Bethune-Cookman 13.9
77 Portland St 13.9
78 Sacred Heart 13.3
79 Drake 13.0
80 Wagner 12.4
81 Texas Southern 12.2
82 South Carolina St 11.6
83 Eastern Illinois 11.4
84 Northwestern St 11.2
85 Lamar 10.9
86 The Citadel 10.6
87 Tennessee St 10.5
88 Georgetown DC 10.2
89 Prairie View A&M 10.0
90 Western Carolina 9.3
91 Idaho St 8.9
92 Gardner-Webb 8.6
93 San Diego 8.2
94 Alcorn St 7.5
95 Princeton 7.4
96 Nicholls St 6.6
97 Charleston Southern 6.3
98 Florida A&M 5.9
99 Alabama St 5.5
100 Cornell NY 5.4
101 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 5.3
102 St Francis PA 5.0
103 d2 4.9
104 Hampton 4.7
105 Campbell 4.4
106 VMI 4.4
107 Presbyterian 3.9
108 Marist 2.9
109 Morehead St 2.7
110 Butler 2.6
111 Bucknell 2.3
112 Austin Peay 2.3
113 Norfolk St 1.8
114 Alabama A&M 0.9
115 North Carolina Central - 0.0
116 Morgan St - 3.2
117 Delaware St - 3.3
118 Southern U. - 3.5
119 Davidson - 5.4
120 Howard - 8.8
121 North Carolina A&T - 9.3
122 Valparaiso - 14.2
123 Savannah St - 18.9
124 Mississippi Valley St - 20.6
With HFA at 3.1 Navy are 7 point favourites over army next week accoridng to this system.
Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent
1 Oregon 72.9
2 Boise St 64.8
3 TCU 62.9
4 Stanford 62.1
5 Auburn 61.2
6 Nevada 58.4
7 Alabama 57.9
8 Virginia Tech 57.5
9 Ohio State 57.0
10 Arkansas 56.9
11 Wisconsin 55.6
12 South Carolina 54.9
13 Nebraska 54.6
14 LSU 54.1
15 Arizona St 53.9
16 Oklahoma 53.7
17 Missouri 53.6
18 California 52.6
19 Southern Cal 52.5
20 Oregon St 52.1
21 Texas A&M 51.3
22 Iowa 51.1
23 Oklahoma St 50.6
24 Arizona 50.2
25 Michigan St 50.0
26 San Diego St 49.9
27 West Virginia 49.8
28 Florida St 49.2
29 Clemson 48.0
30 North Carolina St 47.8
31 Mississippi St 47.6
32 Miami FL 47.4
33 Hawai`i 47.4
34 Notre Dame 46.9
35 Air Force 46.7
36 Georgia 46.4
37 Pittsburgh 45.7
38 Utah 45.6
39 Florida 45.0
40 Kentucky 44.7
41 Illinois 43.8
42 Washington 43.8
43 Navy 43.5
44 North Carolina 43.5
45 Central Florida 42.4
46 Maryland 42.2
47 Texas 41.7
48 Georgia Tech 41.3
49 Washington St 41.2
50 Tennessee 41.1
51 Kansas St 41.1
52 Fresno St 41.0
53 Mississippi 41.0
54 Louisville 40.9
55 Connecticut 40.8
56 Northern Illinois 40.2
57 Texas Tech 40.0
58 Michigan 39.5
59 Tulsa 39.4
60 Boston College 39.4
61 South Florida 39.1
62 Brigham Young 38.9
63 Syracuse 38.8
64 Iowa St 38.7
65 Penn State 38.6
66 UCLA 38.6
67 Southern Miss 38.5
68 SMU 38.1
69 Colorado 37.7
70 Virginia 37.0
71 Cincinnati 36.6
72 Temple 36.4
73 Baylor 36.3
74 Northwestern 36.2
75 Minnesota 35.6
76 East Carolina 34.8
77 Troy 34.5
78 Utah St 34.4
79 Florida Int'l 34.3
80 Ohio U. 34.1
81 Purdue 33.7
82 Army 33.5
83 Duke 33.2
84 Louisiana Tech 32.8
85 Houston 32.7
86 Alabama-Birmingham 32.1
87 Rutgers 31.6
88 Idaho 31.5
89 Toledo 31.3
90 Miami OH 31.2
91 Arkansas St 30.6
92 Indiana 30.6
93 Central Michigan 30.0
94 UTEP 29.6
95 Marshall 28.8
96 Western Michigan 28.4
97 San José St 28.0
98 Vanderbilt 28.0
99 Wyoming 27.8
100 Kansas 27.7
101 Wake Forest 27.3
102 Kent St 27.0
103 Colorado St 26.7
104 Florida Atlantic 25.7
105 Middle Tennessee St 25.3
106 Bowling Green 25.0
107 Louisiana-Monroe 24.9
108 Rice 24.5
109 North Texas 22.7
110 Western Kentucky 22.3
111 Ball St 22.2
112 UNLV 21.8
113 Louisiana-Lafayette 21.6
114 Tulane 21.4
115 Buffalo 19.9
116 New Mexico 17.3
117 New Mexico St 15.9
118 Eastern Michigan 15.4
119 Memphis 13.3
120 Akron 11.5
FCS
1 Delaware 46.0
2 James Madison 44.0
3 Villanova 43.9
4 New Hampshire 42.6
5 William & Mary 42.6
6 Georgia Southern 38.6
7 Massachusetts 36.3
8 Appalachian St 35.8
9 Wofford 35.0
10 Rhode Island 33.2
11 Pennsylvania 32.0
12 Western Illinois 31.8
13 North Dakota St 31.3
14 Richmond 30.9
15 Maine 30.8
16 Montana St 30.7
17 Chattanooga 30.6
18 South Dakota St 30.4
19 Liberty 30.2
20 Elon 29.6
21 Eastern Washington 29.6
22 Furman 29.5
23 Northern Arizona 29.5
24 Jacksonville St 29.4
25 Sacramento St 28.4
26 Southern Utah 27.3
27 Northern Iowa 27.1
28 Montana 25.5
29 Eastern Kentucky 25.1
30 Lehigh 24.9
31 Southern Illinois 24.6
32 SE Missouri St 24.5
33 Stephen F. Austin 24.5
34 Old Dominion 24.4
35 Brown 24.4
36 Robert Morris 24.3
37 Missouri St 24.0
38 Samford 23.5
39 Harvard 23.4
40 Cal Poly SLO 23.3
41 Murray St 22.2
42 Youngstown St 22.2
43 South Dakota 22.0
44 Weber St 21.8
45 Indiana St 21.6
46 Dayton 21.6
47 North Dakota 21.2
48 McNeese St 21.1
49 Stony Brook 20.9
50 Coastal Carolina 20.6
51 Jacksonville FL 20.2
52 Illinois St 19.8
53 UC-Davis 19.8
54 Yale 19.7
55 Towson 19.6
56 Dartmouth 19.2
57 Albany NY 18.8
58 Bryant 18.4
59 Fordham 18.4
60 Duquesne 18.1
61 Monmouth NJ 17.9
62 Tennessee Tech 17.6
63 Central Conn St 17.5
64 Central Arkansas 17.3
65 Sam Houston St 16.7
66 Grambling St 16.5
67 Columbia 16.5
68 Tennessee-Martin 16.3
69 Northern Colorado 16.3
70 Texas St-San Marcos 16.3
71 Holy Cross 15.4
72 Colgate 15.4
73 Jackson St 15.4
74 Lafayette 14.8
75 SE Louisiana St 14.4
76 Bethune-Cookman 13.9
77 Portland St 13.9
78 Sacred Heart 13.3
79 Drake 13.0
80 Wagner 12.4
81 Texas Southern 12.2
82 South Carolina St 11.6
83 Eastern Illinois 11.4
84 Northwestern St 11.2
85 Lamar 10.9
86 The Citadel 10.6
87 Tennessee St 10.5
88 Georgetown DC 10.2
89 Prairie View A&M 10.0
90 Western Carolina 9.3
91 Idaho St 8.9
92 Gardner-Webb 8.6
93 San Diego 8.2
94 Alcorn St 7.5
95 Princeton 7.4
96 Nicholls St 6.6
97 Charleston Southern 6.3
98 Florida A&M 5.9
99 Alabama St 5.5
100 Cornell NY 5.4
101 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 5.3
102 St Francis PA 5.0
103 d2 4.9
104 Hampton 4.7
105 Campbell 4.4
106 VMI 4.4
107 Presbyterian 3.9
108 Marist 2.9
109 Morehead St 2.7
110 Butler 2.6
111 Bucknell 2.3
112 Austin Peay 2.3
113 Norfolk St 1.8
114 Alabama A&M 0.9
115 North Carolina Central - 0.0
116 Morgan St - 3.2
117 Delaware St - 3.3
118 Southern U. - 3.5
119 Davidson - 5.4
120 Howard - 8.8
121 North Carolina A&T - 9.3
122 Valparaiso - 14.2
123 Savannah St - 18.9
124 Mississippi Valley St - 20.6
Week 14 NoahChain rankings
Here they are the final rankings of the regular season with Oregon and Auburn one and two
1 Oregon 0.9317
2 Auburn 0.9241
3 Stanford 0.9204
4 Oklahoma 0.9108
5 Arkansas 0.9094
6 TCU 0.8960
7 Texas A&M 0.8919
8 Oklahoma st 0.8833
9 Wisconsin 0.8703
10 Ohio state 0.8671
11 Missouri 0.8658
12 LSU 0.8634
13 Alabama 0.8629
14 Boise st 0.8613
15 Nebraska 0.8513
16 Michigan st 0.8243
17 Nevada 0.7919
18 Virginia Tech 0.7919
19 South Carolina 0.7864
20 Mississippi st 0.7823
21 Baylor 0.7574
22 Utah 0.7505
23 Texas Tech 0.7416
24 Southern Cal 0.7313
25 Washington 0.7233
26 Arizona 0.7163
27 Kansas st 0.7057
28 Florida st 0.6947
29 Air Force 0.6894
30 Michigan 0.6839
31 Florida 0.6839
32 Texas 0.6723
33 Arizona St 0.6686
34 Iowa 0.6658
35 Notre Dame 0.6595
36 Oregon st 0.6581
37 Penn state 0.6293
38 Iowa st 0.6236
39 Hawai`i 0.6199
40 California 0.6118
41 Tennessee 0.6049
42 Colorado 0.6013
43 North Carolina St 0.5963
44 Kentucky 0.5845
45 UCLA 0.5842
46 North Carolina 0.5835
47 Georgia 0.5827
48 Northwestern 0.5735
49 Maryland 0.5723
50 Navy 0.5693
51 West Virginia 0.5670
52 Central Florida 0.5629
53 Fresno st 0.5599
54 Miami FL 0.5552
55 Tulsa 0.5544
56 San Diego st 0.5489
57 Illinois 0.5478
58 Brigham Young 0.5387
59 Clemson 0.5295
60 Boston College 0.5019
61 Northern Illinois 0.4713
62 Mississippi 0.4711
63 Pittsburgh 0.4522
64 East Carolina 0.4381
65 SMU 0.4370
66 Minnesota 0.4369
67 Connecticut 0.4324
68 Georgia Tech 0.4285
69 South Florida 0.4226
70 Toledo 0.4158
71 Kansas 0.4088
72 Temple 0.4077
73 Syracuse 0.4060
74 Purdue 0.4033
75 Southern Miss 0.3933
76 Indiana 0.3853
77 Miami OH 0.3780
78 Louisville 0.3625
79 Washington st 0.3420
80 Houston 0.3349
81 Utah st 0.3229
82 Army 0.3084
83 Duke 0.3052
84 Ohio U. 0.3048
85 Virginia 0.3033
86 Cincinnati 0.2970
87 Idaho 0.2969
88 Rice 0.2837
89 Louisiana Tech 0.2658
90 Vanderbilt 0.2583
91 Wake Forest 0.2508
92 Wyoming 0.2484
93 Rutgers 0.2433
94 Marshall 0.2409
95 UTEP 0.2357
96 Colorado st 0.2276
97 Tulane 0.2246
98 UNLV 0.2191
99 Kent st 0.2170
100 Western Michigan 0.2037
101 Alabama-Birmingham 0.1918
102 Troy 0.1819
103 Florida Int'l 0.1598
104 Middle Tennessee St 0.1295
105 San José St 0.1235
106 New Mexico 0.1211
107 New Mexico st 0.1182
108 aa 0.1164
109 Louisiana-Monroe 0.1127
110 Ball St 0.1060
111 Arkansas St 0.1036
112 Bowling Green 0.1019
113 Florida Atlantic 0.1007
114 Central Michigan 0.0997
115 Memphis 0.0910
116 Eastern Michigan 0.0832
117 Buffalo 0.0768
118 North Texas 0.0728
119 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0705
120 Akron 0.0702
121 Western Kentucky 0.0526
1 Oregon 0.9317
2 Auburn 0.9241
3 Stanford 0.9204
4 Oklahoma 0.9108
5 Arkansas 0.9094
6 TCU 0.8960
7 Texas A&M 0.8919
8 Oklahoma st 0.8833
9 Wisconsin 0.8703
10 Ohio state 0.8671
11 Missouri 0.8658
12 LSU 0.8634
13 Alabama 0.8629
14 Boise st 0.8613
15 Nebraska 0.8513
16 Michigan st 0.8243
17 Nevada 0.7919
18 Virginia Tech 0.7919
19 South Carolina 0.7864
20 Mississippi st 0.7823
21 Baylor 0.7574
22 Utah 0.7505
23 Texas Tech 0.7416
24 Southern Cal 0.7313
25 Washington 0.7233
26 Arizona 0.7163
27 Kansas st 0.7057
28 Florida st 0.6947
29 Air Force 0.6894
30 Michigan 0.6839
31 Florida 0.6839
32 Texas 0.6723
33 Arizona St 0.6686
34 Iowa 0.6658
35 Notre Dame 0.6595
36 Oregon st 0.6581
37 Penn state 0.6293
38 Iowa st 0.6236
39 Hawai`i 0.6199
40 California 0.6118
41 Tennessee 0.6049
42 Colorado 0.6013
43 North Carolina St 0.5963
44 Kentucky 0.5845
45 UCLA 0.5842
46 North Carolina 0.5835
47 Georgia 0.5827
48 Northwestern 0.5735
49 Maryland 0.5723
50 Navy 0.5693
51 West Virginia 0.5670
52 Central Florida 0.5629
53 Fresno st 0.5599
54 Miami FL 0.5552
55 Tulsa 0.5544
56 San Diego st 0.5489
57 Illinois 0.5478
58 Brigham Young 0.5387
59 Clemson 0.5295
60 Boston College 0.5019
61 Northern Illinois 0.4713
62 Mississippi 0.4711
63 Pittsburgh 0.4522
64 East Carolina 0.4381
65 SMU 0.4370
66 Minnesota 0.4369
67 Connecticut 0.4324
68 Georgia Tech 0.4285
69 South Florida 0.4226
70 Toledo 0.4158
71 Kansas 0.4088
72 Temple 0.4077
73 Syracuse 0.4060
74 Purdue 0.4033
75 Southern Miss 0.3933
76 Indiana 0.3853
77 Miami OH 0.3780
78 Louisville 0.3625
79 Washington st 0.3420
80 Houston 0.3349
81 Utah st 0.3229
82 Army 0.3084
83 Duke 0.3052
84 Ohio U. 0.3048
85 Virginia 0.3033
86 Cincinnati 0.2970
87 Idaho 0.2969
88 Rice 0.2837
89 Louisiana Tech 0.2658
90 Vanderbilt 0.2583
91 Wake Forest 0.2508
92 Wyoming 0.2484
93 Rutgers 0.2433
94 Marshall 0.2409
95 UTEP 0.2357
96 Colorado st 0.2276
97 Tulane 0.2246
98 UNLV 0.2191
99 Kent st 0.2170
100 Western Michigan 0.2037
101 Alabama-Birmingham 0.1918
102 Troy 0.1819
103 Florida Int'l 0.1598
104 Middle Tennessee St 0.1295
105 San José St 0.1235
106 New Mexico 0.1211
107 New Mexico st 0.1182
108 aa 0.1164
109 Louisiana-Monroe 0.1127
110 Ball St 0.1060
111 Arkansas St 0.1036
112 Bowling Green 0.1019
113 Florida Atlantic 0.1007
114 Central Michigan 0.0997
115 Memphis 0.0910
116 Eastern Michigan 0.0832
117 Buffalo 0.0768
118 North Texas 0.0728
119 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0705
120 Akron 0.0702
121 Western Kentucky 0.0526
Sunday, 28 November 2010
Week 13 Pointshare rankings for FBS and FCS
Here they are
HFA is 3.1 points
Oregon and Boise are still number 1 and 2 despite Boise's close loss.
Auburn were predicted to lose by 1 to Alabama so there close win wasn't much better than expected so it hasn't improved their position by much.
