Here they are Auburn and TCU are in the top 2 slots
1 Auburn 0.7904
2 TCU 0.7827
3 Nebraska 0.7802
4 Oklahoma st 0.7743
5 LSU 0.7604
6 Stanford 0.7555
7 Oregon 0.7518
8 Oklahoma 0.7356
9 Boise st 0.7316
10 Kansas st 0.7132
11 Missouri 0.7119
12 Arizona 0.7050
13 Alabama 0.7027
14 Iowa 0.7023
15 Arkansas 0.7006
16 Utah 0.6987
17 Wisconsin 0.6973
18 Texas A&M 0.6931
19 Baylor 0.6904
20 Michigan st 0.6893
21 Ohio state 0.6857
22 Mississippi st 0.6673
23 Virginia Tech 0.6659
24 Texas Tech 0.6616
25 Iowa st 0.6555
26 Texas 0.6519
27 South Carolina 0.6371
28 Florida 0.6255
29 North Carolina 0.6218
30 UCLA 0.6186
31 North Carolina St 0.6148
32 Oregon st 0.6132
33 Miami FL 0.6121
34 Air Force 0.6077
35 Southern Cal 0.6076
36 Florida st 0.6043
37 Central Florida 0.6041
38 Michigan 0.5996
39 Penn state 0.5844
40 Nevada 0.5836
41 East Carolina 0.5716
42 Illinois 0.5632
43 California 0.5623
44 Clemson 0.5594
45 Temple 0.5579
46 Washington 0.5556
47 Hawai`i 0.5518
48 San Diego st 0.5427
49 Kentucky 0.5407
50 Navy 0.5375
51 Maryland 0.5360
52 Pittsburgh 0.5265
53 Northern Illinois 0.5258
54 West Virginia 0.5197
55 Georgia Tech 0.5133
56 Mississippi 0.5069
57 Georgia 0.5062
58 Northwestern 0.5059
59 Brigham Young 0.5022
60 Fresno st 0.4978
61 Arizona St 0.4976
62 Colorado 0.4923
63 Tennessee 0.4900
64 South Florida 0.4888
65 Notre Dame 0.4880
66 Syracuse 0.4861
67 Tulsa 0.4860
68 Indiana 0.4742
69 Kansas 0.4641
70 Toledo 0.4628
71 Southern Miss 0.4610
72 Boston College 0.4607
73 Louisville 0.4604
74 Houston 0.4586
75 Army 0.4467
76 Purdue 0.4424
77 Virginia 0.4386
78 Ohio U. 0.4372
79 Connecticut 0.4356
80 Cincinnati 0.4263
81 Duke 0.4247
82 Vanderbilt 0.4173
83 Miami OH 0.4157
84 Utah st 0.4113
85 SMU 0.4111
86 Rutgers 0.3994
87 Colorado st 0.3884
88 Marshall 0.3825
89 Troy 0.3781
90 Minnesota 0.3780
91 Louisiana Tech 0.3746
92 Wake Forest 0.3731
93 Idaho 0.3723
94 Kent st 0.3697
95 Washington st 0.3563
96 Wyoming 0.3516
97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3412
98 Buffalo 0.3401
99 Tulane 0.3308
100 UNLV 0.3294
101 San José St 0.3243
102 UTEP 0.3236
103 Rice 0.3221
104 Arkansas St 0.3214
105 Florida Int'l 0.3131
106 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3104
107 Bowling Green 0.3009
108 Western Michigan 0.2854
109 New Mexico st 0.2714
110 Florida Atlantic 0.2637
111 Middle Tennessee St 0.2608
112 Central Michigan 0.2607
113 Memphis 0.2597
114 New Mexico 0.2493
115 aa 0.2419
116 Ball St 0.2279
117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2190
118 Eastern Michigan 0.2187
119 North Texas 0.1851
120 Akron 0.1809
121 Western Kentucky 0.1757
"You don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. Tomorrow it may rain." -Leo Durocher. A blog about sports statistics, strategy, analysis, player evaluation and economics plus whatever else I feel like ranting about. Focusing on NFL MLB and NCAA football.
Sunday, 14 November 2010
Sunday, 7 November 2010
Week 10 rankings
TCU make it to the top of the rankings following their demolition of Utah.
