Saturday 18 December 2010

Bowl predictions

Using pointshare and Noahchain here are my picks in the espn bowl mania competition. I am also in the fox sports and Solid verbal pointspread pickem competitions using the pointshare pointspread equivalent to make the picks agaisnt the spread.

Pointshare
Confidence Pick Predicted winning margin


35 Boise St 19.2

34 Nevada 19

33 Oklahoma 12.9

32 Oregon 11.7

31 Nebraska 10.8

30 Brigham Young 9.3

29 Clemson 8.9

28 Mississippi St 8.1

27 Hawai`i 8

26 Alabama 7.9

25 Illinois 7.5

24 Maryland 7.4

23 TCU 7.3

22 Florida 6.4

21 San Diego St 6.4

20 Miami oh 5.9

19 South Carolina 5.7

18 Air Force 5.4

17 SMU 4.6

16 Stanford 4.6

15 Georgia 4

14 Texas Tech 3.8

13 Florida Int'l 3

12 LSU 2.8

11 Missouri 2.5

10 Louisville 2.4

9 North Carolina 2.4

8 Kansas St 2.3

7 West Virginia 2

6 Pittsburgh 1

5 Fresno St 0.8

4 Miami fl 0.5

3 Oklahoma St 0.4

2 Troy 0.4

1 Ohio State 0.1



Noah Chain
Confidence Pick


35 Oklahoma

34 Brigham Young

33 Kansas St

32 Nevada

31 Air Force

30 Toledo

29 Miami oh

28 Baylor

27 Missouri

26 Texas Tech

25 Oklahoma St

24 Maryland

23 Kentucky

22 SMU

21 Stanford

20 Nebraska

19 Ohio U

18 Boise St

17 Clemson

16 Notre Dame

15 Mississippi St

14 South Carolina

13 Fresno St

12 Hawai`i

11 Florida

10 Arkansas

9 Alabama

8 Southern Miss

7 North Carolina St

6 Texas A&M

5 TCU

4 Tennessee

3 Navy

2 Georgia

1 Oregon

Week 14 NFL rankings using pointshare

THis includes the Week 15 Thursday game between the 49ers and Chargers.
Injuries and momentum are not taken into account only the results throughout the season.
HFA is 2.1 points

Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent


1 New England Patriots 50.1

2 Pittsburgh Steelers 47.3

3 Green Bay Packers 47.0

4 Baltimore Ravens 46.4

5 Atlanta Falcons 45.7

6 San Diego Chargers 45.6

7 New York Jets 44.8

8 Philadelphia Eagles 44.7

9 Indianapolis Colts 43.7

10 New Orleans Saints 43.4

11 New York Giants 43.1

12 Chicago Bears 42.3

13 Miami Dolphins 41.9

14 Cleveland Browns 41.9

15 Tennessee Titans 41.9

16 Kansas City Chiefs 41.0

17 Houston Texans 39.9

18 Detroit Lions 39.6

19 Jacksonville Jaguars 39.5

20 Dallas Cowboys 39.3

21 Oakland Raiders 39.1

22 Minnesota Vikings 38.7

23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38.6

24 Washington Redskins 38.3

25 Buffalo Bills 37.6

26 St. Louis Rams 37.2

27 Cincinnati Bengals 37.0

28 Denver Broncos 35.4

29 San Francisco 49ers 35.4

30 Seattle Seahawks 34.5

31 Arizona Cardinals 32.3

32 Carolina Panthers 28.5

Sunday 5 December 2010

Week 14 Pointshare

Here they are  Oregon are a clear number one but Auburn's big victory over South Carolina hasn't improved it's ranking by much and it is only in 5th place around 11.5 points behind Oregon.
With HFA at 3.1 Navy are 7 point favourites over army next week accoridng to this system.

