Sunday 31 October 2010

Week 9 rankings

Oklahoma and Auburn remain in the top two slots. 


1 Oklahoma 0.7497


2 Auburn 0.7456

3 TCU 0.7439

4 Nebraska 0.7349

5 Missouri 0.7259

6 Arizona 0.6997

7 LSU 0.6964

8 Oregon 0.6941

9 Boise st 0.6901

10 Stanford 0.6888

11 Oklahoma st 0.6845

12 Iowa 0.6826

13 Wisconsin 0.6785

14 Michigan st 0.6784

15 Utah 0.6774

16 Baylor 0.6646

17 Alabama 0.6598

18 Ohio state 0.6537

19 Mississippi st 0.6520

20 Iowa st 0.6424

21 North Carolina St 0.6378

22 Texas 0.6351

23 Kansas st 0.6337

24 Virginia Tech 0.6328

25 Oregon st 0.6287

26 Arkansas 0.6239

27 Florida st 0.6216

28 South Carolina 0.6156

29 Florida 0.6000

30 Texas Tech 0.5975

31 East Carolina 0.5941

32 Central Florida 0.5905

33 Southern Cal 0.5888

34 Texas A&M 0.5874

35 Illinois 0.5839

36 Nevada 0.5831

37 Air Force 0.5827

38 Miami FL 0.5790

39 North Carolina 0.5698

40 Washington 0.5667

41 Michigan 0.5666

42 Hawai`i 0.5649

43 Penn state 0.5624

44 UCLA 0.5610

45 California 0.5580

46 Temple 0.5450

47 Northern Illinois 0.5369

48 San Diego st 0.5367

49 Kentucky 0.5292

50 Colorado 0.5291

51 Maryland 0.5241

52 Northwestern 0.5234

53 Pittsburgh 0.5216

54 Brigham Young 0.5214

55 Arizona St 0.5192

56 Syracuse 0.5172

57 Georgia 0.5141

58 Georgia Tech 0.5080

59 Tulsa 0.5050

60 Toledo 0.5049

61 Clemson 0.5047

62 Navy 0.5033

63 West Virginia 0.5010

64 Mississippi 0.4940

65 Notre Dame 0.4892

66 Fresno st 0.4890

67 Indiana 0.4884

68 SMU 0.4849

69 Tennessee 0.4812

70 Virginia 0.4773

71 South Florida 0.4759

72 Houston 0.4751

73 Army 0.4655

74 Purdue 0.4645

75 Boston College 0.4571

76 Southern Miss 0.4541

77 Wyoming 0.4520

78 Cincinnati 0.4491

79 Louisville 0.4407

80 Connecticut 0.4399

81 Rutgers 0.4394

82 Ohio U. 0.4372

83 Kansas 0.4336

84 Miami OH 0.4273

85 Utah st 0.4258

86 Vanderbilt 0.4225

87 Duke 0.4115

88 Colorado st 0.4113

89 Troy 0.4106

90 Louisiana Tech 0.4069

91 Wake Forest 0.4052

92 Minnesota 0.3993

93 Kent st 0.3987

94 Washington st 0.3954

95 Idaho 0.3941

96 Tulane 0.3836

97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3830

98 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3778

99 Western Michigan 0.3775

100 Buffalo 0.3757

101 Rice 0.3709

102 UNLV 0.3567

103 Marshall 0.3557

104 San José St 0.3442

105 Arkansas St 0.3332

106 Middle Tennessee St 0.3262

107 UTEP 0.3129

108 Florida Int'l 0.3121

109 Bowling Green 0.3095

110 New Mexico st 0.2979

111 aa 0.2957

112 Memphis 0.2940

113 Florida Atlantic 0.2761

114 Central Michigan 0.2726

115 Akron 0.2666

116 Ball St 0.2626

117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2608

118 Eastern Michigan 0.2441

119 New Mexico 0.2428

120 Western Kentucky 0.2312

121 North Texas 0.2219

Sunday 24 October 2010

Week 8 rankings

Here they are.