FBS
Rank Team Pointspread equivalent
1 Oregon 72.8
2 Boise St 64.3
3 TCU 63.0
4 Stanford 62.1
5 Auburn 60.3
6 Nevada 58.3
7 Alabama 57.8
8 Arkansas 57.1
9 Ohio State 56.9
10 Virginia Tech 56.6
11 South Carolina 56.1
12 Wisconsin 55.6
13 Nebraska 55.5
14 Arizona St 53.9
15 LSU 53.8
16 Missouri 53.8
17 Oklahoma 53.4
18 California 52.5
19 Southern Cal 52.3
20 Oregon St 52.2
21 Texas A&M 51.5
22 Iowa 51.2
23 Oklahoma St 50.9
24 Arizona 50.2
25 Michigan St 50.0
26 San Diego St 50.0
27 Florida St 49.9
28 West Virginia 49.6
29 North Carolina St 47.7
30 Clemson 47.7
31 Mississippi St 47.3
32 Miami FL 47.2
33 Hawai`i 47.2
34 Notre Dame 46.8
35 Air Force 46.6
36 Georgia 46.5
37 Utah 45.7
38 Pittsburgh 45.2
39 Florida 44.8
40 Kentucky 44.7
41 Illinois 44.1
42 North Carolina 43.7
43 Washington 43.3
44 Navy 43.1
45 Texas 42.3
46 Maryland 42.1
47 Northern Illinois 41.8
48 Central Florida 41.7
49 Washington St 41.7
50 Kansas St 41.3
51 Tennessee 41.2
52 Louisville 40.9
53 Fresno St 40.9
54 Mississippi 40.9
55 Georgia Tech 40.8
56 Connecticut 40.3
57 Texas Tech 40.2
58 South Florida 39.6
59 Michigan 39.5
60 Iowa St 39.4
61 Tulsa 39.4
62 Boston College 39.4
63 UCLA 39.2
64 Syracuse 38.9
65 Brigham Young 38.9
66 SMU 38.6
67 Penn State 38.5
68 Southern Miss 38.3
69 Colorado 37.9
70 Cincinnati 37.4
71 Virginia 36.8
72 Baylor 36.6
73 Temple 36.3
74 Northwestern 36.2
75 Minnesota 35.7
76 Utah St 35.2
77 Florida Int'l 35.2
78 East Carolina 34.6
79 Troy 33.9
80 Purdue 33.7
81 Army 33.3
82 Houston 32.8
83 Duke 32.8
84 Ohio U. 32.8
85 Louisiana Tech 32.5
86 Idaho 32.1
87 Rutgers 32.0
88 Alabama-Birmingham 32.0
89 Toledo 30.8
90 Indiana 30.6
91 Arkansas St 30.4
92 UTEP 29.8
93 Central Michigan 29.6
94 Marshall 28.6
95 Miami OH 28.5
96 Western Michigan 28.4
97 Vanderbilt 28.2
98 San José St 27.9
99 Wyoming 27.8
100 Kansas 27.8
101 Florida Atlantic 27.1
102 Wake Forest 27.0
103 Colorado St 26.8
104 Kent St 26.2
105 Louisiana-Monroe 25.0
106 Rice 24.6
107 Bowling Green 24.5
108 Middle Tennessee St 23.3
109 North Texas 22.6
110 Western Kentucky 22.5
111 UNLV 22.4
112 Ball St 22.2
113 Tulane 21.5
114 Louisiana-Lafayette 21.4
115 Buffalo 19.7
116 New Mexico 17.4
117 New Mexico St 16.2
118 Eastern Michigan 14.6
119 Memphis 12.8
120 Akron 10.7
FCS rankings
1 Delaware 46.4
2 William & Mary 44.8
3 Villanova 44.0
4 James Madison 43.8
5 New Hampshire 42.8
6 Massachusetts 36.9
7 Rhode Island 33.6
8 Montana St 33.6
9 Georgia Southern 32.7
10 Appalachian St 32.6
11 Pennsylvania 32.3
12 Wofford 31.5
13 Maine 31.3
14 Western Illinois 31.0
15 Richmond 30.8
16 Northern Arizona 30.6
17 South Dakota St 30.5
18 Liberty 30.1
19 Eastern Washington 29.4
20 Sacramento St 29.4
21 Jacksonville St 29.2
22 North Dakota St 28.9
23 Furman 28.0
24 Chattanooga 27.8
25 Southern Utah 27.7
26 Elon 27.1
27 Stephen F. Austin 26.9
28 Montana 26.6
29 Northern Iowa 26.6
30 SE Missouri St 26.0
31 Old Dominion 25.9
32 Lehigh 25.4
33 Eastern Kentucky 25.0
34 Brown 24.7
35 Robert Morris 24.3
36 Cal Poly SLO 23.8
37 Southern Illinois 23.8
38 Harvard 23.8
39 Missouri St 23.2
40 Weber St 22.8
41 North Dakota 22.2
42 Murray St 22.1
43 South Dakota 22.1
44 Dayton 21.4
45 Youngstown St 21.4
46 McNeese St 21.3
47 Indiana St 20.9
48 Stony Brook 20.9
49 Jacksonville FL 20.7
50 UC-Davis 20.3
51 Yale 20.0
52 Coastal Carolina 19.9
53 Towson 19.6
54 Dartmouth 19.5
55 Albany NY 19.2
56 Samford 19.1
57 Illinois St 18.9
58 Fordham 18.8
59 Bryant 18.4
60 Duquesne 18.3
61 Monmouth NJ 18.1
62 Tennessee Tech 17.8
63 Northern Colorado 17.8
64 Central Conn St 17.6
65 Central Arkansas 17.4
66 Texas St-San Marcos 17.1
67 Sam Houston St 17.0
68 Columbia 16.7
69 Tennessee-Martin 16.5
70 Grambling St 15.8
71 Holy Cross 15.8
72 Colgate 15.7
73 Portland St 15.2
74 Lafayette 15.1
75 Bethune-Cookman 14.9
76 Jackson St 14.8
77 SE Louisiana St 14.6
78 Sacred Heart 13.4
79 Drake 13.0
80 Wagner 12.6
81 Texas Southern 11.4
82 Eastern Illinois 11.3
83 Northwestern St 11.3
84 Tennessee St 11.0
85 Idaho St 10.6
86 Georgetown DC 10.5
87 South Carolina St 10.0
88 Prairie View A&M 9.2
89 Gardner-Webb 8.5
90 San Diego 8.3
91 Lamar 8.2
92 Princeton 7.8
93 The Citadel 7.5
94 Western Carolina 6.7
95 Alcorn St 6.7
96 Florida A&M 6.2
97 Nicholls St 6.2
98 Cornell NY 5.8
99 St Francis PA 5.3
100 Alabama St 4.7
101 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 4.7
102 Hampton 4.6
103 Charleston Southern 4.3
104 VMI 4.0
105 Campbell 3.7
106 Presbyterian 3.4
107 d2 3.1
108 Marist 2.8
109 Bucknell 2.6
110 Morehead St 2.5
111 Austin Peay 2.1
112 Butler 2.0
113 Norfolk St 1.2
114 Alabama A&M 0.1
115 North Carolina Central - 1.9
116 Delaware St - 4.0
117 Southern U. - 4.2
118 Morgan St - 4.4
119 Davidson - 5.6
120 Howard - 9.4
121 North Carolina A&T - 9.9
122 Valparaiso - 15.1
123 Mississippi Valley St - 21.4
124 Savannah St - 22.1
HFA is 3.1 points
Oregon and Boise are still number 1 and 2 despite Boise's close loss.
Auburn were predicted to lose by 1 to Alabama so there close win wasn't much better than expected so it hasn't improved their position by much.
FBS
Rank Team Pointspread equivalent
1 Oregon 72.8
2 Boise St 64.3
3 TCU 63.0
4 Stanford 62.1
5 Auburn 60.3
6 Nevada 58.3
7 Alabama 57.8
8 Arkansas 57.1
9 Ohio State 56.9
10 Virginia Tech 56.6
11 South Carolina 56.1
12 Wisconsin 55.6
13 Nebraska 55.5
14 Arizona St 53.9
15 LSU 53.8
16 Missouri 53.8
17 Oklahoma 53.4
18 California 52.5
19 Southern Cal 52.3
20 Oregon St 52.2
21 Texas A&M 51.5
22 Iowa 51.2
23 Oklahoma St 50.9
24 Arizona 50.2
25 Michigan St 50.0
26 San Diego St 50.0
27 Florida St 49.9
28 West Virginia 49.6
29 North Carolina St 47.7
30 Clemson 47.7
31 Mississippi St 47.3
32 Miami FL 47.2
33 Hawai`i 47.2
34 Notre Dame 46.8
35 Air Force 46.6
36 Georgia 46.5
37 Utah 45.7
38 Pittsburgh 45.2
39 Florida 44.8
40 Kentucky 44.7
41 Illinois 44.1
42 North Carolina 43.7
43 Washington 43.3
44 Navy 43.1
45 Texas 42.3
46 Maryland 42.1
47 Northern Illinois 41.8
48 Central Florida 41.7
49 Washington St 41.7
50 Kansas St 41.3
51 Tennessee 41.2
52 Louisville 40.9
53 Fresno St 40.9
54 Mississippi 40.9
55 Georgia Tech 40.8
56 Connecticut 40.3
57 Texas Tech 40.2
58 South Florida 39.6
59 Michigan 39.5
60 Iowa St 39.4
61 Tulsa 39.4
62 Boston College 39.4
63 UCLA 39.2
64 Syracuse 38.9
65 Brigham Young 38.9
66 SMU 38.6
67 Penn State 38.5
68 Southern Miss 38.3
69 Colorado 37.9
70 Cincinnati 37.4
71 Virginia 36.8
72 Baylor 36.6
73 Temple 36.3
74 Northwestern 36.2
75 Minnesota 35.7
76 Utah St 35.2
77 Florida Int'l 35.2
78 East Carolina 34.6
79 Troy 33.9
80 Purdue 33.7
81 Army 33.3
82 Houston 32.8
83 Duke 32.8
84 Ohio U. 32.8
85 Louisiana Tech 32.5
86 Idaho 32.1
87 Rutgers 32.0
88 Alabama-Birmingham 32.0
89 Toledo 30.8
90 Indiana 30.6
91 Arkansas St 30.4
92 UTEP 29.8
93 Central Michigan 29.6
94 Marshall 28.6
95 Miami OH 28.5
96 Western Michigan 28.4
97 Vanderbilt 28.2
98 San José St 27.9
99 Wyoming 27.8
100 Kansas 27.8
101 Florida Atlantic 27.1
102 Wake Forest 27.0
103 Colorado St 26.8
104 Kent St 26.2
105 Louisiana-Monroe 25.0
106 Rice 24.6
107 Bowling Green 24.5
108 Middle Tennessee St 23.3
109 North Texas 22.6
110 Western Kentucky 22.5
111 UNLV 22.4
112 Ball St 22.2
113 Tulane 21.5
114 Louisiana-Lafayette 21.4
115 Buffalo 19.7
116 New Mexico 17.4
117 New Mexico St 16.2
118 Eastern Michigan 14.6
119 Memphis 12.8
120 Akron 10.7
FCS rankings
1 Delaware 46.4
2 William & Mary 44.8
3 Villanova 44.0
4 James Madison 43.8
5 New Hampshire 42.8
6 Massachusetts 36.9
7 Rhode Island 33.6
8 Montana St 33.6
9 Georgia Southern 32.7
10 Appalachian St 32.6
11 Pennsylvania 32.3
12 Wofford 31.5
13 Maine 31.3
14 Western Illinois 31.0
15 Richmond 30.8
16 Northern Arizona 30.6
17 South Dakota St 30.5
18 Liberty 30.1
19 Eastern Washington 29.4
20 Sacramento St 29.4
21 Jacksonville St 29.2
22 North Dakota St 28.9
23 Furman 28.0
24 Chattanooga 27.8
25 Southern Utah 27.7
26 Elon 27.1
27 Stephen F. Austin 26.9
28 Montana 26.6
29 Northern Iowa 26.6
30 SE Missouri St 26.0
31 Old Dominion 25.9
32 Lehigh 25.4
33 Eastern Kentucky 25.0
34 Brown 24.7
35 Robert Morris 24.3
36 Cal Poly SLO 23.8
37 Southern Illinois 23.8
38 Harvard 23.8
39 Missouri St 23.2
40 Weber St 22.8
41 North Dakota 22.2
42 Murray St 22.1
43 South Dakota 22.1
44 Dayton 21.4
45 Youngstown St 21.4
46 McNeese St 21.3
47 Indiana St 20.9
48 Stony Brook 20.9
49 Jacksonville FL 20.7
50 UC-Davis 20.3
51 Yale 20.0
52 Coastal Carolina 19.9
53 Towson 19.6
54 Dartmouth 19.5
55 Albany NY 19.2
56 Samford 19.1
57 Illinois St 18.9
58 Fordham 18.8
59 Bryant 18.4
60 Duquesne 18.3
61 Monmouth NJ 18.1
62 Tennessee Tech 17.8
63 Northern Colorado 17.8
64 Central Conn St 17.6
65 Central Arkansas 17.4
66 Texas St-San Marcos 17.1
67 Sam Houston St 17.0
68 Columbia 16.7
69 Tennessee-Martin 16.5
70 Grambling St 15.8
71 Holy Cross 15.8
72 Colgate 15.7
73 Portland St 15.2
74 Lafayette 15.1
75 Bethune-Cookman 14.9
76 Jackson St 14.8
77 SE Louisiana St 14.6
78 Sacred Heart 13.4
79 Drake 13.0
80 Wagner 12.6
81 Texas Southern 11.4
82 Eastern Illinois 11.3
83 Northwestern St 11.3
84 Tennessee St 11.0
85 Idaho St 10.6
86 Georgetown DC 10.5
87 South Carolina St 10.0
88 Prairie View A&M 9.2
89 Gardner-Webb 8.5
90 San Diego 8.3
91 Lamar 8.2
92 Princeton 7.8
93 The Citadel 7.5
94 Western Carolina 6.7
95 Alcorn St 6.7
96 Florida A&M 6.2
97 Nicholls St 6.2
98 Cornell NY 5.8
99 St Francis PA 5.3
100 Alabama St 4.7
101 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 4.7
102 Hampton 4.6
103 Charleston Southern 4.3
104 VMI 4.0
105 Campbell 3.7
106 Presbyterian 3.4
107 d2 3.1
108 Marist 2.8
109 Bucknell 2.6
110 Morehead St 2.5
111 Austin Peay 2.1
112 Butler 2.0
113 Norfolk St 1.2
114 Alabama A&M 0.1
115 North Carolina Central - 1.9
116 Delaware St - 4.0
117 Southern U. - 4.2
118 Morgan St - 4.4
119 Davidson - 5.6
120 Howard - 9.4
121 North Carolina A&T - 9.9
122 Valparaiso - 15.1
123 Mississippi Valley St - 21.4
124 Savannah St - 22.1
Week 13 Noah Chain ratings
Here they are Oregon are number 1 with Stanford number 2
Scores courtesy of Peter Wolfe
1 Oregon 0.9189
2 Stanford 0.9123
3 Auburn 0.9082
4 Arkansas 0.8976
5 Oklahoma 0.8956
6 TCU 0.8889
7 Texas A&M 0.8858
8 Oklahoma st 0.8823
9 Wisconsin 0.8628
10 Ohio state 0.8627
11 Missouri 0.8610
12 Nebraska 0.8548
13 Alabama 0.8535
14 LSU 0.8493
15 Boise st 0.8348
16 Michigan st 0.8286
17 South Carolina 0.7754
18 Virginia Tech 0.7711
19 Mississippi st 0.7671
20 Nevada 0.7597
21 Baylor 0.7547
22 Arizona 0.7518
23 Utah 0.7447
24 Texas Tech 0.7417
25 Washington 0.7059
26 Kansas st 0.7025
27 Florida st 0.6986
28 Southern Cal 0.6983
29 Michigan 0.6940
30 Iowa 0.6932
31 Air Force 0.6828
32 Texas 0.6816
33 Florida 0.6717
34 Oregon st 0.6561
35 Penn state 0.6508
36 Notre Dame 0.6505
37 Iowa st 0.6298
38 UCLA 0.6115
39 Northwestern 0.6040
40 California 0.6020
41 Colorado 0.5982
42 Arizona St 0.5963
43 Illinois 0.5945
44 Tennessee 0.5940
45 North Carolina St 0.5909
46 Hawai`i 0.5889
47 North Carolina 0.5885
48 Georgia 0.5792
49 Maryland 0.5790
50 Kentucky 0.5781
51 Miami FL 0.5727
52 Navy 0.5689
53 Northern Illinois 0.5672
54 Tulsa 0.5607
55 West Virginia 0.5547
56 San Diego st 0.5482
57 Clemson 0.5366
58 Central Florida 0.5299
59 Brigham Young 0.5258
60 Boston College 0.5056
61 Fresno st 0.4824
62 South Florida 0.4740
63 Minnesota 0.4736
64 SMU 0.4569
65 Mississippi 0.4543
66 East Carolina 0.4429
67 Toledo 0.4390
68 Georgia Tech 0.4369
69 Pittsburgh 0.4337
70 Purdue 0.4331
71 Temple 0.4233
72 Indiana 0.4227
73 Kansas 0.4138
74 Connecticut 0.4092
75 Syracuse 0.4013
76 Southern Miss 0.3924
77 Louisville 0.3659
78 Miami OH 0.3538
79 Washington st 0.3522
80 Houston 0.3426
81 Utah st 0.3228
82 Army 0.3206
83 Duke 0.3130
84 Cincinnati 0.3098
85 Virginia 0.3090
86 Ohio U. 0.3022
87 Idaho 0.3001
88 Rice 0.2895
89 Louisiana Tech 0.2765
90 Vanderbilt 0.2611
91 Wake Forest 0.2590
92 Wyoming 0.2511
93 Rutgers 0.2470
94 Marshall 0.2423
95 UTEP 0.2404
96 Colorado st 0.2347
97 UNLV 0.2294
98 Tulane 0.2272
99 Kent st 0.2242
100 Western Michigan 0.2214
101 Florida Int'l 0.1995
102 Alabama-Birmingham 0.1964
103 Troy 0.1852
104 San José St 0.1431
105 New Mexico 0.1271
106 New Mexico st 0.1252
107 Louisiana-Monroe 0.1237
108 Florida Atlantic 0.1217
109 aa 0.1192
110 Ball St 0.1166
111 Middle Tennessee St 0.1156
112 Arkansas St 0.1134
113 Central Michigan 0.1097
114 Bowling Green 0.1075
115 Eastern Michigan 0.0895
116 Memphis 0.0858
117 Buffalo 0.0806
118 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0797
119 North Texas 0.0785
120 Akron 0.0764
121 Western Kentucky 0.0601
Scores courtesy of Peter Wolfe
1 Oregon 0.9189
2 Stanford 0.9123
3 Auburn 0.9082
4 Arkansas 0.8976
5 Oklahoma 0.8956
6 TCU 0.8889
7 Texas A&M 0.8858
8 Oklahoma st 0.8823
9 Wisconsin 0.8628
10 Ohio state 0.8627
11 Missouri 0.8610
12 Nebraska 0.8548
13 Alabama 0.8535
14 LSU 0.8493
15 Boise st 0.8348
16 Michigan st 0.8286
17 South Carolina 0.7754
18 Virginia Tech 0.7711
19 Mississippi st 0.7671
20 Nevada 0.7597
21 Baylor 0.7547
22 Arizona 0.7518
23 Utah 0.7447
24 Texas Tech 0.7417
25 Washington 0.7059
26 Kansas st 0.7025
27 Florida st 0.6986
28 Southern Cal 0.6983
29 Michigan 0.6940
30 Iowa 0.6932
31 Air Force 0.6828
32 Texas 0.6816
33 Florida 0.6717
34 Oregon st 0.6561
35 Penn state 0.6508
36 Notre Dame 0.6505
37 Iowa st 0.6298
38 UCLA 0.6115
39 Northwestern 0.6040
40 California 0.6020
41 Colorado 0.5982
42 Arizona St 0.5963
43 Illinois 0.5945
44 Tennessee 0.5940
45 North Carolina St 0.5909
46 Hawai`i 0.5889
47 North Carolina 0.5885
48 Georgia 0.5792
49 Maryland 0.5790
50 Kentucky 0.5781
51 Miami FL 0.5727
52 Navy 0.5689
53 Northern Illinois 0.5672
54 Tulsa 0.5607
55 West Virginia 0.5547
56 San Diego st 0.5482
57 Clemson 0.5366
58 Central Florida 0.5299
59 Brigham Young 0.5258
60 Boston College 0.5056
61 Fresno st 0.4824
62 South Florida 0.4740
63 Minnesota 0.4736
64 SMU 0.4569
65 Mississippi 0.4543
66 East Carolina 0.4429
67 Toledo 0.4390
68 Georgia Tech 0.4369
69 Pittsburgh 0.4337
70 Purdue 0.4331
71 Temple 0.4233
72 Indiana 0.4227
73 Kansas 0.4138
74 Connecticut 0.4092
75 Syracuse 0.4013
76 Southern Miss 0.3924
77 Louisville 0.3659
78 Miami OH 0.3538
79 Washington st 0.3522
80 Houston 0.3426
81 Utah st 0.3228
82 Army 0.3206
83 Duke 0.3130
84 Cincinnati 0.3098
85 Virginia 0.3090
86 Ohio U. 0.3022
87 Idaho 0.3001
88 Rice 0.2895
89 Louisiana Tech 0.2765
90 Vanderbilt 0.2611
91 Wake Forest 0.2590
92 Wyoming 0.2511
93 Rutgers 0.2470
94 Marshall 0.2423
95 UTEP 0.2404
96 Colorado st 0.2347
97 UNLV 0.2294
98 Tulane 0.2272
99 Kent st 0.2242
100 Western Michigan 0.2214
101 Florida Int'l 0.1995
102 Alabama-Birmingham 0.1964
103 Troy 0.1852
104 San José St 0.1431
105 New Mexico 0.1271
106 New Mexico st 0.1252
107 Louisiana-Monroe 0.1237
108 Florida Atlantic 0.1217
109 aa 0.1192
110 Ball St 0.1166
111 Middle Tennessee St 0.1156
112 Arkansas St 0.1134
113 Central Michigan 0.1097
114 Bowling Green 0.1075
115 Eastern Michigan 0.0895
116 Memphis 0.0858
117 Buffalo 0.0806
118 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0797
119 North Texas 0.0785
120 Akron 0.0764
121 Western Kentucky 0.0601
Sunday, 21 November 2010
Week 12 Pointshare standings
Here they are home field advantage is 3.2 points.