Rank Team Pointspread Equivalent


1 Oregon 72.9

2 Boise St 64.8

3 TCU 62.9

4 Stanford 62.1

5 Auburn 61.2

6 Nevada 58.4

7 Alabama 57.9

8 Virginia Tech 57.5

9 Ohio State 57.0

10 Arkansas 56.9

11 Wisconsin 55.6

12 South Carolina 54.9

13 Nebraska 54.6

14 LSU 54.1

15 Arizona St 53.9

16 Oklahoma 53.7

17 Missouri 53.6

18 California 52.6

19 Southern Cal 52.5

20 Oregon St 52.1

21 Texas A&M 51.3

22 Iowa 51.1

23 Oklahoma St 50.6

24 Arizona 50.2

25 Michigan St 50.0

26 San Diego St 49.9

27 West Virginia 49.8

28 Florida St 49.2

29 Clemson 48.0

30 North Carolina St 47.8

31 Mississippi St 47.6

32 Miami FL 47.4

33 Hawai`i 47.4

34 Notre Dame 46.9

35 Air Force 46.7

36 Georgia 46.4

37 Pittsburgh 45.7

38 Utah 45.6

39 Florida 45.0

40 Kentucky 44.7

41 Illinois 43.8

42 Washington 43.8

43 Navy 43.5

44 North Carolina 43.5

45 Central Florida 42.4

46 Maryland 42.2

47 Texas 41.7

48 Georgia Tech 41.3

49 Washington St 41.2

50 Tennessee 41.1

51 Kansas St 41.1

52 Fresno St 41.0

53 Mississippi 41.0

54 Louisville 40.9

55 Connecticut 40.8

56 Northern Illinois 40.2

57 Texas Tech 40.0

58 Michigan 39.5

59 Tulsa 39.4

60 Boston College 39.4

61 South Florida 39.1

62 Brigham Young 38.9

63 Syracuse 38.8

64 Iowa St 38.7

65 Penn State 38.6

66 UCLA 38.6

67 Southern Miss 38.5

68 SMU 38.1

69 Colorado 37.7

70 Virginia 37.0

71 Cincinnati 36.6

72 Temple 36.4

73 Baylor 36.3

74 Northwestern 36.2

75 Minnesota 35.6

76 East Carolina 34.8

77 Troy 34.5

78 Utah St 34.4

79 Florida Int'l 34.3

80 Ohio U. 34.1

81 Purdue 33.7

82 Army 33.5

83 Duke 33.2

84 Louisiana Tech 32.8

85 Houston 32.7

86 Alabama-Birmingham 32.1

87 Rutgers 31.6

88 Idaho 31.5

89 Toledo 31.3

90 Miami OH 31.2

91 Arkansas St 30.6

92 Indiana 30.6

93 Central Michigan 30.0

94 UTEP 29.6

95 Marshall 28.8

96 Western Michigan 28.4

97 San José St 28.0

98 Vanderbilt 28.0

99 Wyoming 27.8

100 Kansas 27.7

101 Wake Forest 27.3

102 Kent St 27.0

103 Colorado St 26.7

104 Florida Atlantic 25.7

105 Middle Tennessee St 25.3

106 Bowling Green 25.0

107 Louisiana-Monroe 24.9

108 Rice 24.5

109 North Texas 22.7

110 Western Kentucky 22.3

111 Ball St 22.2

112 UNLV 21.8

113 Louisiana-Lafayette 21.6

114 Tulane 21.4

115 Buffalo 19.9

116 New Mexico 17.3

117 New Mexico St 15.9

118 Eastern Michigan 15.4

119 Memphis 13.3

120 Akron 11.5



FCS
1 Delaware 46.0


2 James Madison 44.0

3 Villanova 43.9

4 New Hampshire 42.6

5 William & Mary 42.6

6 Georgia Southern 38.6

7 Massachusetts 36.3

8 Appalachian St 35.8

9 Wofford 35.0

10 Rhode Island 33.2

11 Pennsylvania 32.0

12 Western Illinois 31.8

13 North Dakota St 31.3

14 Richmond 30.9

15 Maine 30.8

16 Montana St 30.7

17 Chattanooga 30.6

18 South Dakota St 30.4

19 Liberty 30.2

20 Elon 29.6

21 Eastern Washington 29.6

22 Furman 29.5

23 Northern Arizona 29.5

24 Jacksonville St 29.4

25 Sacramento St 28.4

26 Southern Utah 27.3

27 Northern Iowa 27.1

28 Montana 25.5

29 Eastern Kentucky 25.1

30 Lehigh 24.9

31 Southern Illinois 24.6

32 SE Missouri St 24.5

33 Stephen F. Austin 24.5

34 Old Dominion 24.4

35 Brown 24.4

36 Robert Morris 24.3

37 Missouri St 24.0

38 Samford 23.5

39 Harvard 23.4

40 Cal Poly SLO 23.3

41 Murray St 22.2

42 Youngstown St 22.2

43 South Dakota 22.0

44 Weber St 21.8

45 Indiana St 21.6

46 Dayton 21.6

47 North Dakota 21.2

48 McNeese St 21.1

49 Stony Brook 20.9

50 Coastal Carolina 20.6

51 Jacksonville FL 20.2

52 Illinois St 19.8

53 UC-Davis 19.8

54 Yale 19.7

55 Towson 19.6

56 Dartmouth 19.2

57 Albany NY 18.8

58 Bryant 18.4

59 Fordham 18.4

60 Duquesne 18.1

61 Monmouth NJ 17.9

62 Tennessee Tech 17.6

63 Central Conn St 17.5

64 Central Arkansas 17.3

65 Sam Houston St 16.7

66 Grambling St 16.5

67 Columbia 16.5

68 Tennessee-Martin 16.3

69 Northern Colorado 16.3

70 Texas St-San Marcos 16.3

71 Holy Cross 15.4

72 Colgate 15.4