Despite Oklahomas loss to Missouri it only drops one place and it is only narrowly behind Auburn.  The reason for this is that a loss to an undefeated team does very little damage to a team. 
It will be interesting to see what the other systems say.
Alabama's victory over Tennessee (no.70) doesn't help it much  neither does Oregon beating No.50 UCLA also doesnt help much.

Boise's weak schedule is still hurting it although being on a bye week also doesn't help.

1 Auburn 0.7131


2 Oklahoma 0.7130

3 Missouri 0.7083

4 TCU 0.7016

5 LSU 0.6664

6 Michigan st 0.6656

7 Wisconsin 0.6457

8 Nebraska 0.6416

9 Arizona 0.6342

10 Boise st 0.6339

11 Oregon 0.6317

12 Stanford 0.6283

13 Ohio state 0.6222

14 Utah 0.6216

15 Alabama 0.6160

16 Baylor 0.6114

17 Iowa st 0.6104

18 Kansas st 0.6097

19 Mississippi st 0.6090

20 Texas 0.6081

21 Oklahoma st 0.6054

22 Florida st 0.6047

23 Iowa 0.6012

24 Miami FL 0.5952

25 South Carolina 0.5942

26 Arkansas 0.5865

27 Texas Tech 0.5842

28 Air Force 0.5768

29 Virginia Tech 0.5711

30 Nevada 0.5709

31 Oregon st 0.5676

32 Southern Cal 0.5671

33 California 0.5659

34 East Carolina 0.5657

35 Florida 0.5652

36 North Carolina St 0.5627

37 Hawai`i 0.5588

38 Michigan 0.5580

39 Illinois 0.5568

40 North Carolina 0.5564

41 UCLA 0.5553

42 Navy 0.5499

43 Washington 0.5416

44 Colorado 0.5399

45 Clemson 0.5391

46 West Virginia 0.5347

47 San Diego st 0.5319

48 Pittsburgh 0.5303

49 Notre Dame 0.5302

50 Texas A&M 0.5295

51 Maryland 0.5270

52 Central Florida 0.5267

53 Brigham Young 0.5259

54 Northwestern 0.5248

55 Northern Illinois 0.5247

56 Southern Miss 0.5240

57 Kentucky 0.5210

58 Georgia 0.5191

59 Penn state 0.5179

60 Temple 0.5173

61 Arizona St 0.5137

62 Georgia Tech 0.5108

63 Indiana 0.5093

64 Syracuse 0.5059

65 Toledo 0.5004

66 Mississippi 0.4982

67 Purdue 0.4927

68 Fresno st 0.4902

69 South Florida 0.4892

70 Tennessee 0.4790

71 Tulsa 0.4783

72 SMU 0.4764

73 Cincinnati 0.4726

74 Houston 0.4718

75 Wyoming 0.4690

76 Kansas 0.4644

77 Louisiana Tech 0.4643

78 Louisville 0.4586

79 Boston College 0.4547

80 Utah st 0.4541

81 Troy 0.4520

82 Army 0.4504

83 Rutgers 0.4504

84 Wake Forest 0.4469

85 Vanderbilt 0.4423

86 Virginia 0.4418

87 Miami OH 0.4379

88 Ohio U. 0.4338

89 Idaho 0.4294

90 Florida Int'l 0.4294

91 San José St 0.4293

92 Western Michigan 0.4267

93 Connecticut 0.4260

94 Colorado st 0.4220

95 Washington st 0.4199

96 Tulane 0.4155

97 Minnesota 0.4141

98 Buffalo 0.4123

99 Kent st 0.4066

100 Duke 0.4032

101 Rice 0.4005

102 UNLV 0.3912

103 UTEP 0.3784

104 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3771

105 Marshall 0.3767

106 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3732

107 Arkansas St 0.3698

108 Memphis 0.3664

109 Middle Tennessee St 0.3615

110 Central Michigan 0.3562

111 Western Kentucky 0.3512

112 aa 0.3496

113 New Mexico st 0.3342

114 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.3332

115 Bowling Green 0.3275

116 Ball St 0.3211

117 Akron 0.3020

118 New Mexico 0.3005

119 Florida Atlantic 0.2957

120 Eastern Michigan 0.2920

121 North Texas 0.2721

Sunday 17 October 2010

Week 7 rankings

Here are the rankings.