The FBS has Oregon 4 points better than Boise and they in turn are 5 points better than TCU.
In the FCS the CAA dominates probably due to James Madison's defeat of Virginia Tech.
home field advantage is 3.2 points
FBS
Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent
1 Oregon 72.4
2 Boise St 68.4
3 TCU 63.5
4 Stanford 60.7
5 Auburn 59.7
6 Virginia Tech 58.8
7 Alabama 58.0
8 Ohio State 57.0
9 Arkansas 56.4
10 Wisconsin 55.4
11 Oregon St 55.1
12 South Carolina 55.1
13 Nebraska 55.1
14 Nevada 54.3
15 LSU 54.0
16 Arizona St 53.7
17 California 53.3
18 Missouri 53.1
19 Southern Cal 52.9
20 Oklahoma St 52.6
21 Iowa 52.5
22 Oklahoma 51.9
23 Texas A&M 51.1
24 Arizona 51.0
25 Michigan St 50.0
26 North Carolina St 49.9
27 San Diego St 49.8
28 Miami FL 49.8
29 Clemson 49.8
30 Florida St 49.7
31 Pittsburgh 47.8
32 West Virginia 47.2
33 Mississippi St 46.9
34 Utah 46.7
35 Georgia 46.2
36 Florida 46.1
37 Air Force 45.8
38 Notre Dame 45.1
39 North Carolina 45.1
40 Kentucky 45.1
41 Hawai`i 44.6
42 Illinois 44.3
43 Georgia Tech 42.7
44 Central Florida 42.7
45 Washington St 42.5
46 Navy 42.4
47 Texas 42.0
48 Washington 42.0
49 Northern Illinois 41.8
50 Kansas St 41.8
51 Mississippi 41.1
52 UCLA 41.1
53 Maryland 41.0
54 Louisville 40.8
55 Michigan 40.7
56 Tennessee 40.0
57 Texas Tech 39.7
58 Southern Miss 39.3
59 Iowa St 39.2
60 Connecticut 39.2
61 Fresno St 39.2
62 Syracuse 39.2
63 Virginia 39.2
64 Boston College 39.1
65 Tulsa 38.7
66 Penn State 38.6
67 Temple 38.3
68 Cincinnati 38.3
69 SMU 38.2
70 Northwestern 38.2
71 Colorado 38.1
72 South Florida 37.3
73 Baylor 36.8
74 Brigham Young 36.7
75 East Carolina 36.5
76 Ohio U. 35.4
77 Florida Int'l 35.3
78 Troy 34.9
79 Purdue 34.0
80 Houston 33.5
81 Rutgers 33.3
82 Utah St 33.0
83 Duke 32.9
84 Minnesota 32.9
85 Army 32.5
86 Alabama-Birmingham 32.5
87 Louisiana Tech 31.6
88 Central Michigan 30.9
89 Toledo 30.7
90 Indiana 30.7
91 Arkansas St 30.3
92 Idaho 29.7
93 UTEP 29.4
94 Vanderbilt 29.2
95 Kansas 29.0
96 Florida Atlantic 28.4
97 Marshall 27.8
98 Wyoming 27.2
99 San José St 27.1
100 Western Michigan 26.9
101 Colorado St 26.5
102 Bowling Green 26.3
103 Wake Forest 26.3
104 Louisiana-Monroe 25.7
105 Miami OH 25.0
106 Rice 24.5
107 Kent St 23.2
108 Ball St 23.0
109 North Texas 22.3
110 Tulane 22.3
111 Western Kentucky 22.2
112 UNLV 21.8
113 Louisiana-Lafayette 21.8
114 Buffalo 21.6
115 Middle Tennessee St 20.5
116 New Mexico 17.6
117 New Mexico St 15.6
118 Eastern Michigan 15.6
119 Memphis 11.9
120 Akron 8.5
FCS
1 Delaware 48.2
2 William & Mary 46.6
3 James Madison 45.9
4 Villanova 45.8
5 New Hampshire 44.7
6 Massachusetts 38.7
7 Rhode Island 35.4
8 Pennsylvania 33.9
9 Montana St 33.8
10 Maine 33.2
11 Appalachian St 32.7
12 Richmond 32.6
13 Georgia Southern 32.6
14 Liberty 32.1
15 Wofford 31.5
16 Western Illinois 30.9
17 Northern Arizona 30.5
18 South Dakota St 30.4
19 Jacksonville St 29.4
20 Robert Morris 29.2
21 Sacramento St 29.1
22 Eastern Washington 28.6
23 North Dakota St 27.8
24 Old Dominion 27.7
25 Furman 27.7
26 Chattanooga 27.7
27 Stephen F. Austin 27.6
28 Northern Iowa 27.4
29 Southern Utah 27.4
30 Elon 27.3
31 Montana 26.5
32 Brown 26.3
33 SE Missouri St 26.2
34 Eastern Kentucky 25.1
35 Lehigh 25.1
36 Harvard 25.1
37 Dayton 24.9
38 Cal Poly SLO 24.0
39 Southern Illinois 23.9
40 Missouri St 23.1
41 Weber St 22.7
42 Jacksonville FL 22.6
43 Stony Brook 22.4
44 Murray St 22.3
45 North Dakota 22.1
46 Youngstown St 21.7
47 McNeese St 21.5
48 Yale 21.5
49 Towson 21.5
50 Coastal Carolina 21.4
51 Albany NY 21.4
52 Bryant 21.3
53 Dartmouth 21.1
54 Monmouth NJ 21.0
55 Duquesne 20.9
56 South Dakota 20.8
57 Indiana St 20.8
58 Central Conn St 20.3
59 Fordham 20.1
60 UC-Davis 20.0
61 Samford 19.1
62 Illinois St 18.6
63 Columbia 18.3
64 Tennessee Tech 18.1
65 Northern Colorado 17.8
66 Central Arkansas 17.6
67 Sam Houston St 17.4
68 Texas St-San Marcos 17.3
69 Colgate 17.2
70 Holy Cross 17.2
71 Tennessee-Martin 16.7
72 Bethune-Cookman 16.5
73 Lafayette 16.5
74 Sacred Heart 16.3
75 Grambling St 16.0
76 Jackson St 15.4
77 Wagner 15.1
78 Drake 15.1
79 Portland St 15.1
80 SE Louisiana St 15.0
81 South Carolina St 12.4
82 Texas Southern 12.1
83 Georgetown DC 12.1
84 Eastern Illinois 11.8
85 Northwestern St 11.5
86 Tennessee St 11.3
87 San Diego 10.7
88 Idaho St 10.3
89 Prairie View A&M 10.0
90 Gardner-Webb 9.5
91 Princeton 8.9
92 Lamar 7.9
93 The Citadel 7.7
94 Florida A&M 7.6
95 St Francis PA 7.5
96 Alcorn St 7.3
97 Cornell NY 7.3
98 Western Carolina 6.8
99 Alabama St 6.5
100 Nicholls St 6.4
101 Hampton 6.2
102 Campbell 5.9
103 Morehead St 5.4
104 Marist 5.4
105 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 5.2
106 Presbyterian 5.0
107 VMI 4.9
108 Charleston Southern 4.9
109 Bucknell 4.3
110 Butler 4.0
111 d2 3.6
112 Norfolk St 2.5
113 Austin Peay 2.2
114 Alabama A&M 0.7
115 North Carolina Central -0.7
116 Delaware St -2.6
117 Southern U. -2.7
118 Davidson -3.2
119 Morgan St -3.7
120 Howard -8.3
121 North Carolina A&T -8.7
122 Valparaiso -12.9
123 Savannah St -20.7
124 Mississippi Valley St -20.7
The FBS has Oregon 4 points better than Boise and they in turn are 5 points better than TCU.
In the FCS the CAA dominates probably due to James Madison's defeat of Virginia Tech.
home field advantage is 3.2 points
FBS
Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent
1 Oregon 72.4
2 Boise St 68.4
3 TCU 63.5
4 Stanford 60.7
5 Auburn 59.7
6 Virginia Tech 58.8
7 Alabama 58.0
8 Ohio State 57.0
9 Arkansas 56.4
10 Wisconsin 55.4
11 Oregon St 55.1
12 South Carolina 55.1
13 Nebraska 55.1
14 Nevada 54.3
15 LSU 54.0
16 Arizona St 53.7
17 California 53.3
18 Missouri 53.1
19 Southern Cal 52.9
20 Oklahoma St 52.6
21 Iowa 52.5
22 Oklahoma 51.9
23 Texas A&M 51.1
24 Arizona 51.0
25 Michigan St 50.0
26 North Carolina St 49.9
27 San Diego St 49.8
28 Miami FL 49.8
29 Clemson 49.8
30 Florida St 49.7
31 Pittsburgh 47.8
32 West Virginia 47.2
33 Mississippi St 46.9
34 Utah 46.7
35 Georgia 46.2
36 Florida 46.1
37 Air Force 45.8
38 Notre Dame 45.1
39 North Carolina 45.1
40 Kentucky 45.1
41 Hawai`i 44.6
42 Illinois 44.3
43 Georgia Tech 42.7
44 Central Florida 42.7
45 Washington St 42.5
46 Navy 42.4
47 Texas 42.0
48 Washington 42.0
49 Northern Illinois 41.8
50 Kansas St 41.8
51 Mississippi 41.1
52 UCLA 41.1
53 Maryland 41.0
54 Louisville 40.8
55 Michigan 40.7
56 Tennessee 40.0
57 Texas Tech 39.7
58 Southern Miss 39.3
59 Iowa St 39.2
60 Connecticut 39.2
61 Fresno St 39.2
62 Syracuse 39.2
63 Virginia 39.2
64 Boston College 39.1
65 Tulsa 38.7
66 Penn State 38.6
67 Temple 38.3
68 Cincinnati 38.3
69 SMU 38.2
70 Northwestern 38.2
71 Colorado 38.1
72 South Florida 37.3
73 Baylor 36.8
74 Brigham Young 36.7
75 East Carolina 36.5
76 Ohio U. 35.4
77 Florida Int'l 35.3
78 Troy 34.9
79 Purdue 34.0
80 Houston 33.5
81 Rutgers 33.3
82 Utah St 33.0
83 Duke 32.9
84 Minnesota 32.9
85 Army 32.5
86 Alabama-Birmingham 32.5
87 Louisiana Tech 31.6
88 Central Michigan 30.9
89 Toledo 30.7
90 Indiana 30.7
91 Arkansas St 30.3
92 Idaho 29.7
93 UTEP 29.4
94 Vanderbilt 29.2
95 Kansas 29.0
96 Florida Atlantic 28.4
97 Marshall 27.8
98 Wyoming 27.2
99 San José St 27.1
100 Western Michigan 26.9
101 Colorado St 26.5
102 Bowling Green 26.3
103 Wake Forest 26.3
104 Louisiana-Monroe 25.7
105 Miami OH 25.0
106 Rice 24.5
107 Kent St 23.2
108 Ball St 23.0
109 North Texas 22.3
110 Tulane 22.3
111 Western Kentucky 22.2
112 UNLV 21.8
113 Louisiana-Lafayette 21.8
114 Buffalo 21.6
115 Middle Tennessee St 20.5
116 New Mexico 17.6
117 New Mexico St 15.6
118 Eastern Michigan 15.6
119 Memphis 11.9
120 Akron 8.5
FCS
1 Delaware 48.2
2 William & Mary 46.6
3 James Madison 45.9
4 Villanova 45.8
5 New Hampshire 44.7
6 Massachusetts 38.7
7 Rhode Island 35.4
8 Pennsylvania 33.9
9 Montana St 33.8
10 Maine 33.2
11 Appalachian St 32.7
12 Richmond 32.6
13 Georgia Southern 32.6
14 Liberty 32.1
15 Wofford 31.5
16 Western Illinois 30.9
17 Northern Arizona 30.5
18 South Dakota St 30.4
19 Jacksonville St 29.4
20 Robert Morris 29.2
21 Sacramento St 29.1
22 Eastern Washington 28.6
23 North Dakota St 27.8
24 Old Dominion 27.7
25 Furman 27.7
26 Chattanooga 27.7
27 Stephen F. Austin 27.6
28 Northern Iowa 27.4
29 Southern Utah 27.4
30 Elon 27.3
31 Montana 26.5
32 Brown 26.3
33 SE Missouri St 26.2
34 Eastern Kentucky 25.1
35 Lehigh 25.1
36 Harvard 25.1
37 Dayton 24.9
38 Cal Poly SLO 24.0
39 Southern Illinois 23.9
40 Missouri St 23.1
41 Weber St 22.7
42 Jacksonville FL 22.6
43 Stony Brook 22.4
44 Murray St 22.3
45 North Dakota 22.1
46 Youngstown St 21.7
47 McNeese St 21.5
48 Yale 21.5
49 Towson 21.5
50 Coastal Carolina 21.4
51 Albany NY 21.4
52 Bryant 21.3
53 Dartmouth 21.1
54 Monmouth NJ 21.0
55 Duquesne 20.9
56 South Dakota 20.8
57 Indiana St 20.8
58 Central Conn St 20.3
59 Fordham 20.1
60 UC-Davis 20.0
61 Samford 19.1
62 Illinois St 18.6
63 Columbia 18.3
64 Tennessee Tech 18.1
65 Northern Colorado 17.8
66 Central Arkansas 17.6
67 Sam Houston St 17.4
68 Texas St-San Marcos 17.3
69 Colgate 17.2
70 Holy Cross 17.2
71 Tennessee-Martin 16.7
72 Bethune-Cookman 16.5
73 Lafayette 16.5
74 Sacred Heart 16.3
75 Grambling St 16.0
76 Jackson St 15.4
77 Wagner 15.1
78 Drake 15.1
79 Portland St 15.1
80 SE Louisiana St 15.0
81 South Carolina St 12.4
82 Texas Southern 12.1
83 Georgetown DC 12.1
84 Eastern Illinois 11.8
85 Northwestern St 11.5
86 Tennessee St 11.3
87 San Diego 10.7
88 Idaho St 10.3
89 Prairie View A&M 10.0
90 Gardner-Webb 9.5
91 Princeton 8.9
92 Lamar 7.9
93 The Citadel 7.7
94 Florida A&M 7.6
95 St Francis PA 7.5
96 Alcorn St 7.3
97 Cornell NY 7.3
98 Western Carolina 6.8
99 Alabama St 6.5
100 Nicholls St 6.4
101 Hampton 6.2
102 Campbell 5.9
103 Morehead St 5.4
104 Marist 5.4
105 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 5.2
106 Presbyterian 5.0
107 VMI 4.9
108 Charleston Southern 4.9
109 Bucknell 4.3
110 Butler 4.0
111 d2 3.6
112 Norfolk St 2.5
113 Austin Peay 2.2
114 Alabama A&M 0.7
115 North Carolina Central -0.7
116 Delaware St -2.6
117 Southern U. -2.7
118 Davidson -3.2
119 Morgan St -3.7
120 Howard -8.3
121 North Carolina A&T -8.7
122 Valparaiso -12.9
123 Savannah St -20.7
124 Mississippi Valley St -20.7
Week 12 Noah Chain ratings
Here they are scores courtesy of Peter Wolfe.