73 Jackson St 15.4

74 Lafayette 14.8

75 SE Louisiana St 14.4

76 Bethune-Cookman 13.9

77 Portland St 13.9

78 Sacred Heart 13.3

79 Drake 13.0

80 Wagner 12.4

81 Texas Southern 12.2

82 South Carolina St 11.6

83 Eastern Illinois 11.4

84 Northwestern St 11.2

85 Lamar 10.9

86 The Citadel 10.6

87 Tennessee St 10.5

88 Georgetown DC 10.2

89 Prairie View A&M 10.0

90 Western Carolina 9.3

91 Idaho St 8.9

92 Gardner-Webb 8.6

93 San Diego 8.2

94 Alcorn St 7.5

95 Princeton 7.4

96 Nicholls St 6.6

97 Charleston Southern 6.3

98 Florida A&M 5.9

99 Alabama St 5.5

100 Cornell NY 5.4

101 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 5.3

102 St Francis PA 5.0

103 d2 4.9

104 Hampton 4.7

105 Campbell 4.4

106 VMI 4.4

107 Presbyterian 3.9

108 Marist 2.9

109 Morehead St 2.7

110 Butler 2.6

111 Bucknell 2.3

112 Austin Peay 2.3

113 Norfolk St 1.8

114 Alabama A&M 0.9

115 North Carolina Central - 0.0

116 Morgan St - 3.2

117 Delaware St - 3.3

118 Southern U. - 3.5

119 Davidson - 5.4

120 Howard - 8.8

121 North Carolina A&T - 9.3

122 Valparaiso - 14.2

123 Savannah St - 18.9

124 Mississippi Valley St - 20.6

Week 14 NoahChain rankings

Here they are the final rankings of the regular season with Oregon and Auburn one and two

1 Oregon 0.9317


2 Auburn 0.9241

3 Stanford 0.9204

4 Oklahoma 0.9108

5 Arkansas 0.9094

6 TCU 0.8960

7 Texas A&M 0.8919

8 Oklahoma st 0.8833

9 Wisconsin 0.8703

10 Ohio state 0.8671

11 Missouri 0.8658

12 LSU 0.8634

13 Alabama 0.8629

14 Boise st 0.8613

15 Nebraska 0.8513

16 Michigan st 0.8243

17 Nevada 0.7919

18 Virginia Tech 0.7919

19 South Carolina 0.7864

20 Mississippi st 0.7823

21 Baylor 0.7574

22 Utah 0.7505

23 Texas Tech 0.7416

24 Southern Cal 0.7313

25 Washington 0.7233

26 Arizona 0.7163

27 Kansas st 0.7057

28 Florida st 0.6947

29 Air Force 0.6894

30 Michigan 0.6839

31 Florida 0.6839

32 Texas 0.6723

33 Arizona St 0.6686

34 Iowa 0.6658

35 Notre Dame 0.6595

36 Oregon st 0.6581

37 Penn state 0.6293

38 Iowa st 0.6236

39 Hawai`i 0.6199

40 California 0.6118

41 Tennessee 0.6049

42 Colorado 0.6013

43 North Carolina St 0.5963

44 Kentucky 0.5845

45 UCLA 0.5842

46 North Carolina 0.5835

47 Georgia 0.5827

48 Northwestern 0.5735

49 Maryland 0.5723

50 Navy 0.5693

51 West Virginia 0.5670

52 Central Florida 0.5629

53 Fresno st 0.5599

54 Miami FL 0.5552

55 Tulsa 0.5544

56 San Diego st 0.5489

57 Illinois 0.5478

58 Brigham Young 0.5387

59 Clemson 0.5295

60 Boston College 0.5019

61 Northern Illinois 0.4713

62 Mississippi 0.4711

63 Pittsburgh 0.4522

64 East Carolina 0.4381

65 SMU 0.4370

66 Minnesota 0.4369

67 Connecticut 0.4324

68 Georgia Tech 0.4285

69 South Florida 0.4226

70 Toledo 0.4158

71 Kansas 0.4088

72 Temple 0.4077

73 Syracuse 0.4060

74 Purdue 0.4033

75 Southern Miss 0.3933

76 Indiana 0.3853

77 Miami OH 0.3780

78 Louisville 0.3625

79 Washington st 0.3420

80 Houston 0.3349

81 Utah st 0.3229

82 Army 0.3084

83 Duke 0.3052

84 Ohio U. 0.3048

85 Virginia 0.3033

86 Cincinnati 0.2970

87 Idaho 0.2969

88 Rice 0.2837

89 Louisiana Tech 0.2658

90 Vanderbilt 0.2583

91 Wake Forest 0.2508

92 Wyoming 0.2484

93 Rutgers 0.2433

94 Marshall 0.2409

95 UTEP 0.2357

96 Colorado st 0.2276

97 Tulane 0.2246

98 UNLV 0.2191

99 Kent st 0.2170

100 Western Michigan 0.2037

101 Alabama-Birmingham 0.1918

102 Troy 0.1819

103 Florida Int'l 0.1598

104 Middle Tennessee St 0.1295

105 San José St 0.1235

106 New Mexico 0.1211

107 New Mexico st 0.1182

108 aa 0.1164

109 Louisiana-Monroe 0.1127

110 Ball St 0.1060

111 Arkansas St 0.1036

112 Bowling Green 0.1019

113 Florida Atlantic 0.1007

114 Central Michigan 0.0997

115 Memphis 0.0910

116 Eastern Michigan 0.0832

117 Buffalo 0.0768

118 North Texas 0.0728

119 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0705

120 Akron 0.0702

121 Western Kentucky 0.0526