Oklahoma are now number 1 with LSU in 2nd place.  The rating is the averaged  probability that the team in question is better than each of the other 120 teams. The difference between the top and bottom teams will increase as the season progresses as there will be more data to link and therefore differentiate between the teams as every team starts as .500 at the start of the season.

FCS teams are represented by a single super-team termed "aa".


Rank Team Rating


1 Oklahoma 0.645

2 LSU 0.634

3 TCU 0.631

4 Auburn 0.628

5 Michigan st 0.611

6 Boise st 0.606

7 Missouri 0.600

8 Stanford 0.593

9 Oregon 0.580

10 Oklahoma st 0.579

11 Kansas st 0.579

12 Alabama 0.579

13 Nebraska 0.577

14 Texas 0.571

15 Mississippi st 0.569

16 Arizona 0.569

17 South Carolina 0.568

18 Wisconsin 0.568

19 Iowa 0.561

20 Utah 0.560

21 Ohio state 0.559

22 Florida st 0.556

23 Virginia Tech 0.556

24 Baylor 0.553

25 East Carolina 0.552

26 Air Force 0.551

27 North Carolina 0.549

28 North Carolina St 0.549

29 Nevada 0.547

30 Florida 0.546

31 Michigan 0.545

32 Southern Cal 0.544

33 West Virginia 0.541

34 Hawai`i 0.541

35 Oregon st 0.538

36 Iowa st 0.537

37 Texas Tech 0.536

38 Arkansas 0.534

39 Colorado 0.531

40 Illinois 0.531

41 UCLA 0.530

42 California 0.529

43 Notre Dame 0.528

44 Washington 0.527

45 Northwestern 0.527

46 Kentucky 0.524

47 Miami FL 0.523

48 Navy 0.522

49 Southern Miss 0.522

50 San Diego st 0.521

51 Georgia Tech 0.520

52 Arizona St 0.519

53 Northern Illinois 0.518

54 Maryland 0.517

55 Central Florida 0.517

56 SMU 0.512

57 Texas A&M 0.512

58 Temple 0.510

59 Brigham Young 0.507

60 Purdue 0.507

61 Clemson 0.507

62 Toledo 0.506

63 Indiana 0.506

64 Penn state 0.506

65 Mississippi 0.502

66 Pittsburgh 0.500

67 Georgia 0.498

68 Wyoming 0.497

69 Cincinnati 0.497

70 Fresno st 0.496

71 Tulsa 0.495

72 Miami OH 0.490

73 Tennessee 0.488

74 Kansas 0.482

75 Rutgers 0.482

76 South Florida 0.481

77 Boston College 0.479

78 Syracuse 0.478

79 Connecticut 0.477

80 Troy 0.477

81 Vanderbilt 0.474

82 Houston 0.472

83 Louisiana Tech 0.471

84 Utah st 0.470

85 Louisville 0.468

86 Army 0.466

87 Wake Forest 0.464

88 San José St 0.461

89 Virginia 0.461

90 Louisiana-Monroe 0.460

91 Colorado st 0.457

92 Ohio U. 0.453

93 Buffalo 0.451

94 UTEP 0.450

95 Florida Int'l 0.449

96 Idaho 0.449

97 Western Michigan 0.448

98 Washington st 0.446

99 Rice 0.446

100 Kent st 0.440

101 Minnesota 0.438

102 Tulane 0.434

103 Alabama-Birmingham 0.430

104 Duke 0.428

105 Marshall 0.428

106 UNLV 0.426

107 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.418

108 Arkansas St 0.416

109 Central Michigan 0.414

110 Memphis 0.413

111 New Mexico st 0.410

112 aa 0.402

113 Middle Tennessee St 0.400

114 Bowling Green 0.398

115 Western Kentucky 0.394

116 Florida Atlantic 0.393

117 Ball St 0.385

118 New Mexico 0.373

119 Eastern Michigan 0.371

120 Akron 0.368

121 North Texas 0.337

Friday 15 October 2010

Corrected week 6 rankings

I have adjusted how the ranking system treats games against FCS teams as initially they were counting for far more than a game against an FBS team.