1 Oregon 0.8841
2 Stanford 0.8834
3 Oklahoma st 0.8801
4 TCU 0.8703
5 Auburn 0.8686
6 Oklahoma 0.8631
7 Texas A&M 0.8610
8 Arkansas 0.8465
9 Nebraska 0.8428
10 Missouri 0.8412
11 Boise st 0.8393
12 LSU 0.8352
13 Alabama 0.8160
14 Wisconsin 0.8156
15 Ohio state 0.8154
16 Michigan st 0.7913
17 Arizona 0.7561
18 Virginia Tech 0.7535
19 Baylor 0.7512
20 South Carolina 0.7400
21 Texas Tech 0.7286
22 Iowa 0.7268
23 Southern Cal 0.7268
24 Mississippi st 0.7161
25 Utah 0.7100
26 Kansas st 0.7062
27 Texas 0.6876
28 Florida st 0.6823
29 Florida 0.6773
30 Nevada 0.6754
31 Michigan 0.6732
32 Washington 0.6725
33 Air Force 0.6596
34 Oregon st 0.6533
35 UCLA 0.6450
36 California 0.6422
37 North Carolina St 0.6369
38 Iowa st 0.6367
39 Penn state 0.6349
40 Miami FL 0.6186
41 North Carolina 0.6104
42 Colorado 0.6102
43 Kentucky 0.5919
44 Northwestern 0.5903
45 Hawai`i 0.5848
46 Notre Dame 0.5788
47 Illinois 0.5748
48 Tennessee 0.5665
49 Clemson 0.5654
50 Central Florida 0.5651
51 Navy 0.5636
52 San Diego st 0.5470
53 Maryland 0.5427
54 Arizona St 0.5404
55 Brigham Young 0.5369
56 Georgia 0.5330
57 Northern Illinois 0.5304
58 Tulsa 0.5248
59 West Virginia 0.5242
60 Temple 0.5002
61 Mississippi 0.4954
62 East Carolina 0.4941
63 Boston College 0.4909
64 Fresno st 0.4899
65 Georgia Tech 0.4898
66 Southern Miss 0.4673
67 Pittsburgh 0.4628
68 Kansas 0.4533
69 Purdue 0.4316
70 South Florida 0.4275
71 SMU 0.4235
72 Connecticut 0.4194
73 Syracuse 0.4156
74 Toledo 0.4153
75 Indiana 0.4063
76 Minnesota 0.3903
77 Washington st 0.3818
78 Louisville 0.3668
79 Ohio U. 0.3658
80 Army 0.3596
81 Duke 0.3567
82 Cincinnati 0.3566
83 Virginia 0.3546
84 Houston 0.3538
85 Miami OH 0.3508
86 Utah st 0.3507
87 Vanderbilt 0.3470
88 Idaho 0.3302
89 Louisiana Tech 0.3201
90 Rice 0.2962
91 Rutgers 0.2900
92 Tulane 0.2875
93 Wake Forest 0.2864
94 Colorado st 0.2604
95 Wyoming 0.2594
96 UNLV 0.2585
97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.2530
98 UTEP 0.2522
99 Marshall 0.2498
100 Florida Int'l 0.2318
101 Troy 0.2198
102 Western Michigan 0.2063
103 Kent st 0.1992
104 San José St 0.1932
105 Louisiana-Monroe 0.1826
106 Florida Atlantic 0.1680
107 New Mexico st 0.1597
108 New Mexico 0.1509
109 Arkansas St 0.1453
110 aa 0.1446
111 Bowling Green 0.1379
112 Central Michigan 0.1348
113 Ball St 0.1322
114 Buffalo 0.1196
115 Middle Tennessee St 0.1144
116 Eastern Michigan 0.1134
117 Memphis 0.1069
118 North Texas 0.1010
119 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0892
120 Western Kentucky 0.0875
121 Akron 0.0809
1 Oregon 0.8841
2 Stanford 0.8834
3 Oklahoma st 0.8801
4 TCU 0.8703
5 Auburn 0.8686
6 Oklahoma 0.8631
7 Texas A&M 0.8610
8 Arkansas 0.8465
9 Nebraska 0.8428
10 Missouri 0.8412
11 Boise st 0.8393
12 LSU 0.8352
13 Alabama 0.8160
14 Wisconsin 0.8156
15 Ohio state 0.8154
16 Michigan st 0.7913
17 Arizona 0.7561
18 Virginia Tech 0.7535
19 Baylor 0.7512
20 South Carolina 0.7400
21 Texas Tech 0.7286
22 Iowa 0.7268
23 Southern Cal 0.7268
24 Mississippi st 0.7161
25 Utah 0.7100
26 Kansas st 0.7062
27 Texas 0.6876
28 Florida st 0.6823
29 Florida 0.6773
30 Nevada 0.6754
31 Michigan 0.6732
32 Washington 0.6725
33 Air Force 0.6596
34 Oregon st 0.6533
35 UCLA 0.6450
36 California 0.6422
37 North Carolina St 0.6369
38 Iowa st 0.6367
39 Penn state 0.6349
40 Miami FL 0.6186
41 North Carolina 0.6104
42 Colorado 0.6102
43 Kentucky 0.5919
44 Northwestern 0.5903
45 Hawai`i 0.5848
46 Notre Dame 0.5788
47 Illinois 0.5748
48 Tennessee 0.5665
49 Clemson 0.5654
50 Central Florida 0.5651
51 Navy 0.5636
52 San Diego st 0.5470
53 Maryland 0.5427
54 Arizona St 0.5404
55 Brigham Young 0.5369
56 Georgia 0.5330
57 Northern Illinois 0.5304
58 Tulsa 0.5248
59 West Virginia 0.5242
60 Temple 0.5002
61 Mississippi 0.4954
62 East Carolina 0.4941
63 Boston College 0.4909
64 Fresno st 0.4899
65 Georgia Tech 0.4898
66 Southern Miss 0.4673
67 Pittsburgh 0.4628
68 Kansas 0.4533
69 Purdue 0.4316
70 South Florida 0.4275
71 SMU 0.4235
72 Connecticut 0.4194
73 Syracuse 0.4156
74 Toledo 0.4153
75 Indiana 0.4063
76 Minnesota 0.3903
77 Washington st 0.3818
78 Louisville 0.3668
79 Ohio U. 0.3658
80 Army 0.3596
81 Duke 0.3567
82 Cincinnati 0.3566
83 Virginia 0.3546
84 Houston 0.3538
85 Miami OH 0.3508
86 Utah st 0.3507
87 Vanderbilt 0.3470
88 Idaho 0.3302
89 Louisiana Tech 0.3201
90 Rice 0.2962
91 Rutgers 0.2900
92 Tulane 0.2875
93 Wake Forest 0.2864
94 Colorado st 0.2604
95 Wyoming 0.2594
96 UNLV 0.2585
97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.2530
98 UTEP 0.2522
99 Marshall 0.2498
100 Florida Int'l 0.2318
101 Troy 0.2198
102 Western Michigan 0.2063
103 Kent st 0.1992
104 San José St 0.1932
105 Louisiana-Monroe 0.1826
106 Florida Atlantic 0.1680
107 New Mexico st 0.1597
108 New Mexico 0.1509
109 Arkansas St 0.1453
110 aa 0.1446
111 Bowling Green 0.1379
112 Central Michigan 0.1348
113 Ball St 0.1322
114 Buffalo 0.1196
115 Middle Tennessee St 0.1144
116 Eastern Michigan 0.1134
117 Memphis 0.1069
118 North Texas 0.1010
119 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0892
120 Western Kentucky 0.0875
121 Akron 0.0809
Sunday, 14 November 2010
NEW ranking system Pointshare MOV for FBS and FCS College football teams.
Pointshare MOV college football rating system
This system uses margin of victory and takes venue into account. Therefore it is probably not BCS compliant but it may reflect the strength of teams better. The system combines a game outcome function which is similar approach to the Massey MOV and Sauceda rating systems (although I don’t know how their GOFs are derived) but also uses a method similar to the Random walker method to determine the overall rating.
Each game score is converted to a performance level or Game outcome function depending on the score. This is done by determining the likelihood of a teams true scoring rate in a game given the number of points it actually scored and then determining how likely the winning team would be to win a re-match given the distribution of true scoring rates of it and its opponents. (See table in the document on google docs linked on the right side panel of my blog.)
Game scores are kindly provided by Peter Wolfe on his website.
When two teams play their ratings are pooled and then redistributed based on the game outcome. So if a 100 rating team plays a 200 rating team but achieves a game outcome of 40% their new rating is 120 (40% of 100+200) and their opponent drops to 180 despite winning the game. I think this is a similar method to the random walker method except they use a single value for all games regardless of the score.
A teams overall rating is calculated iteratively and is equal to its average performance against all opponents plus the sum of the product of each opponents rating by the game performance against each opponent divided by all games.
R(new)= R(old)*average GOF+ (Ra*GOFa + Rb*GOFb+…..+Rn*GOFn)/n
Where GOFa is the teams game outcome function against team a and Ra is team A’s old rating.
This converges very quickly for the c.240 teams in the FBS and FCS. Each team starts with a rating of 100
Home field advantage
In college football the GOF of home teams is approximately 1.4 times that of the away team in CONFERENCE games. Non Conference games are ignored as strong teams tend to play at home against weaker teams. So the GOF for home teams are reduced to reflect this which means a narrow win at home will see a team have an adjusted GOF below 50%.
Conversion to pointspread equivalent.
I noticed that the relationship between the odds of winning (moneyline) and the point spread is 9*lnODDS=-p where lnODDS is the natural log of the ratio of odds or ratings in this case and p is the pointspread. Therefore the rating can be converted to a pointspread equivalent quite easily. This also means that the 1.4 advantage home teams have translates to 3 points which is similar to the usual convention for HFA.
Here are the ratings and pointspread equivalent for teams in the FBS and FCS (scroll down) with all division 2 or lower teams grouped together as D2.
The top two teams are Oregon and TCU with Boise 3rd and Stanford 4th ahead of Auburn.
FBS Team Rating Pointspread equivalent
1 Oregon 5184.345 77.6
2 TCU 1783.151 67.9
3 Boise St 1480.828 66.2
4 Stanford 683.2115 59.2
5 Auburn 528.369 56.9
6 Oregon St 474.0888 55.9
7 Virginia Tech 468.21 55.8
8 Arizona St 459.5909 55.6
9 Nebraska 423.9733 54.9
10 Alabama 420.518 54.8
11 Iowa 410.2021 54.6
12 Ohio State 396.6969 54.3
13 Southern Cal 385.2052 54.0
14 Wisconsin 384.0203 54.0
15 Nevada 354.8422 53.3
16 Arkansas 334.2194 52.7
17 LSU 331.9776 52.7
18 Arizona 295.5589 51.6
19 South Carolina 266.8526 50.7
20 Oklahoma St 256.8332 50.3
21 Missouri 245.3054 49.9
22 California 239.2264 49.7
23 Michigan St 231.0137 49.4
24 Miami FL 227.4956 49.2
25 Oklahoma 223.3273 49.1
26 North Carolina St 215.8896 48.8
27 Florida St 211.0954 48.6
28 Clemson 203.5851 48.2
29 Texas A&M 184.1575 47.3
30 Mississippi St 183.0386 47.3
31 Pittsburgh 179.9845 47.1
32 Utah 176.6787 47.0
33 Florida 156.513 45.9
34 North Carolina 156.0809 45.8
35 Georgia 139.3473 44.8
36 Central Florida 138.7531 44.8
37 Georgia Tech 122.221 43.6
38 Air Force 120.7216 43.5
39 Hawai`i 113.9912 43.0
40 West Virginia 113.0832 42.9
41 San Diego St 112.1459 42.8
42 Kansas St 111.8281 42.8
43 Kentucky 110.7044 42.7
44 UCLA 107.7623 42.5
45 Illinois 107.5116 42.4
46 Texas 106.27 42.3
47 Washington 102.5637 42.0
48 Louisville 97.99605 41.6
49 Navy 93.60627 41.2
50 Virginia 92.61492 41.1
51 Iowa St 90.82699 40.9
52 Notre Dame 87.9878 40.6
53 Michigan 84.28704 40.2
54 Texas Tech 75.56445 39.2
55 Maryland 74.12913 39.1
56 Syracuse 70.86747 38.7
57 Baylor 70.79884 38.7
58 Mississippi 70.72381 38.6
59 Washington St 68.17595 38.3
60 SMU 67.47738 38.2
61 Northern Illinois 66.71846 38.1
62 Cincinnati 63.40854 37.7
63 Penn State 62.49354 37.5
64 Boston College 61.75472 37.4
65 Troy 61.69796 37.4
66 Temple 60.47248 37.2
67 Tulsa 60.42331 37.2
68 Fresno St 55.32269 36.4
69 Tennessee 52.34927 35.9
70 Houston 49.41053 35.4
71 East Carolina 49.10417 35.3
72 South Florida 45.52647 34.6
73 Colorado 41.79995 33.9
74 Brigham Young 41.65948 33.8
75 Indiana 39.85539 33.4
76 Army 38.74808 33.2
77 Rutgers 38.32826 33.1
78 Northwestern 38.12959 33.0
79 Duke 35.84988 32.5
80 Southern Miss 34.54513 32.1
81 Alabama-Birmingham 34.52837 32.1
82 Connecticut 34.18765 32.0
83 Arkansas St 33.99982 32.0
84 Utah St 33.47433 31.9
85 Ohio U. 32.96159 31.7
86 Florida Int'l 29.00454 30.6
87 Florida Atlantic 24.24935 28.9
88 Louisiana Tech 23.86547 28.8
89 Minnesota 23.20565 28.5
90 UTEP 22.08929 28.1
91 Toledo 21.90047 28.0
92 Kansas 21.06992 27.7
93 Purdue 19.90891 27.1
94 Wake Forest 19.90112 27.1
95 San José St 19.29113 26.9
96 Bowling Green 19.08979 26.8
97 Vanderbilt 18.92456 26.7
98 Idaho 18.89344 26.7
99 Louisiana-Monroe 17.91419 26.2
100 Marshall 16.79223 25.6
101 Central Michigan 16.22787 25.3
102 Kent St 15.42221 24.8
103 Wyoming 14.50737 24.3
104 Colorado St 14.49087 24.3
105 Miami OH 12.0856 22.6
106 North Texas 11.90037 22.5
107 Tulane 11.77297 22.4
108 Buffalo 11.59121 22.2
109 Western Michigan 11.46501 22.1
110 Louisiana-Lafayette 11.02512 21.8
111 Rice 9.25393 20.2
112 Middle Tennessee St 9.117041 20.1
113 Ball St 8.834057 19.8
114 Western Kentucky 8.375797 19.3
115 UNLV 6.891802 17.5
116 New Mexico St 5.151725 14.9
117 New Mexico 4.558932 13.8
118 Eastern Michigan 4.249599 13.1
119 Memphis 2.700606 9.0
120 Akron 2.258519 7.4
FCS
Team Rating Pointspread equivalent
1 Delaware 196.3728 47.9
2 William & Mary 143.0451 45.0
3 James Madison 116.5738 43.2
4 Villanova 112.7004 42.9
5 New Hampshire 93.10309 41.1
6 Massachusetts 72.89346 38.9
7 Rhode Island 41.29325 33.8
8 Appalachian St 37.70898 32.9
9 Liberty 34.1405 32.0
10 Wofford 32.93466 31.7
11 Richmond 31.68418 31.4
12 Montana St 31.21334 31.2
13 Georgia Southern 31.17817 31.2
14 Pennsylvania 29.86806 30.8
15 Maine 28.86465 30.5
16 Northern Arizona 28.84453 30.5
17 Jacksonville St 27.02577 29.9
18 Robert Morris 26.36138 29.7
19 Western Illinois 25.80148 29.5
20 South Dakota St 25.48472 29.4
21 Sacramento St 23.00522 28.5
22 Chattanooga 21.67159 27.9
23 Eastern Washington 20.02833 27.2
24 Old Dominion 19.74105 27.1
25 Southern Utah 18.96295 26.7
26 Elon 18.69918 26.6
27 Harvard 17.65648 26.1
28 Northern Iowa 17.47587 26.0
29 Furman 17.16505 25.8
30 Montana 16.99293 25.7
31 North Dakota St 16.52577 25.5
32 Dayton 16.11616 25.2
33 Eastern Kentucky 15.36893 24.8
34 Stephen F. Austin 14.91009 24.5
35 Brown 14.06444 24.0
36 Cal Poly SLO 13.34919 23.5
37 SE Missouri St 13.03418 23.3
38 Lehigh 12.56006 23.0
39 Jacksonville FL 12.54061 22.9
40 Bethune-Cookman 12.49424 22.9
41 Missouri St 11.87692 22.5
42 Stony Brook 11.59604 22.2
43 Murray St 10.69802 21.5
44 North Dakota 10.58629 21.4
45 Yale 10.20351 21.1
46 Weber St 10.09802 21.0
47 Monmouth NJ 9.877297 20.8
48 Samford 9.874905 20.8
49 Fordham 9.776825 20.7
50 Youngstown St 9.723647 20.6
51 Indiana St 9.620118 20.5
52 Dartmouth 8.693037 19.6
53 McNeese St 8.590172 19.5
54 Bryant 8.262883 19.2
55 South Dakota 8.152946 19.0
56 Columbia 8.023212 18.9
57 Towson 7.885754 18.7
58 Albany NY 7.77814 18.6
59 Duquesne 7.717862 18.5
60 Central Conn St 7.44113 18.2
61 Southern Illinois 7.373818 18.1
62 Central Arkansas 7.044184 17.7
63 Illinois St 6.902038 17.5
64 Texas St-San Marcos 6.803899 17.4
65 UC-Davis 6.393878 16.8
66 SE Louisiana St 6.203556 16.6
67 Lafayette 5.864756 16.1
68 Northern Colorado 5.718477 15.8
69 Grambling St 5.585114 15.6
70 Wagner 5.534818 15.5
71 Portland St 5.436309 15.4
72 Sam Houston St 5.405838 15.3
73 Drake 5.300539 15.1
74 Sacred Heart 4.951917 14.5
75 Holy Cross 4.860824 14.3
76 Tennessee-Martin 4.846951 14.3
77 Northwestern St 4.609059 13.9
78 Colgate 4.020088 12.6
79 Georgetown DC 3.949832 12.5
80 Tennessee Tech 3.815384 12.2
81 Jackson St 3.77406 12.1
82 Coastal Carolina 3.683858 11.8
83 Eastern Illinois 3.308669 10.9
84 South Carolina St 3.288947 10.8
85 Idaho St 3.135481 10.4
86 San Diego 3.033644 10.1
87 Gardner-Webb 2.858926 9.5
88 Texas Southern 2.618991 8.7
89 Tennessee St 2.558959 8.5
90 Western Carolina 2.311307 7.6
91 Alcorn St 2.263344 7.4
92 Hampton 2.237488 7.3
93 St Francis PA 2.134439 6.9
94 Prairie View A&M 1.998817 6.3
95 Princeton 1.984008 6.2
96 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 1.84588 5.6
97 Charleston Southern 1.831888 5.5
98 Cornell NY 1.790031 5.3
99 Alabama St 1.703315 4.8
100 Bucknell 1.695328 4.8
101 The Citadel 1.645554 4.5
102 Morehead St 1.622142 4.4
103 Lamar 1.5629 4.1
104 Presbyterian 1.546238 4.0
105 VMI 1.43587 3.3
106 d2 1.421353 3.2
107 Norfolk St 1.387988 3.0
108 Campbell 1.245819 2.0
109 Butler 1.231235 1.9
110 Nicholls St 1.204719 1.7
111 Marist 1.174381 1.5
112 Alabama A&M 1.075315 0.7
113 Austin Peay 0.907895 - 0.9
114 Florida A&M 0.861907 - 1.3
115 North Carolina Central 0.743629 - 2.7
116 Davidson 0.691645 - 3.3
117 Morgan St 0.609259 - 4.5
118 Delaware St 0.549618 - 5.4
119 Southern U. 0.54439 - 5.5
120 North Carolina A&T 0.346754 - 9.6
121 Howard 0.317541 - 10.4
122 Valparaiso 0.248934 - 12.6
123 Mississippi Valley St 0.085923 - 22.3
124 Savannah St 0.052963 - 26.7
This system uses margin of victory and takes venue into account. Therefore it is probably not BCS compliant but it may reflect the strength of teams better. The system combines a game outcome function which is similar approach to the Massey MOV and Sauceda rating systems (although I don’t know how their GOFs are derived) but also uses a method similar to the Random walker method to determine the overall rating.