1 TCU 0.7420
2 Auburn 0.7402
3 Oklahoma 0.7393
4 Nebraska 0.7287
5 Missouri 0.7170
6 LSU 0.6926
7 Arizona 0.6907
8 Oregon 0.6866
9 Boise st 0.6848
10 Stanford 0.6829
11 Oklahoma st 0.6794
12 Iowa 0.6768
13 Michigan st 0.6737
14 Wisconsin 0.6729
15 Utah 0.6689
16 Baylor 0.6566
17 Alabama 0.6535
18 Ohio state 0.6501
19 Mississippi st 0.6481
20 Iowa st 0.6347
21 North Carolina St 0.6312
22 Kansas st 0.6293
23 Texas 0.6271
24 Virginia Tech 0.6244
25 Arkansas 0.6209
26 Oregon st 0.6207
27 Florida st 0.6144
28 South Carolina 0.6081
29 Florida 0.5974
30 Texas Tech 0.5941
31 Central Florida 0.5887
32 East Carolina 0.5886
33 Southern Cal 0.5864
34 Texas A&M 0.5854
35 Air Force 0.5814
36 Nevada 0.5805
37 Illinois 0.5799
38 Miami FL 0.5771
39 North Carolina 0.5694
40 Michigan 0.5667
41 Penn state 0.5639
42 Washington 0.5623
43 Hawai`i 0.5614
44 UCLA 0.5585
45 California 0.5554
46 Temple 0.5457
47 San Diego st 0.5369
48 Northern Illinois 0.5363
49 Colorado 0.5256
50 Maryland 0.5236
51 Pittsburgh 0.5221
52 Northwestern 0.5219
53 Brigham Young 0.5214
54 Kentucky 0.5210
55 Arizona St 0.5163
56 Syracuse 0.5161
57 Georgia 0.5131
58 Tulsa 0.5075
59 Navy 0.5067
60 Georgia Tech 0.5063
61 Toledo 0.5061
62 Clemson 0.5058
63 West Virginia 0.5029
64 Mississippi 0.4922
65 Fresno st 0.4916
66 Notre Dame 0.4906
67 Indiana 0.4889
68 SMU 0.4857
69 Tennessee 0.4816
70 South Florida 0.4804
71 Houston 0.4768
72 Virginia 0.4761
73 Army 0.4666
74 Purdue 0.4662
75 Southern Miss 0.4604
76 Boston College 0.4598
77 Wyoming 0.4523
78 Cincinnati 0.4522
79 Ohio U. 0.4441
80 Louisville 0.4432
81 Connecticut 0.4428
82 Rutgers 0.4413
83 Kansas 0.4341
84 Miami OH 0.4324
85 Utah st 0.4303
86 Vanderbilt 0.4238
87 Troy 0.4176
88 Duke 0.4164
89 Colorado st 0.4144
90 Louisiana Tech 0.4100
91 Wake Forest 0.4075
92 Kent st 0.4020
93 Minnesota 0.3992
94 Washington st 0.3992
95 Idaho 0.3990
96 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3881
97 Tulane 0.3868
98 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3832
99 Western Michigan 0.3813
100 Buffalo 0.3795
101 Rice 0.3743
102 Marshall 0.3656
103 UNLV 0.3617
104 San José St 0.3481
105 Arkansas St 0.3421
106 Middle Tennessee St 0.3314
107 Florida Int'l 0.3234
108 UTEP 0.3224
109 Bowling Green 0.3176
110 New Mexico st 0.3042
111 Memphis 0.3004
112 Florida Atlantic 0.2875
113 aa 0.2860
114 Central Michigan 0.2834
115 Ball St 0.2715
116 Akron 0.2682
117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2678
118 New Mexico 0.2539
119 Eastern Michigan 0.2524
120 Western Kentucky 0.2384
121 North Texas 0.2301
1 TCU 0.7420
2 Auburn 0.7402
3 Oklahoma 0.7393
4 Nebraska 0.7287
5 Missouri 0.7170
6 LSU 0.6926
7 Arizona 0.6907
8 Oregon 0.6866
9 Boise st 0.6848
10 Stanford 0.6829
11 Oklahoma st 0.6794
12 Iowa 0.6768
13 Michigan st 0.6737
14 Wisconsin 0.6729
15 Utah 0.6689
16 Baylor 0.6566
17 Alabama 0.6535
18 Ohio state 0.6501
19 Mississippi st 0.6481
20 Iowa st 0.6347
21 North Carolina St 0.6312
22 Kansas st 0.6293
23 Texas 0.6271
24 Virginia Tech 0.6244
25 Arkansas 0.6209
26 Oregon st 0.6207
27 Florida st 0.6144
28 South Carolina 0.6081
29 Florida 0.5974
30 Texas Tech 0.5941
31 Central Florida 0.5887
32 East Carolina 0.5886
33 Southern Cal 0.5864
34 Texas A&M 0.5854
35 Air Force 0.5814
36 Nevada 0.5805
37 Illinois 0.5799
38 Miami FL 0.5771
39 North Carolina 0.5694
40 Michigan 0.5667
41 Penn state 0.5639
42 Washington 0.5623
43 Hawai`i 0.5614
44 UCLA 0.5585
45 California 0.5554
46 Temple 0.5457
47 San Diego st 0.5369
48 Northern Illinois 0.5363
49 Colorado 0.5256
50 Maryland 0.5236