The weighting given to these games when calculating secondary wins and losses is now equal to the average number of games played by FBS teams divided by the number of games FCS have played.  So as the average number of games played is just under 6 but 81  games against FCS teams have been played  the weighting is ~6/81 =.07.  Or in other words my original system was making a win or loss against a FCS count 14 times as much as an ordinary game when secondary and higher level wins and losses  are being calculated.

This has dramatically changed some teams rankings as Virginia Tech have jumped from 112 to 25th compared with the Massey consensus of 24th. Nth Carolina State from 66th to 23rd (Massey Consensus 25th)

Boise have jumped to second, TCU have dropped to third and LSU are now first.

The correlation to the massey consensus is now a respectable .961 which is 33rd best out of the 119 systems whereas previously I was in last place when you excluded the polls. So I think this adjustment has corrected the large and difficult to justify discrepencies in the original version. 
So hopefully next week my rankings will not annoy Josh as much.

Looking at the correlation between my rankings and the others the closest correlation is to the rankings of Hatch and of Wobus (correlation of 0.98).  Although these are two quite different systems and my system isn't like either although it may be closer to Wobus.

JMC

Sunday 10 October 2010

Week 6 NCAA football rankings using Noahchain

Here are the first rankings of the college football season.
Well done TCU and LSU who would be in the national chanpionship game if the season ended today and my rankings were used.


1 TCU


2 LSU

3 Oklahoma

4 Michigan st

5 Oregon

6 Auburn

7 Boise st

8 Stanford

9 Nebraska

10 Missouri

11 Arizona

12 South Carolina

13 Alabama

14 Kansas st

15 Nevada

16 Air Force

17 Florida st

18 Oregon st

19 Ohio state

20 Iowa

21 Michigan

22 Oklahoma st

23 Illinois

24 California

25 Wisconsin

26 Arkansas

27 Mississippi st

28 Iowa st

29 West Virginia

30 Utah

31 Arizona St

32 Maryland

33 Hawai`i

34 Temple

35 Penn state

36 Colorado

37 Navy

38 Florida

39 Northern Illinois

40 UCLA

41 Notre Dame

42 Houston

43 Miami FL

44 Southern Cal

45 Northwestern

46 Baylor

47 Purdue

48 Syracuse

49 Toledo

50 Texas A&M

51 Texas

52 Wyoming

53 Texas Tech

54 UTEP

55 SMU

56 Washington

57 Indiana

58 Idaho

59 San Diego st

60 South Florida

61 Pittsburgh

62 Tennessee

63 Army

64 Western Michigan

65 Georgia

66 Connecticut

67 Brigham Young

68 Southern Miss

69 Louisiana Tech

70 Clemson

71 Troy

72 Washington st

73 Louisiana-Monroe

74 Vanderbilt

75 Ohio U.

76 Central Florida

77 Colorado st

78 North Carolina

79 Buffalo

80 Louisville

81 Miami OH

82 UNLV

83 Duke

84 Tulsa

85 Virginia

86 Rice

87 North Carolina St

88 Rutgers

89 Utah st

90 Wake Forest

91 Marshall

92 Florida Int'l

93 Arkansas St

94 Alabama-Birmingham

95 Florida Atlantic

96 Cincinnati

97 Kent st

98 Bowling Green

99 Louisiana-Lafayette

100 Fresno st

101 Georgia Tech

102 East Carolina

103 Tulane

104 Memphis

105 Western Kentucky

106 New Mexico

107 North Texas

108 Kentucky

109 Boston College

110 Middle Tennessee St

111 New Mexico st

112 Virginia Tech

113 Eastern Michigan

114 Mississippi

115 Central Michigan

116 Ball St

117 Kansas

118 San José St

119 Minnesota

120 aa

121 Akron