Each game score is converted to a performance level or Game outcome function depending on the score. This is done by determining the likelihood of a teams true scoring rate in a game given the number of points it actually scored and then determining how likely the winning team would be to win a re-match given the distribution of true scoring rates of it and its opponents. (See table in the document on google docs linked on the right side panel of my blog.)
Game scores are kindly provided by Peter Wolfe on his website.
When two teams play their ratings are pooled and then redistributed based on the game outcome. So if a 100 rating team plays a 200 rating team but achieves a game outcome of 40% their new rating is 120 (40% of 100+200) and their opponent drops to 180 despite winning the game. I think this is a similar method to the random walker method except they use a single value for all games regardless of the score.
A teams overall rating is calculated iteratively and is equal to its average performance against all opponents plus the sum of the product of each opponents rating by the game performance against each opponent divided by all games.
R(new)= R(old)*average GOF+ (Ra*GOFa + Rb*GOFb+…..+Rn*GOFn)/n
Where GOFa is the teams game outcome function against team a and Ra is team A’s old rating.
This converges very quickly for the c.240 teams in the FBS and FCS. Each team starts with a rating of 100
Home field advantage
In college football the GOF of home teams is approximately 1.4 times that of the away team in CONFERENCE games. Non Conference games are ignored as strong teams tend to play at home against weaker teams. So the GOF for home teams are reduced to reflect this which means a narrow win at home will see a team have an adjusted GOF below 50%.
Conversion to pointspread equivalent.
I noticed that the relationship between the odds of winning (moneyline) and the point spread is 9*lnODDS=-p where lnODDS is the natural log of the ratio of odds or ratings in this case and p is the pointspread. Therefore the rating can be converted to a pointspread equivalent quite easily. This also means that the 1.4 advantage home teams have translates to 3 points which is similar to the usual convention for HFA.
Here are the ratings and pointspread equivalent for teams in the FBS and FCS (scroll down) with all division 2 or lower teams grouped together as D2.
The top two teams are Oregon and TCU with Boise 3rd and Stanford 4th ahead of Auburn.
FBS Team Rating Pointspread equivalent
1 Oregon 5184.345 77.6
2 TCU 1783.151 67.9
3 Boise St 1480.828 66.2
4 Stanford 683.2115 59.2
5 Auburn 528.369 56.9
6 Oregon St 474.0888 55.9
7 Virginia Tech 468.21 55.8
8 Arizona St 459.5909 55.6
9 Nebraska 423.9733 54.9
10 Alabama 420.518 54.8
11 Iowa 410.2021 54.6
12 Ohio State 396.6969 54.3
13 Southern Cal 385.2052 54.0
14 Wisconsin 384.0203 54.0
15 Nevada 354.8422 53.3
16 Arkansas 334.2194 52.7
17 LSU 331.9776 52.7
18 Arizona 295.5589 51.6
19 South Carolina 266.8526 50.7
20 Oklahoma St 256.8332 50.3
21 Missouri 245.3054 49.9
22 California 239.2264 49.7
23 Michigan St 231.0137 49.4
24 Miami FL 227.4956 49.2
25 Oklahoma 223.3273 49.1
26 North Carolina St 215.8896 48.8
27 Florida St 211.0954 48.6
28 Clemson 203.5851 48.2
29 Texas A&M 184.1575 47.3
30 Mississippi St 183.0386 47.3
31 Pittsburgh 179.9845 47.1
32 Utah 176.6787 47.0
33 Florida 156.513 45.9
34 North Carolina 156.0809 45.8
35 Georgia 139.3473 44.8
36 Central Florida 138.7531 44.8
37 Georgia Tech 122.221 43.6
38 Air Force 120.7216 43.5
39 Hawai`i 113.9912 43.0
40 West Virginia 113.0832 42.9
41 San Diego St 112.1459 42.8
42 Kansas St 111.8281 42.8
43 Kentucky 110.7044 42.7
44 UCLA 107.7623 42.5
45 Illinois 107.5116 42.4
46 Texas 106.27 42.3
47 Washington 102.5637 42.0
48 Louisville 97.99605 41.6
49 Navy 93.60627 41.2
50 Virginia 92.61492 41.1
51 Iowa St 90.82699 40.9
52 Notre Dame 87.9878 40.6
53 Michigan 84.28704 40.2
54 Texas Tech 75.56445 39.2
55 Maryland 74.12913 39.1
56 Syracuse 70.86747 38.7
57 Baylor 70.79884 38.7
58 Mississippi 70.72381 38.6
59 Washington St 68.17595 38.3
60 SMU 67.47738 38.2
61 Northern Illinois 66.71846 38.1
62 Cincinnati 63.40854 37.7
63 Penn State 62.49354 37.5
64 Boston College 61.75472 37.4
65 Troy 61.69796 37.4
66 Temple 60.47248 37.2
67 Tulsa 60.42331 37.2
68 Fresno St 55.32269 36.4
69 Tennessee 52.34927 35.9
70 Houston 49.41053 35.4
71 East Carolina 49.10417 35.3
72 South Florida 45.52647 34.6
73 Colorado 41.79995 33.9
74 Brigham Young 41.65948 33.8
75 Indiana 39.85539 33.4
76 Army 38.74808 33.2
77 Rutgers 38.32826 33.1
78 Northwestern 38.12959 33.0
79 Duke 35.84988 32.5
80 Southern Miss 34.54513 32.1
81 Alabama-Birmingham 34.52837 32.1
82 Connecticut 34.18765 32.0
83 Arkansas St 33.99982 32.0
84 Utah St 33.47433 31.9
85 Ohio U. 32.96159 31.7
86 Florida Int'l 29.00454 30.6
87 Florida Atlantic 24.24935 28.9
88 Louisiana Tech 23.86547 28.8
89 Minnesota 23.20565 28.5
90 UTEP 22.08929 28.1
91 Toledo 21.90047 28.0
92 Kansas 21.06992 27.7
93 Purdue 19.90891 27.1
94 Wake Forest 19.90112 27.1
95 San José St 19.29113 26.9
96 Bowling Green 19.08979 26.8
97 Vanderbilt 18.92456 26.7
98 Idaho 18.89344 26.7
99 Louisiana-Monroe 17.91419 26.2
100 Marshall 16.79223 25.6
101 Central Michigan 16.22787 25.3
102 Kent St 15.42221 24.8
103 Wyoming 14.50737 24.3
104 Colorado St 14.49087 24.3
105 Miami OH 12.0856 22.6
106 North Texas 11.90037 22.5
107 Tulane 11.77297 22.4
108 Buffalo 11.59121 22.2
109 Western Michigan 11.46501 22.1
110 Louisiana-Lafayette 11.02512 21.8
111 Rice 9.25393 20.2
112 Middle Tennessee St 9.117041 20.1
113 Ball St 8.834057 19.8
114 Western Kentucky 8.375797 19.3
115 UNLV 6.891802 17.5
116 New Mexico St 5.151725 14.9
117 New Mexico 4.558932 13.8
118 Eastern Michigan 4.249599 13.1
119 Memphis 2.700606 9.0
120 Akron 2.258519 7.4
FCS
Team Rating Pointspread equivalent
1 Delaware 196.3728 47.9
2 William & Mary 143.0451 45.0
3 James Madison 116.5738 43.2
4 Villanova 112.7004 42.9
5 New Hampshire 93.10309 41.1
6 Massachusetts 72.89346 38.9
7 Rhode Island 41.29325 33.8
8 Appalachian St 37.70898 32.9
9 Liberty 34.1405 32.0
10 Wofford 32.93466 31.7
11 Richmond 31.68418 31.4
12 Montana St 31.21334 31.2
13 Georgia Southern 31.17817 31.2
14 Pennsylvania 29.86806 30.8
15 Maine 28.86465 30.5
16 Northern Arizona 28.84453 30.5
17 Jacksonville St 27.02577 29.9
18 Robert Morris 26.36138 29.7
19 Western Illinois 25.80148 29.5
20 South Dakota St 25.48472 29.4
21 Sacramento St 23.00522 28.5
22 Chattanooga 21.67159 27.9
23 Eastern Washington 20.02833 27.2
24 Old Dominion 19.74105 27.1
25 Southern Utah 18.96295 26.7
26 Elon 18.69918 26.6
27 Harvard 17.65648 26.1
28 Northern Iowa 17.47587 26.0
29 Furman 17.16505 25.8
30 Montana 16.99293 25.7
31 North Dakota St 16.52577 25.5
32 Dayton 16.11616 25.2
33 Eastern Kentucky 15.36893 24.8
34 Stephen F. Austin 14.91009 24.5
35 Brown 14.06444 24.0
36 Cal Poly SLO 13.34919 23.5
37 SE Missouri St 13.03418 23.3
38 Lehigh 12.56006 23.0
39 Jacksonville FL 12.54061 22.9
40 Bethune-Cookman 12.49424 22.9
41 Missouri St 11.87692 22.5
42 Stony Brook 11.59604 22.2
43 Murray St 10.69802 21.5
44 North Dakota 10.58629 21.4
45 Yale 10.20351 21.1
46 Weber St 10.09802 21.0
47 Monmouth NJ 9.877297 20.8
48 Samford 9.874905 20.8
49 Fordham 9.776825 20.7
50 Youngstown St 9.723647 20.6
51 Indiana St 9.620118 20.5
52 Dartmouth 8.693037 19.6
53 McNeese St 8.590172 19.5
54 Bryant 8.262883 19.2
55 South Dakota 8.152946 19.0
56 Columbia 8.023212 18.9
57 Towson 7.885754 18.7
58 Albany NY 7.77814 18.6
59 Duquesne 7.717862 18.5
60 Central Conn St 7.44113 18.2
61 Southern Illinois 7.373818 18.1
62 Central Arkansas 7.044184 17.7
63 Illinois St 6.902038 17.5
64 Texas St-San Marcos 6.803899 17.4
65 UC-Davis 6.393878 16.8
66 SE Louisiana St 6.203556 16.6
67 Lafayette 5.864756 16.1
68 Northern Colorado 5.718477 15.8
69 Grambling St 5.585114 15.6
70 Wagner 5.534818 15.5
71 Portland St 5.436309 15.4
72 Sam Houston St 5.405838 15.3
73 Drake 5.300539 15.1
74 Sacred Heart 4.951917 14.5
75 Holy Cross 4.860824 14.3
76 Tennessee-Martin 4.846951 14.3
77 Northwestern St 4.609059 13.9
78 Colgate 4.020088 12.6
79 Georgetown DC 3.949832 12.5
80 Tennessee Tech 3.815384 12.2
81 Jackson St 3.77406 12.1
82 Coastal Carolina 3.683858 11.8
83 Eastern Illinois 3.308669 10.9
84 South Carolina St 3.288947 10.8
85 Idaho St 3.135481 10.4
86 San Diego 3.033644 10.1
87 Gardner-Webb 2.858926 9.5
88 Texas Southern 2.618991 8.7
89 Tennessee St 2.558959 8.5
90 Western Carolina 2.311307 7.6
91 Alcorn St 2.263344 7.4
92 Hampton 2.237488 7.3
93 St Francis PA 2.134439 6.9
94 Prairie View A&M 1.998817 6.3
95 Princeton 1.984008 6.2
96 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 1.84588 5.6
97 Charleston Southern 1.831888 5.5
98 Cornell NY 1.790031 5.3
99 Alabama St 1.703315 4.8
100 Bucknell 1.695328 4.8
101 The Citadel 1.645554 4.5
102 Morehead St 1.622142 4.4
103 Lamar 1.5629 4.1
104 Presbyterian 1.546238 4.0
105 VMI 1.43587 3.3
106 d2 1.421353 3.2
107 Norfolk St 1.387988 3.0
108 Campbell 1.245819 2.0
109 Butler 1.231235 1.9
110 Nicholls St 1.204719 1.7
111 Marist 1.174381 1.5
112 Alabama A&M 1.075315 0.7
113 Austin Peay 0.907895 - 0.9
114 Florida A&M 0.861907 - 1.3
115 North Carolina Central 0.743629 - 2.7
116 Davidson 0.691645 - 3.3
117 Morgan St 0.609259 - 4.5
118 Delaware St 0.549618 - 5.4
119 Southern U. 0.54439 - 5.5
120 North Carolina A&T 0.346754 - 9.6
121 Howard 0.317541 - 10.4
122 Valparaiso 0.248934 - 12.6
123 Mississippi Valley St 0.085923 - 22.3
124 Savannah St 0.052963 - 26.7
week 11 NoahChain ratings
Here they are Auburn and TCU are in the top 2 slots
1 Auburn 0.7904
2 TCU 0.7827
3 Nebraska 0.7802
4 Oklahoma st 0.7743
5 LSU 0.7604
6 Stanford 0.7555
7 Oregon 0.7518
8 Oklahoma 0.7356
9 Boise st 0.7316
10 Kansas st 0.7132
11 Missouri 0.7119
12 Arizona 0.7050
13 Alabama 0.7027
14 Iowa 0.7023
15 Arkansas 0.7006
16 Utah 0.6987
17 Wisconsin 0.6973
18 Texas A&M 0.6931
19 Baylor 0.6904
20 Michigan st 0.6893
21 Ohio state 0.6857
22 Mississippi st 0.6673
23 Virginia Tech 0.6659
24 Texas Tech 0.6616
25 Iowa st 0.6555
26 Texas 0.6519
27 South Carolina 0.6371
28 Florida 0.6255
29 North Carolina 0.6218
30 UCLA 0.6186
31 North Carolina St 0.6148
32 Oregon st 0.6132
33 Miami FL 0.6121
34 Air Force 0.6077
35 Southern Cal 0.6076
36 Florida st 0.6043
37 Central Florida 0.6041
38 Michigan 0.5996
39 Penn state 0.5844
40 Nevada 0.5836
41 East Carolina 0.5716
42 Illinois 0.5632
43 California 0.5623
44 Clemson 0.5594
45 Temple 0.5579
46 Washington 0.5556
47 Hawai`i 0.5518
48 San Diego st 0.5427
49 Kentucky 0.5407
50 Navy 0.5375
51 Maryland 0.5360
52 Pittsburgh 0.5265
53 Northern Illinois 0.5258
54 West Virginia 0.5197
55 Georgia Tech 0.5133
56 Mississippi 0.5069
57 Georgia 0.5062
58 Northwestern 0.5059
59 Brigham Young 0.5022
60 Fresno st 0.4978
61 Arizona St 0.4976
62 Colorado 0.4923
63 Tennessee 0.4900
64 South Florida 0.4888
65 Notre Dame 0.4880
66 Syracuse 0.4861
67 Tulsa 0.4860
68 Indiana 0.4742
69 Kansas 0.4641
70 Toledo 0.4628
71 Southern Miss 0.4610
72 Boston College 0.4607
73 Louisville 0.4604
74 Houston 0.4586
75 Army 0.4467
76 Purdue 0.4424
77 Virginia 0.4386
78 Ohio U. 0.4372
79 Connecticut 0.4356
80 Cincinnati 0.4263
81 Duke 0.4247
82 Vanderbilt 0.4173
83 Miami OH 0.4157
84 Utah st 0.4113
85 SMU 0.4111
86 Rutgers 0.3994
87 Colorado st 0.3884
88 Marshall 0.3825
89 Troy 0.3781
90 Minnesota 0.3780
91 Louisiana Tech 0.3746
92 Wake Forest 0.3731
93 Idaho 0.3723
94 Kent st 0.3697
95 Washington st 0.3563
96 Wyoming 0.3516
97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3412
98 Buffalo 0.3401
99 Tulane 0.3308
100 UNLV 0.3294
101 San José St 0.3243
102 UTEP 0.3236
103 Rice 0.3221
104 Arkansas St 0.3214
105 Florida Int'l 0.3131
106 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3104
107 Bowling Green 0.3009
108 Western Michigan 0.2854
109 New Mexico st 0.2714
110 Florida Atlantic 0.2637
111 Middle Tennessee St 0.2608
112 Central Michigan 0.2607
113 Memphis 0.2597
114 New Mexico 0.2493
115 aa 0.2419
116 Ball St 0.2279
117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2190
118 Eastern Michigan 0.2187
119 North Texas 0.1851
120 Akron 0.1809
121 Western Kentucky 0.1757
1 Auburn 0.7904
2 TCU 0.7827
3 Nebraska 0.7802
4 Oklahoma st 0.7743
5 LSU 0.7604
6 Stanford 0.7555
7 Oregon 0.7518
8 Oklahoma 0.7356
9 Boise st 0.7316
10 Kansas st 0.7132
11 Missouri 0.7119
12 Arizona 0.7050
13 Alabama 0.7027
14 Iowa 0.7023
15 Arkansas 0.7006
16 Utah 0.6987
17 Wisconsin 0.6973
18 Texas A&M 0.6931
19 Baylor 0.6904
20 Michigan st 0.6893
21 Ohio state 0.6857
22 Mississippi st 0.6673
23 Virginia Tech 0.6659
24 Texas Tech 0.6616
25 Iowa st 0.6555
26 Texas 0.6519
27 South Carolina 0.6371
28 Florida 0.6255
29 North Carolina 0.6218
30 UCLA 0.6186
31 North Carolina St 0.6148
32 Oregon st 0.6132
33 Miami FL 0.6121
34 Air Force 0.6077
35 Southern Cal 0.6076
36 Florida st 0.6043
37 Central Florida 0.6041
38 Michigan 0.5996
39 Penn state 0.5844
40 Nevada 0.5836
41 East Carolina 0.5716
42 Illinois 0.5632
43 California 0.5623
44 Clemson 0.5594
45 Temple 0.5579
46 Washington 0.5556
47 Hawai`i 0.5518
48 San Diego st 0.5427
49 Kentucky 0.5407
50 Navy 0.5375
51 Maryland 0.5360
52 Pittsburgh 0.5265
53 Northern Illinois 0.5258
54 West Virginia 0.5197
55 Georgia Tech 0.5133
56 Mississippi 0.5069
57 Georgia 0.5062
58 Northwestern 0.5059
59 Brigham Young 0.5022
60 Fresno st 0.4978
61 Arizona St 0.4976
62 Colorado 0.4923
63 Tennessee 0.4900
64 South Florida 0.4888
65 Notre Dame 0.4880
66 Syracuse 0.4861
67 Tulsa 0.4860
68 Indiana 0.4742
69 Kansas 0.4641
70 Toledo 0.4628
71 Southern Miss 0.4610
72 Boston College 0.4607
73 Louisville 0.4604
74 Houston 0.4586
75 Army 0.4467
76 Purdue 0.4424
77 Virginia 0.4386
78 Ohio U. 0.4372
79 Connecticut 0.4356
80 Cincinnati 0.4263
81 Duke 0.4247
82 Vanderbilt 0.4173
83 Miami OH 0.4157
84 Utah st 0.4113
85 SMU 0.4111
86 Rutgers 0.3994
87 Colorado st 0.3884
88 Marshall 0.3825
89 Troy 0.3781
90 Minnesota 0.3780
91 Louisiana Tech 0.3746
92 Wake Forest 0.3731
93 Idaho 0.3723
94 Kent st 0.3697
95 Washington st 0.3563
96 Wyoming 0.3516
97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3412
98 Buffalo 0.3401
99 Tulane 0.3308
100 UNLV 0.3294
101 San José St 0.3243
102 UTEP 0.3236
103 Rice 0.3221
104 Arkansas St 0.3214
105 Florida Int'l 0.3131
106 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3104
107 Bowling Green 0.3009
108 Western Michigan 0.2854
109 New Mexico st 0.2714
110 Florida Atlantic 0.2637
111 Middle Tennessee St 0.2608
112 Central Michigan 0.2607
113 Memphis 0.2597
114 New Mexico 0.2493
115 aa 0.2419
116 Ball St 0.2279
117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2190
118 Eastern Michigan 0.2187
119 North Texas 0.1851
120 Akron 0.1809
121 Western Kentucky 0.1757
Sunday, 7 November 2010
Week 10 rankings
TCU make it to the top of the rankings following their demolition of Utah.
1 TCU 0.7420
2 Auburn 0.7402
3 Oklahoma 0.7393
4 Nebraska 0.7287
5 Missouri 0.7170
6 LSU 0.6926
7 Arizona 0.6907
8 Oregon 0.6866
9 Boise st 0.6848
10 Stanford 0.6829
11 Oklahoma st 0.6794
12 Iowa 0.6768
13 Michigan st 0.6737
14 Wisconsin 0.6729
15 Utah 0.6689
16 Baylor 0.6566
17 Alabama 0.6535
18 Ohio state 0.6501
19 Mississippi st 0.6481
20 Iowa st 0.6347
21 North Carolina St 0.6312
22 Kansas st 0.6293
23 Texas 0.6271
24 Virginia Tech 0.6244
25 Arkansas 0.6209
26 Oregon st 0.6207
27 Florida st 0.6144
28 South Carolina 0.6081
29 Florida 0.5974
30 Texas Tech 0.5941
31 Central Florida 0.5887
32 East Carolina 0.5886
33 Southern Cal 0.5864
34 Texas A&M 0.5854
35 Air Force 0.5814
36 Nevada 0.5805
37 Illinois 0.5799
38 Miami FL 0.5771
39 North Carolina 0.5694
40 Michigan 0.5667
41 Penn state 0.5639
42 Washington 0.5623
43 Hawai`i 0.5614
44 UCLA 0.5585
45 California 0.5554
46 Temple 0.5457
47 San Diego st 0.5369
48 Northern Illinois 0.5363
49 Colorado 0.5256
50 Maryland 0.5236
51 Pittsburgh 0.5221
52 Northwestern 0.5219
53 Brigham Young 0.5214
54 Kentucky 0.5210
55 Arizona St 0.5163
56 Syracuse 0.5161
57 Georgia 0.5131
58 Tulsa 0.5075
59 Navy 0.5067
60 Georgia Tech 0.5063
61 Toledo 0.5061
62 Clemson 0.5058
63 West Virginia 0.5029
64 Mississippi 0.4922
65 Fresno st 0.4916
66 Notre Dame 0.4906
67 Indiana 0.4889
68 SMU 0.4857
69 Tennessee 0.4816
70 South Florida 0.4804
71 Houston 0.4768
72 Virginia 0.4761
73 Army 0.4666
74 Purdue 0.4662
75 Southern Miss 0.4604
76 Boston College 0.4598
77 Wyoming 0.4523
78 Cincinnati 0.4522
79 Ohio U. 0.4441
80 Louisville 0.4432
81 Connecticut 0.4428
82 Rutgers 0.4413
83 Kansas 0.4341
84 Miami OH 0.4324
85 Utah st 0.4303
86 Vanderbilt 0.4238
87 Troy 0.4176
88 Duke 0.4164
89 Colorado st 0.4144
90 Louisiana Tech 0.4100
91 Wake Forest 0.4075
92 Kent st 0.4020
93 Minnesota 0.3992
94 Washington st 0.3992
95 Idaho 0.3990
96 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3881
97 Tulane 0.3868
98 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3832
99 Western Michigan 0.3813
100 Buffalo 0.3795
101 Rice 0.3743
102 Marshall 0.3656
103 UNLV 0.3617
104 San José St 0.3481
105 Arkansas St 0.3421
106 Middle Tennessee St 0.3314
107 Florida Int'l 0.3234
108 UTEP 0.3224
109 Bowling Green 0.3176
110 New Mexico st 0.3042
111 Memphis 0.3004
112 Florida Atlantic 0.2875
113 aa 0.2860
114 Central Michigan 0.2834
115 Ball St 0.2715
116 Akron 0.2682
117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2678
118 New Mexico 0.2539
119 Eastern Michigan 0.2524
120 Western Kentucky 0.2384
121 North Texas 0.2301
1 TCU 0.7420
2 Auburn 0.7402
3 Oklahoma 0.7393
4 Nebraska 0.7287
5 Missouri 0.7170
6 LSU 0.6926
7 Arizona 0.6907
8 Oregon 0.6866
9 Boise st 0.6848
10 Stanford 0.6829
11 Oklahoma st 0.6794
12 Iowa 0.6768
13 Michigan st 0.6737
14 Wisconsin 0.6729
15 Utah 0.6689
16 Baylor 0.6566
17 Alabama 0.6535
18 Ohio state 0.6501
19 Mississippi st 0.6481
20 Iowa st 0.6347
21 North Carolina St 0.6312
22 Kansas st 0.6293
23 Texas 0.6271
24 Virginia Tech 0.6244
25 Arkansas 0.6209
26 Oregon st 0.6207
27 Florida st 0.6144
28 South Carolina 0.6081
29 Florida 0.5974
30 Texas Tech 0.5941
31 Central Florida 0.5887
32 East Carolina 0.5886
33 Southern Cal 0.5864
34 Texas A&M 0.5854
35 Air Force 0.5814
36 Nevada 0.5805
37 Illinois 0.5799
38 Miami FL 0.5771
39 North Carolina 0.5694
40 Michigan 0.5667
41 Penn state 0.5639
42 Washington 0.5623
43 Hawai`i 0.5614
44 UCLA 0.5585
45 California 0.5554
46 Temple 0.5457
47 San Diego st 0.5369
48 Northern Illinois 0.5363
49 Colorado 0.5256
50 Maryland 0.5236
51 Pittsburgh 0.5221
52 Northwestern 0.5219
53 Brigham Young 0.5214
54 Kentucky 0.5210
55 Arizona St 0.5163
56 Syracuse 0.5161
57 Georgia 0.5131
58 Tulsa 0.5075
59 Navy 0.5067
60 Georgia Tech 0.5063
61 Toledo 0.5061
62 Clemson 0.5058
63 West Virginia 0.5029
64 Mississippi 0.4922
65 Fresno st 0.4916
66 Notre Dame 0.4906
67 Indiana 0.4889
68 SMU 0.4857
69 Tennessee 0.4816
70 South Florida 0.4804
71 Houston 0.4768
72 Virginia 0.4761
73 Army 0.4666
74 Purdue 0.4662
75 Southern Miss 0.4604
76 Boston College 0.4598
77 Wyoming 0.4523
78 Cincinnati 0.4522
79 Ohio U. 0.4441
80 Louisville 0.4432
81 Connecticut 0.4428
82 Rutgers 0.4413
83 Kansas 0.4341
84 Miami OH 0.4324
85 Utah st 0.4303
86 Vanderbilt 0.4238
87 Troy 0.4176
88 Duke 0.4164
89 Colorado st 0.4144
90 Louisiana Tech 0.4100
91 Wake Forest 0.4075
92 Kent st 0.4020
93 Minnesota 0.3992
94 Washington st 0.3992
95 Idaho 0.3990
96 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3881
97 Tulane 0.3868
98 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3832
99 Western Michigan 0.3813
100 Buffalo 0.3795
101 Rice 0.3743
102 Marshall 0.3656
103 UNLV 0.3617
104 San José St 0.3481
105 Arkansas St 0.3421
106 Middle Tennessee St 0.3314
107 Florida Int'l 0.3234
108 UTEP 0.3224
109 Bowling Green 0.3176
110 New Mexico st 0.3042
111 Memphis 0.3004
112 Florida Atlantic 0.2875
113 aa 0.2860
114 Central Michigan 0.2834
115 Ball St 0.2715
116 Akron 0.2682
117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2678
118 New Mexico 0.2539
119 Eastern Michigan 0.2524
120 Western Kentucky 0.2384
121 North Texas 0.2301
Sunday, 31 October 2010
Week 9 rankings
Oklahoma and Auburn remain in the top two slots.
1 Oklahoma 0.7497
2 Auburn 0.7456
3 TCU 0.7439
4 Nebraska 0.7349
5 Missouri 0.7259
6 Arizona 0.6997
7 LSU 0.6964
8 Oregon 0.6941
9 Boise st 0.6901
10 Stanford 0.6888
11 Oklahoma st 0.6845
12 Iowa 0.6826
13 Wisconsin 0.6785
14 Michigan st 0.6784
15 Utah 0.6774
16 Baylor 0.6646
17 Alabama 0.6598
18 Ohio state 0.6537
19 Mississippi st 0.6520
20 Iowa st 0.6424
21 North Carolina St 0.6378
22 Texas 0.6351
23 Kansas st 0.6337
24 Virginia Tech 0.6328
25 Oregon st 0.6287
26 Arkansas 0.6239
27 Florida st 0.6216
28 South Carolina 0.6156
29 Florida 0.6000
30 Texas Tech 0.5975
31 East Carolina 0.5941
32 Central Florida 0.5905
33 Southern Cal 0.5888
34 Texas A&M 0.5874
35 Illinois 0.5839
36 Nevada 0.5831
37 Air Force 0.5827
38 Miami FL 0.5790
39 North Carolina 0.5698
40 Washington 0.5667
41 Michigan 0.5666
42 Hawai`i 0.5649
43 Penn state 0.5624
44 UCLA 0.5610
45 California 0.5580
46 Temple 0.5450
47 Northern Illinois 0.5369
48 San Diego st 0.5367
49 Kentucky 0.5292
50 Colorado 0.5291
51 Maryland 0.5241
52 Northwestern 0.5234
53 Pittsburgh 0.5216
54 Brigham Young 0.5214
55 Arizona St 0.5192
56 Syracuse 0.5172
57 Georgia 0.5141
58 Georgia Tech 0.5080
59 Tulsa 0.5050
60 Toledo 0.5049
61 Clemson 0.5047
62 Navy 0.5033
63 West Virginia 0.5010
64 Mississippi 0.4940
65 Notre Dame 0.4892
66 Fresno st 0.4890
67 Indiana 0.4884
68 SMU 0.4849
69 Tennessee 0.4812
70 Virginia 0.4773
71 South Florida 0.4759
72 Houston 0.4751
73 Army 0.4655
74 Purdue 0.4645
75 Boston College 0.4571
76 Southern Miss 0.4541
77 Wyoming 0.4520
78 Cincinnati 0.4491
79 Louisville 0.4407
80 Connecticut 0.4399
81 Rutgers 0.4394
82 Ohio U. 0.4372
83 Kansas 0.4336
84 Miami OH 0.4273
85 Utah st 0.4258
86 Vanderbilt 0.4225
87 Duke 0.4115
88 Colorado st 0.4113
89 Troy 0.4106
90 Louisiana Tech 0.4069
91 Wake Forest 0.4052
92 Minnesota 0.3993
93 Kent st 0.3987
94 Washington st 0.3954
95 Idaho 0.3941
96 Tulane 0.3836
97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3830
98 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3778
99 Western Michigan 0.3775
100 Buffalo 0.3757
101 Rice 0.3709
102 UNLV 0.3567
103 Marshall 0.3557
104 San José St 0.3442
105 Arkansas St 0.3332
106 Middle Tennessee St 0.3262
107 UTEP 0.3129
108 Florida Int'l 0.3121
109 Bowling Green 0.3095
110 New Mexico st 0.2979
111 aa 0.2957
112 Memphis 0.2940
113 Florida Atlantic 0.2761
114 Central Michigan 0.2726
115 Akron 0.2666
116 Ball St 0.2626
117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2608
118 Eastern Michigan 0.2441
119 New Mexico 0.2428
120 Western Kentucky 0.2312
121 North Texas 0.2219
1 Oklahoma 0.7497
2 Auburn 0.7456
3 TCU 0.7439
4 Nebraska 0.7349
5 Missouri 0.7259
6 Arizona 0.6997
7 LSU 0.6964
8 Oregon 0.6941
9 Boise st 0.6901
10 Stanford 0.6888
11 Oklahoma st 0.6845
12 Iowa 0.6826
13 Wisconsin 0.6785
14 Michigan st 0.6784
15 Utah 0.6774
16 Baylor 0.6646
17 Alabama 0.6598
18 Ohio state 0.6537
19 Mississippi st 0.6520
20 Iowa st 0.6424
21 North Carolina St 0.6378
22 Texas 0.6351
23 Kansas st 0.6337
24 Virginia Tech 0.6328
25 Oregon st 0.6287
26 Arkansas 0.6239
27 Florida st 0.6216
28 South Carolina 0.6156
29 Florida 0.6000
30 Texas Tech 0.5975
31 East Carolina 0.5941
32 Central Florida 0.5905
33 Southern Cal 0.5888
34 Texas A&M 0.5874
35 Illinois 0.5839
36 Nevada 0.5831
37 Air Force 0.5827
38 Miami FL 0.5790
39 North Carolina 0.5698
40 Washington 0.5667
41 Michigan 0.5666
42 Hawai`i 0.5649
43 Penn state 0.5624
44 UCLA 0.5610
45 California 0.5580
46 Temple 0.5450
47 Northern Illinois 0.5369
48 San Diego st 0.5367
49 Kentucky 0.5292
50 Colorado 0.5291
51 Maryland 0.5241
52 Northwestern 0.5234
53 Pittsburgh 0.5216
54 Brigham Young 0.5214
55 Arizona St 0.5192
56 Syracuse 0.5172
57 Georgia 0.5141
58 Georgia Tech 0.5080
59 Tulsa 0.5050
60 Toledo 0.5049
61 Clemson 0.5047
62 Navy 0.5033
63 West Virginia 0.5010
64 Mississippi 0.4940
65 Notre Dame 0.4892
66 Fresno st 0.4890
67 Indiana 0.4884
68 SMU 0.4849
69 Tennessee 0.4812
70 Virginia 0.4773
71 South Florida 0.4759
72 Houston 0.4751
73 Army 0.4655
74 Purdue 0.4645
75 Boston College 0.4571
76 Southern Miss 0.4541
77 Wyoming 0.4520
78 Cincinnati 0.4491
79 Louisville 0.4407
80 Connecticut 0.4399
81 Rutgers 0.4394
82 Ohio U. 0.4372
83 Kansas 0.4336
84 Miami OH 0.4273
85 Utah st 0.4258
86 Vanderbilt 0.4225
87 Duke 0.4115
88 Colorado st 0.4113
89 Troy 0.4106
90 Louisiana Tech 0.4069
91 Wake Forest 0.4052
92 Minnesota 0.3993
93 Kent st 0.3987
94 Washington st 0.3954
95 Idaho 0.3941
96 Tulane 0.3836
97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3830
98 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3778
99 Western Michigan 0.3775
100 Buffalo 0.3757
101 Rice 0.3709
102 UNLV 0.3567
103 Marshall 0.3557
104 San José St 0.3442
105 Arkansas St 0.3332
106 Middle Tennessee St 0.3262
107 UTEP 0.3129
108 Florida Int'l 0.3121
109 Bowling Green 0.3095
110 New Mexico st 0.2979
111 aa 0.2957
112 Memphis 0.2940
113 Florida Atlantic 0.2761
114 Central Michigan 0.2726
115 Akron 0.2666
116 Ball St 0.2626
117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2608
118 Eastern Michigan 0.2441
119 New Mexico 0.2428
120 Western Kentucky 0.2312
121 North Texas 0.2219
Sunday, 24 October 2010
Week 8 rankings
Here they are.
Despite Oklahomas loss to Missouri it only drops one place and it is only narrowly behind Auburn. The reason for this is that a loss to an undefeated team does very little damage to a team.
It will be interesting to see what the other systems say.
Alabama's victory over Tennessee (no.70) doesn't help it much neither does Oregon beating No.50 UCLA also doesnt help much.
Boise's weak schedule is still hurting it although being on a bye week also doesn't help.
1 Auburn 0.7131
2 Oklahoma 0.7130
3 Missouri 0.7083
4 TCU 0.7016
5 LSU 0.6664
6 Michigan st 0.6656
7 Wisconsin 0.6457
8 Nebraska 0.6416
9 Arizona 0.6342
10 Boise st 0.6339
11 Oregon 0.6317
12 Stanford 0.6283
13 Ohio state 0.6222
14 Utah 0.6216
15 Alabama 0.6160
16 Baylor 0.6114
17 Iowa st 0.6104
18 Kansas st 0.6097
19 Mississippi st 0.6090
20 Texas 0.6081
21 Oklahoma st 0.6054
22 Florida st 0.6047
23 Iowa 0.6012
24 Miami FL 0.5952
25 South Carolina 0.5942
26 Arkansas 0.5865
27 Texas Tech 0.5842
28 Air Force 0.5768
29 Virginia Tech 0.5711
30 Nevada 0.5709
31 Oregon st 0.5676
32 Southern Cal 0.5671
33 California 0.5659
34 East Carolina 0.5657
35 Florida 0.5652
36 North Carolina St 0.5627
37 Hawai`i 0.5588
38 Michigan 0.5580
39 Illinois 0.5568
40 North Carolina 0.5564
41 UCLA 0.5553
42 Navy 0.5499
43 Washington 0.5416
44 Colorado 0.5399
45 Clemson 0.5391
46 West Virginia 0.5347
47 San Diego st 0.5319
48 Pittsburgh 0.5303
49 Notre Dame 0.5302
50 Texas A&M 0.5295
51 Maryland 0.5270
52 Central Florida 0.5267
53 Brigham Young 0.5259
54 Northwestern 0.5248
55 Northern Illinois 0.5247
56 Southern Miss 0.5240
57 Kentucky 0.5210
58 Georgia 0.5191
59 Penn state 0.5179
60 Temple 0.5173
61 Arizona St 0.5137
62 Georgia Tech 0.5108
63 Indiana 0.5093
64 Syracuse 0.5059
65 Toledo 0.5004
66 Mississippi 0.4982
67 Purdue 0.4927
68 Fresno st 0.4902
69 South Florida 0.4892
70 Tennessee 0.4790
71 Tulsa 0.4783
72 SMU 0.4764
73 Cincinnati 0.4726
74 Houston 0.4718
75 Wyoming 0.4690
76 Kansas 0.4644
77 Louisiana Tech 0.4643
78 Louisville 0.4586
79 Boston College 0.4547
80 Utah st 0.4541
81 Troy 0.4520
82 Army 0.4504
83 Rutgers 0.4504
84 Wake Forest 0.4469
85 Vanderbilt 0.4423
86 Virginia 0.4418
87 Miami OH 0.4379
88 Ohio U. 0.4338
89 Idaho 0.4294
90 Florida Int'l 0.4294
91 San José St 0.4293
92 Western Michigan 0.4267
93 Connecticut 0.4260
94 Colorado st 0.4220
95 Washington st 0.4199
96 Tulane 0.4155
97 Minnesota 0.4141
98 Buffalo 0.4123
99 Kent st 0.4066
100 Duke 0.4032
101 Rice 0.4005
102 UNLV 0.3912
103 UTEP 0.3784
104 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3771
105 Marshall 0.3767
106 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3732
107 Arkansas St 0.3698
108 Memphis 0.3664
109 Middle Tennessee St 0.3615
110 Central Michigan 0.3562
111 Western Kentucky 0.3512
112 aa 0.3496
113 New Mexico st 0.3342
114 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.3332
115 Bowling Green 0.3275
116 Ball St 0.3211
117 Akron 0.3020
118 New Mexico 0.3005
119 Florida Atlantic 0.2957
120 Eastern Michigan 0.2920
121 North Texas 0.2721
Despite Oklahomas loss to Missouri it only drops one place and it is only narrowly behind Auburn. The reason for this is that a loss to an undefeated team does very little damage to a team.
It will be interesting to see what the other systems say.
Alabama's victory over Tennessee (no.70) doesn't help it much neither does Oregon beating No.50 UCLA also doesnt help much.
Boise's weak schedule is still hurting it although being on a bye week also doesn't help.
1 Auburn 0.7131
2 Oklahoma 0.7130
3 Missouri 0.7083
4 TCU 0.7016
5 LSU 0.6664
6 Michigan st 0.6656
7 Wisconsin 0.6457
8 Nebraska 0.6416
9 Arizona 0.6342
10 Boise st 0.6339
11 Oregon 0.6317
12 Stanford 0.6283
13 Ohio state 0.6222
14 Utah 0.6216
15 Alabama 0.6160
16 Baylor 0.6114
17 Iowa st 0.6104
18 Kansas st 0.6097
19 Mississippi st 0.6090
20 Texas 0.6081
21 Oklahoma st 0.6054
22 Florida st 0.6047
23 Iowa 0.6012
24 Miami FL 0.5952
25 South Carolina 0.5942
26 Arkansas 0.5865
27 Texas Tech 0.5842
28 Air Force 0.5768
29 Virginia Tech 0.5711
30 Nevada 0.5709
31 Oregon st 0.5676
32 Southern Cal 0.5671
33 California 0.5659
34 East Carolina 0.5657
35 Florida 0.5652
36 North Carolina St 0.5627
37 Hawai`i 0.5588
38 Michigan 0.5580
39 Illinois 0.5568
40 North Carolina 0.5564
41 UCLA 0.5553
42 Navy 0.5499
43 Washington 0.5416
44 Colorado 0.5399
45 Clemson 0.5391
46 West Virginia 0.5347
47 San Diego st 0.5319
48 Pittsburgh 0.5303
49 Notre Dame 0.5302
50 Texas A&M 0.5295
51 Maryland 0.5270
52 Central Florida 0.5267
53 Brigham Young 0.5259
54 Northwestern 0.5248
55 Northern Illinois 0.5247
56 Southern Miss 0.5240
57 Kentucky 0.5210
58 Georgia 0.5191
59 Penn state 0.5179
60 Temple 0.5173
61 Arizona St 0.5137
62 Georgia Tech 0.5108
63 Indiana 0.5093
64 Syracuse 0.5059
65 Toledo 0.5004
66 Mississippi 0.4982
67 Purdue 0.4927
68 Fresno st 0.4902
69 South Florida 0.4892
70 Tennessee 0.4790
71 Tulsa 0.4783
72 SMU 0.4764
73 Cincinnati 0.4726
74 Houston 0.4718
75 Wyoming 0.4690
76 Kansas 0.4644
77 Louisiana Tech 0.4643
78 Louisville 0.4586
79 Boston College 0.4547
80 Utah st 0.4541
81 Troy 0.4520
82 Army 0.4504
83 Rutgers 0.4504
84 Wake Forest 0.4469
85 Vanderbilt 0.4423
86 Virginia 0.4418
87 Miami OH 0.4379
88 Ohio U. 0.4338
89 Idaho 0.4294
90 Florida Int'l 0.4294
91 San José St 0.4293
92 Western Michigan 0.4267
93 Connecticut 0.4260
94 Colorado st 0.4220
95 Washington st 0.4199
96 Tulane 0.4155
97 Minnesota 0.4141
98 Buffalo 0.4123
99 Kent st 0.4066
100 Duke 0.4032
101 Rice 0.4005
102 UNLV 0.3912
103 UTEP 0.3784
104 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3771
105 Marshall 0.3767
106 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3732
107 Arkansas St 0.3698
108 Memphis 0.3664
109 Middle Tennessee St 0.3615
110 Central Michigan 0.3562
111 Western Kentucky 0.3512
112 aa 0.3496
113 New Mexico st 0.3342
114 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.3332
115 Bowling Green 0.3275
116 Ball St 0.3211
117 Akron 0.3020
118 New Mexico 0.3005
119 Florida Atlantic 0.2957
120 Eastern Michigan 0.2920
121 North Texas 0.2721
Sunday, 17 October 2010
Week 7 rankings
Here are the rankings.
Oklahoma are now number 1 with LSU in 2nd place. The rating is the averaged probability that the team in question is better than each of the other 120 teams. The difference between the top and bottom teams will increase as the season progresses as there will be more data to link and therefore differentiate between the teams as every team starts as .500 at the start of the season.
FCS teams are represented by a single super-team termed "aa".
Rank Team Rating
1 Oklahoma 0.645
2 LSU 0.634
3 TCU 0.631
4 Auburn 0.628
5 Michigan st 0.611
6 Boise st 0.606
7 Missouri 0.600
8 Stanford 0.593
9 Oregon 0.580
10 Oklahoma st 0.579
11 Kansas st 0.579
12 Alabama 0.579
13 Nebraska 0.577
14 Texas 0.571
15 Mississippi st 0.569
16 Arizona 0.569
17 South Carolina 0.568
18 Wisconsin 0.568
19 Iowa 0.561
20 Utah 0.560
21 Ohio state 0.559
22 Florida st 0.556
23 Virginia Tech 0.556
24 Baylor 0.553
25 East Carolina 0.552
26 Air Force 0.551
27 North Carolina 0.549
28 North Carolina St 0.549
29 Nevada 0.547
30 Florida 0.546
31 Michigan 0.545
32 Southern Cal 0.544
33 West Virginia 0.541
34 Hawai`i 0.541
35 Oregon st 0.538
36 Iowa st 0.537
37 Texas Tech 0.536
38 Arkansas 0.534
39 Colorado 0.531
40 Illinois 0.531
41 UCLA 0.530
42 California 0.529
43 Notre Dame 0.528
44 Washington 0.527
45 Northwestern 0.527
46 Kentucky 0.524
47 Miami FL 0.523
48 Navy 0.522
49 Southern Miss 0.522
50 San Diego st 0.521
51 Georgia Tech 0.520
52 Arizona St 0.519
53 Northern Illinois 0.518
54 Maryland 0.517
55 Central Florida 0.517
56 SMU 0.512
57 Texas A&M 0.512
58 Temple 0.510
59 Brigham Young 0.507
60 Purdue 0.507
61 Clemson 0.507
62 Toledo 0.506
63 Indiana 0.506
64 Penn state 0.506
65 Mississippi 0.502
66 Pittsburgh 0.500
67 Georgia 0.498
68 Wyoming 0.497
69 Cincinnati 0.497
70 Fresno st 0.496
71 Tulsa 0.495
72 Miami OH 0.490
73 Tennessee 0.488
74 Kansas 0.482
75 Rutgers 0.482
76 South Florida 0.481
77 Boston College 0.479
78 Syracuse 0.478
79 Connecticut 0.477
80 Troy 0.477
81 Vanderbilt 0.474
82 Houston 0.472
83 Louisiana Tech 0.471
84 Utah st 0.470
85 Louisville 0.468
86 Army 0.466
87 Wake Forest 0.464
88 San José St 0.461
89 Virginia 0.461
90 Louisiana-Monroe 0.460
91 Colorado st 0.457
92 Ohio U. 0.453
93 Buffalo 0.451
94 UTEP 0.450
95 Florida Int'l 0.449
96 Idaho 0.449
97 Western Michigan 0.448
98 Washington st 0.446
99 Rice 0.446
100 Kent st 0.440
101 Minnesota 0.438
102 Tulane 0.434
103 Alabama-Birmingham 0.430
104 Duke 0.428
105 Marshall 0.428
106 UNLV 0.426
107 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.418
108 Arkansas St 0.416
109 Central Michigan 0.414
110 Memphis 0.413
111 New Mexico st 0.410
112 aa 0.402
113 Middle Tennessee St 0.400
114 Bowling Green 0.398
115 Western Kentucky 0.394
116 Florida Atlantic 0.393
117 Ball St 0.385
118 New Mexico 0.373
119 Eastern Michigan 0.371
120 Akron 0.368
121 North Texas 0.337
Oklahoma are now number 1 with LSU in 2nd place. The rating is the averaged probability that the team in question is better than each of the other 120 teams. The difference between the top and bottom teams will increase as the season progresses as there will be more data to link and therefore differentiate between the teams as every team starts as .500 at the start of the season.
FCS teams are represented by a single super-team termed "aa".
Rank Team Rating
1 Oklahoma 0.645
2 LSU 0.634
3 TCU 0.631
4 Auburn 0.628
5 Michigan st 0.611
6 Boise st 0.606
7 Missouri 0.600
8 Stanford 0.593
9 Oregon 0.580
10 Oklahoma st 0.579
11 Kansas st 0.579
12 Alabama 0.579
13 Nebraska 0.577
14 Texas 0.571
15 Mississippi st 0.569
16 Arizona 0.569
17 South Carolina 0.568
18 Wisconsin 0.568
19 Iowa 0.561
20 Utah 0.560
21 Ohio state 0.559
22 Florida st 0.556
23 Virginia Tech 0.556
24 Baylor 0.553
25 East Carolina 0.552
26 Air Force 0.551
27 North Carolina 0.549
28 North Carolina St 0.549
29 Nevada 0.547
30 Florida 0.546
31 Michigan 0.545
32 Southern Cal 0.544
33 West Virginia 0.541
34 Hawai`i 0.541
35 Oregon st 0.538
36 Iowa st 0.537
37 Texas Tech 0.536
38 Arkansas 0.534
39 Colorado 0.531
40 Illinois 0.531
41 UCLA 0.530
42 California 0.529
43 Notre Dame 0.528
44 Washington 0.527
45 Northwestern 0.527
46 Kentucky 0.524
47 Miami FL 0.523
48 Navy 0.522
49 Southern Miss 0.522
50 San Diego st 0.521
51 Georgia Tech 0.520
52 Arizona St 0.519
53 Northern Illinois 0.518
54 Maryland 0.517
55 Central Florida 0.517
56 SMU 0.512
57 Texas A&M 0.512
58 Temple 0.510
59 Brigham Young 0.507
60 Purdue 0.507
61 Clemson 0.507
62 Toledo 0.506
63 Indiana 0.506
64 Penn state 0.506
65 Mississippi 0.502
66 Pittsburgh 0.500
67 Georgia 0.498
68 Wyoming 0.497
69 Cincinnati 0.497
70 Fresno st 0.496
71 Tulsa 0.495
72 Miami OH 0.490
73 Tennessee 0.488
74 Kansas 0.482
75 Rutgers 0.482
76 South Florida 0.481
77 Boston College 0.479
78 Syracuse 0.478
79 Connecticut 0.477
80 Troy 0.477
81 Vanderbilt 0.474
82 Houston 0.472
83 Louisiana Tech 0.471
84 Utah st 0.470
85 Louisville 0.468
86 Army 0.466
87 Wake Forest 0.464
88 San José St 0.461
89 Virginia 0.461
90 Louisiana-Monroe 0.460
91 Colorado st 0.457
92 Ohio U. 0.453
93 Buffalo 0.451
94 UTEP 0.450
95 Florida Int'l 0.449
96 Idaho 0.449
97 Western Michigan 0.448
98 Washington st 0.446
99 Rice 0.446
100 Kent st 0.440
101 Minnesota 0.438
102 Tulane 0.434
103 Alabama-Birmingham 0.430
104 Duke 0.428
105 Marshall 0.428
106 UNLV 0.426
107 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.418
108 Arkansas St 0.416
109 Central Michigan 0.414
110 Memphis 0.413
111 New Mexico st 0.410
112 aa 0.402
113 Middle Tennessee St 0.400
114 Bowling Green 0.398
115 Western Kentucky 0.394
116 Florida Atlantic 0.393
117 Ball St 0.385
118 New Mexico 0.373
119 Eastern Michigan 0.371
120 Akron 0.368
121 North Texas 0.337
Friday, 15 October 2010
Corrected week 6 rankings
I have adjusted how the ranking system treats games against FCS teams as initially they were counting for far more than a game against an FBS team.
The weighting given to these games when calculating secondary wins and losses is now equal to the average number of games played by FBS teams divided by the number of games FCS have played. So as the average number of games played is just under 6 but 81 games against FCS teams have been played the weighting is ~6/81 =.07. Or in other words my original system was making a win or loss against a FCS count 14 times as much as an ordinary game when secondary and higher level wins and losses are being calculated.
This has dramatically changed some teams rankings as Virginia Tech have jumped from 112 to 25th compared with the Massey consensus of 24th. Nth Carolina State from 66th to 23rd (Massey Consensus 25th)
Boise have jumped to second, TCU have dropped to third and LSU are now first.
The correlation to the massey consensus is now a respectable .961 which is 33rd best out of the 119 systems whereas previously I was in last place when you excluded the polls. So I think this adjustment has corrected the large and difficult to justify discrepencies in the original version.
So hopefully next week my rankings will not annoy Josh as much.
Looking at the correlation between my rankings and the others the closest correlation is to the rankings of Hatch and of Wobus (correlation of 0.98). Although these are two quite different systems and my system isn't like either although it may be closer to Wobus.
JMC
The weighting given to these games when calculating secondary wins and losses is now equal to the average number of games played by FBS teams divided by the number of games FCS have played. So as the average number of games played is just under 6 but 81 games against FCS teams have been played the weighting is ~6/81 =.07. Or in other words my original system was making a win or loss against a FCS count 14 times as much as an ordinary game when secondary and higher level wins and losses are being calculated.
This has dramatically changed some teams rankings as Virginia Tech have jumped from 112 to 25th compared with the Massey consensus of 24th. Nth Carolina State from 66th to 23rd (Massey Consensus 25th)
Boise have jumped to second, TCU have dropped to third and LSU are now first.
The correlation to the massey consensus is now a respectable .961 which is 33rd best out of the 119 systems whereas previously I was in last place when you excluded the polls. So I think this adjustment has corrected the large and difficult to justify discrepencies in the original version.
So hopefully next week my rankings will not annoy Josh as much.
Looking at the correlation between my rankings and the others the closest correlation is to the rankings of Hatch and of Wobus (correlation of 0.98). Although these are two quite different systems and my system isn't like either although it may be closer to Wobus.
JMC
Sunday, 10 October 2010
Week 6 NCAA football rankings using Noahchain
Here are the first rankings of the college football season.
Well done TCU and LSU who would be in the national chanpionship game if the season ended today and my rankings were used.
1 TCU
2 LSU
3 Oklahoma
4 Michigan st
5 Oregon
6 Auburn
7 Boise st
8 Stanford
9 Nebraska
10 Missouri
11 Arizona
12 South Carolina
13 Alabama
14 Kansas st
15 Nevada
16 Air Force
17 Florida st
18 Oregon st
19 Ohio state
20 Iowa
21 Michigan
22 Oklahoma st
23 Illinois
24 California
25 Wisconsin
26 Arkansas
27 Mississippi st
28 Iowa st
29 West Virginia
30 Utah
31 Arizona St
32 Maryland
33 Hawai`i
34 Temple
35 Penn state
36 Colorado
37 Navy
38 Florida
39 Northern Illinois
40 UCLA
41 Notre Dame
42 Houston
43 Miami FL
44 Southern Cal
45 Northwestern
46 Baylor
47 Purdue
48 Syracuse
49 Toledo
50 Texas A&M
51 Texas
52 Wyoming
53 Texas Tech
54 UTEP
55 SMU
56 Washington
57 Indiana
58 Idaho
59 San Diego st
60 South Florida
61 Pittsburgh
62 Tennessee
63 Army
64 Western Michigan
65 Georgia
66 Connecticut
67 Brigham Young
68 Southern Miss
69 Louisiana Tech
70 Clemson
71 Troy
72 Washington st
73 Louisiana-Monroe
74 Vanderbilt
75 Ohio U.
76 Central Florida
77 Colorado st
78 North Carolina
79 Buffalo
80 Louisville
81 Miami OH
82 UNLV
83 Duke
84 Tulsa
85 Virginia
86 Rice
87 North Carolina St
88 Rutgers
89 Utah st
90 Wake Forest
91 Marshall
92 Florida Int'l
93 Arkansas St
94 Alabama-Birmingham
95 Florida Atlantic
96 Cincinnati
97 Kent st
98 Bowling Green
99 Louisiana-Lafayette
100 Fresno st
101 Georgia Tech
102 East Carolina
103 Tulane
104 Memphis
105 Western Kentucky
106 New Mexico
107 North Texas
108 Kentucky
109 Boston College
110 Middle Tennessee St
111 New Mexico st
112 Virginia Tech
113 Eastern Michigan
114 Mississippi
115 Central Michigan
116 Ball St
117 Kansas
118 San José St
119 Minnesota
120 aa
121 Akron
Well done TCU and LSU who would be in the national chanpionship game if the season ended today and my rankings were used.
1 TCU
2 LSU
3 Oklahoma
4 Michigan st
5 Oregon
6 Auburn
7 Boise st
8 Stanford
9 Nebraska
10 Missouri
11 Arizona
12 South Carolina
13 Alabama
14 Kansas st
15 Nevada
16 Air Force
17 Florida st
18 Oregon st
19 Ohio state
20 Iowa
21 Michigan
22 Oklahoma st
23 Illinois
24 California
25 Wisconsin
26 Arkansas
27 Mississippi st
28 Iowa st
29 West Virginia
30 Utah
31 Arizona St
32 Maryland
33 Hawai`i
34 Temple
35 Penn state
36 Colorado
37 Navy
38 Florida
39 Northern Illinois
40 UCLA
41 Notre Dame
42 Houston
43 Miami FL
44 Southern Cal
45 Northwestern
46 Baylor
47 Purdue
48 Syracuse
49 Toledo
50 Texas A&M
51 Texas
52 Wyoming
53 Texas Tech
54 UTEP
55 SMU
56 Washington
57 Indiana
58 Idaho
59 San Diego st
60 South Florida
61 Pittsburgh
62 Tennessee
63 Army
64 Western Michigan
65 Georgia
66 Connecticut
67 Brigham Young
68 Southern Miss
69 Louisiana Tech
70 Clemson
71 Troy
72 Washington st
73 Louisiana-Monroe
74 Vanderbilt
75 Ohio U.
76 Central Florida
77 Colorado st
78 North Carolina
79 Buffalo
80 Louisville
81 Miami OH
82 UNLV
83 Duke
84 Tulsa
85 Virginia
86 Rice
87 North Carolina St
88 Rutgers
89 Utah st
90 Wake Forest
91 Marshall
92 Florida Int'l
93 Arkansas St
94 Alabama-Birmingham
95 Florida Atlantic
96 Cincinnati
97 Kent st
98 Bowling Green
99 Louisiana-Lafayette
100 Fresno st
101 Georgia Tech
102 East Carolina
103 Tulane
104 Memphis
105 Western Kentucky
106 New Mexico
107 North Texas
108 Kentucky
109 Boston College
110 Middle Tennessee St
111 New Mexico st
112 Virginia Tech
113 Eastern Michigan
114 Mississippi
115 Central Michigan
116 Ball St
117 Kansas
118 San José St
119 Minnesota
120 aa
121 Akron
Saturday, 7 August 2010
NFL eliminator strategy.
A popular competition is the NFL eliminator or survivor pool where you choose a team each week and if they lose you are out but if you win you survive to next week but you cannot choose the same time twice in a season.
I think there is a way to identify which pick is the most "value" in terms of your chances of winning the competition if you know(or can estimate) a) how may contestants have picked each team and b) each team’s chance of winning. The general approach you want to pick a good team with little support and avoid good teams with a lot of support and hope that your team win and the other good team lose elsewhere to reduce the number of opponents.
Mathematically your chance of winning the competition overall is equal to your chance of your pick winning this week divided by the number of contestants left if you do win. Call this your survival factor, the aim is to pick the team with the highest survival factor.
For many eliminator pools (ESPN Yahoo) you can see what percentage of people have picked each team.
To work out each teams survival factor I do the following
a) for each game multiply the chance of the favorite winning by the number of people who have picked them add to this the chance of the underdog winning multiplied by the percentage of people who have picked them. This gives the average number of survivors from this game.
b) Then take each team in turn and divide their winning chance in that game by the number of survivors using the average number of survivors from all other games plus the support for this particular team.
This is a one week at a time approach but I think that as it is impossible to predict future matches several weeks in advance this is probably as good a way as any.
Using the current yahoo survivor pool selections and the moneyline from Football Locks.com Tennessee are way too popular and the Giants are too unpopular so I am going for the Giants.
I think there is a way to identify which pick is the most "value" in terms of your chances of winning the competition if you know(or can estimate) a) how may contestants have picked each team and b) each team’s chance of winning. The general approach you want to pick a good team with little support and avoid good teams with a lot of support and hope that your team win and the other good team lose elsewhere to reduce the number of opponents.
Mathematically your chance of winning the competition overall is equal to your chance of your pick winning this week divided by the number of contestants left if you do win. Call this your survival factor, the aim is to pick the team with the highest survival factor.
For many eliminator pools (ESPN Yahoo) you can see what percentage of people have picked each team.
To work out each teams survival factor I do the following
a) for each game multiply the chance of the favorite winning by the number of people who have picked them add to this the chance of the underdog winning multiplied by the percentage of people who have picked them. This gives the average number of survivors from this game.
b) Then take each team in turn and divide their winning chance in that game by the number of survivors using the average number of survivors from all other games plus the support for this particular team.
This is a one week at a time approach but I think that as it is impossible to predict future matches several weeks in advance this is probably as good a way as any.
Using the current yahoo survivor pool selections and the moneyline from Football Locks.com Tennessee are way too popular and the Giants are too unpopular so I am going for the Giants.
How much is a win worth in the MLB
There is much talk about a baseball players wins probability added (WPA) and similar stats. I wanted to take a step back and see how much is adding X number of wins to a team actually worth in terms of a) reaching the playoffs and b)winning in the playoffs.
I looked at each team’s W-L record for the last five seasons (2005-2009) and calculated the effect of adding or subtracting wins to their record in terms of reaching the playoffs.
So if a team was 4 games behind the wildcard team adding 1,2 or 3 games has no effect, and the probability of making the playoffs stays at 0. Adding 4 games would lead to a playoff so the chances of making the playoffs is considered to be 50%. Adding 5 or more games leads to a 100% chance of making the playoffs.
Doing this for all 150 teams-seasons showed that each win increases a team’s chances of making the playoffs by 2.8% the actual line is a sigmoid but it is very linear except at the extremes.
However when we get to the playoffs the situation is quite different. I looked at seven years 2002-2008 where there were 49 playoff series. In three of these both teams had the same regular season record. In the other 46 the team with the best regular season record went 24-22 which is little better than a coin toss.
Even splitting the 46 into the 24 with the smallest regular season record difference (5 games or less) and the 22 with the biggest difference(6 or more games) had no effect with the 22 biggest difference teams only going 12-10, the small difference teams went 12-12.
So maybe Billy Beane shouldn't have been too upset when he complained that his "S*** doesn’t work in the playoffs."
I looked at each team’s W-L record for the last five seasons (2005-2009) and calculated the effect of adding or subtracting wins to their record in terms of reaching the playoffs.
So if a team was 4 games behind the wildcard team adding 1,2 or 3 games has no effect, and the probability of making the playoffs stays at 0. Adding 4 games would lead to a playoff so the chances of making the playoffs is considered to be 50%. Adding 5 or more games leads to a 100% chance of making the playoffs.
Doing this for all 150 teams-seasons showed that each win increases a team’s chances of making the playoffs by 2.8% the actual line is a sigmoid but it is very linear except at the extremes.
However when we get to the playoffs the situation is quite different. I looked at seven years 2002-2008 where there were 49 playoff series. In three of these both teams had the same regular season record. In the other 46 the team with the best regular season record went 24-22 which is little better than a coin toss.
Even splitting the 46 into the 24 with the smallest regular season record difference (5 games or less) and the 22 with the biggest difference(6 or more games) had no effect with the 22 biggest difference teams only going 12-10, the small difference teams went 12-12.
So maybe Billy Beane shouldn't have been too upset when he complained that his "S*** doesn’t work in the playoffs."
Baseball Card game based on Game theory
A few months ago TangoTiger asked if anyone could develop a simple game resembling baseball for use with a standard deck of playing cards.
This was my attempt based on the game theory aspects of the confrontation between pitcher and batter.
http://docs.google.com/document/edit?id=1lj1xCAONqYgQdg7tKjNA4W0M_m0Yt2l33mY-Brj8JXk&hl=en
This was my attempt based on the game theory aspects of the confrontation between pitcher and batter.
http://docs.google.com/document/edit?id=1lj1xCAONqYgQdg7tKjNA4W0M_m0Yt2l33mY-Brj8JXk&hl=en
NoahChain football ranking system
NoahChain
A pair-wise ranking system for college football teams
There are five steps to this method
The brief explanation
1. Count chains of wins and losses between each pair of teams.
For example consider the following chains which link team A and B
A beats B, Primary Win for A
A beats C who beats B, Secondary Win for A
A beats E who beats F who beats B, Third level win for A
B beats G who beats A Secondary Loss for A
2. Convert secondary and third level and higher level wins and losses to the equivalent number of primary wins and losses. This is based on the probability that each chain represents team A being higher ranked than team B. This requires a parameter “H” which is the probability of the winner of a single game is higher ranked than the loser. This parameter “H” is the key to this ranking system. H is usually around 80%
3. Calculate the likelihood of team A being better than team B This is based on the number of equivalent victories and losses between the two teams.
4. Determine the average likelihood that team A is better than a random team. This is simply the average of the likelihood of team A being better than the other teams. Repeat this for all teams and then rank all teams on this basis.
5. Iterate the expected win percentage until it stabilises. Alter the percentage of games higher ranking teams are expected to win (parameter “H”) until the value equals the actual percentage of games won by the higher ranked team in that season.
For a more detailed explanation see this google doc link https://docs.google.com/document/edit?id=1dePOpGFRW6BqZQIHLLf1J_mOvZci1_F1K1hb-C5Li34&hl=en#
I hope to have this accepted onto the Massey ranking websites once the 2010 season starts.
It is called NoahChain because it compares teams two by two and looks at chains of victories and defeats.
A pair-wise ranking system for college football teams
There are five steps to this method
The brief explanation
1. Count chains of wins and losses between each pair of teams.
For example consider the following chains which link team A and B
A beats B, Primary Win for A
A beats C who beats B, Secondary Win for A
A beats E who beats F who beats B, Third level win for A
B beats G who beats A Secondary Loss for A
2. Convert secondary and third level and higher level wins and losses to the equivalent number of primary wins and losses. This is based on the probability that each chain represents team A being higher ranked than team B. This requires a parameter “H” which is the probability of the winner of a single game is higher ranked than the loser. This parameter “H” is the key to this ranking system. H is usually around 80%
3. Calculate the likelihood of team A being better than team B This is based on the number of equivalent victories and losses between the two teams.
4. Determine the average likelihood that team A is better than a random team. This is simply the average of the likelihood of team A being better than the other teams. Repeat this for all teams and then rank all teams on this basis.
5. Iterate the expected win percentage until it stabilises. Alter the percentage of games higher ranking teams are expected to win (parameter “H”) until the value equals the actual percentage of games won by the higher ranked team in that season.
For a more detailed explanation see this google doc link https://docs.google.com/document/edit?id=1dePOpGFRW6BqZQIHLLf1J_mOvZci1_F1K1hb-C5Li34&hl=en#
I hope to have this accepted onto the Massey ranking websites once the 2010 season starts.
It is called NoahChain because it compares teams two by two and looks at chains of victories and defeats.
Wednesday, 4 August 2010
How to stop NFL top seeds from resting starters in the last week
To make sure teams have something to play for after the top seed is secured I think the way the bye for the first round of playoffs should change. Instead of the top two seeds getting byes it should be based on their record in the last 3 weeks. If you win in week 17 you get 4 bye week points if you win in week 16 you get 2 bye points and 1 point for a week 15 win. The two division winners with the most bye week points get the bye. Homefield advantage would stay with the highest seeds. This should solve the problem of number one seeds resting starters.
Saturday, 31 July 2010
First blog
First post. I want to use this blog to discuss sabermetric analysis that I mess around with. I will post my spreadsheets either on this blog or on google docs which might spark discussion. Also I am developing an NCAA football rating system(there are only about 100 developed so far so we need another one.). I have suggestions for revising the NFL CBA. I will review my favourite sports books and sports managment games that I have read/played.
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