51 Pittsburgh 0.5221
52 Northwestern 0.5219
53 Brigham Young 0.5214
54 Kentucky 0.5210
55 Arizona St 0.5163
56 Syracuse 0.5161
57 Georgia 0.5131
58 Tulsa 0.5075
59 Navy 0.5067
60 Georgia Tech 0.5063
61 Toledo 0.5061
62 Clemson 0.5058
63 West Virginia 0.5029
64 Mississippi 0.4922
65 Fresno st 0.4916
66 Notre Dame 0.4906
67 Indiana 0.4889
68 SMU 0.4857
69 Tennessee 0.4816
70 South Florida 0.4804
71 Houston 0.4768
72 Virginia 0.4761
73 Army 0.4666
74 Purdue 0.4662
75 Southern Miss 0.4604
76 Boston College 0.4598
77 Wyoming 0.4523
78 Cincinnati 0.4522
79 Ohio U. 0.4441
80 Louisville 0.4432
81 Connecticut 0.4428
82 Rutgers 0.4413
83 Kansas 0.4341
84 Miami OH 0.4324
85 Utah st 0.4303
86 Vanderbilt 0.4238
87 Troy 0.4176
88 Duke 0.4164
89 Colorado st 0.4144
90 Louisiana Tech 0.4100
91 Wake Forest 0.4075
92 Kent st 0.4020
93 Minnesota 0.3992
94 Washington st 0.3992
95 Idaho 0.3990
96 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3881
97 Tulane 0.3868
98 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3832
99 Western Michigan 0.3813
100 Buffalo 0.3795
101 Rice 0.3743
102 Marshall 0.3656
103 UNLV 0.3617
104 San José St 0.3481
105 Arkansas St 0.3421
106 Middle Tennessee St 0.3314
107 Florida Int'l 0.3234
108 UTEP 0.3224
109 Bowling Green 0.3176
110 New Mexico st 0.3042
111 Memphis 0.3004
112 Florida Atlantic 0.2875
113 aa 0.2860
114 Central Michigan 0.2834
115 Ball St 0.2715
116 Akron 0.2682
117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2678
118 New Mexico 0.2539
119 Eastern Michigan 0.2524
120 Western Kentucky 0.2384
121 North Texas 0.2301
Sunday, 31 October 2010
Week 9 rankings
Oklahoma and Auburn remain in the top two slots.
1 Oklahoma 0.7497
2 Auburn 0.7456
3 TCU 0.7439
4 Nebraska 0.7349
5 Missouri 0.7259
6 Arizona 0.6997
7 LSU 0.6964
8 Oregon 0.6941
9 Boise st 0.6901
10 Stanford 0.6888
11 Oklahoma st 0.6845
12 Iowa 0.6826
13 Wisconsin 0.6785
14 Michigan st 0.6784
15 Utah 0.6774
16 Baylor 0.6646
17 Alabama 0.6598
18 Ohio state 0.6537
19 Mississippi st 0.6520
20 Iowa st 0.6424
21 North Carolina St 0.6378
22 Texas 0.6351
23 Kansas st 0.6337
24 Virginia Tech 0.6328
25 Oregon st 0.6287
26 Arkansas 0.6239
27 Florida st 0.6216
28 South Carolina 0.6156
29 Florida 0.6000
30 Texas Tech 0.5975
31 East Carolina 0.5941
32 Central Florida 0.5905
33 Southern Cal 0.5888
34 Texas A&M 0.5874
35 Illinois 0.5839
36 Nevada 0.5831
37 Air Force 0.5827
38 Miami FL 0.5790
39 North Carolina 0.5698
40 Washington 0.5667
41 Michigan 0.5666
42 Hawai`i 0.5649
43 Penn state 0.5624
44 UCLA 0.5610
45 California 0.5580
46 Temple 0.5450
47 Northern Illinois 0.5369
48 San Diego st 0.5367
49 Kentucky 0.5292
50 Colorado 0.5291
51 Maryland 0.5241
52 Northwestern 0.5234
53 Pittsburgh 0.5216
54 Brigham Young 0.5214
55 Arizona St 0.5192
56 Syracuse 0.5172
57 Georgia 0.5141
58 Georgia Tech 0.5080
59 Tulsa 0.5050
60 Toledo 0.5049
61 Clemson 0.5047
62 Navy 0.5033
63 West Virginia 0.5010
64 Mississippi 0.4940
65 Notre Dame 0.4892
66 Fresno st 0.4890
67 Indiana 0.4884
68 SMU 0.4849
69 Tennessee 0.4812
70 Virginia 0.4773
71 South Florida 0.4759
72 Houston 0.4751
73 Army 0.4655
74 Purdue 0.4645
75 Boston College 0.4571
76 Southern Miss 0.4541
77 Wyoming 0.4520
78 Cincinnati 0.4491
79 Louisville 0.4407
80 Connecticut 0.4399
81 Rutgers 0.4394
82 Ohio U. 0.4372
83 Kansas 0.4336
84 Miami OH 0.4273
85 Utah st 0.4258
86 Vanderbilt 0.4225
87 Duke 0.4115
88 Colorado st 0.4113
89 Troy 0.4106
90 Louisiana Tech 0.4069
91 Wake Forest 0.4052
92 Minnesota 0.3993
93 Kent st 0.3987
94 Washington st 0.3954
95 Idaho 0.3941
96 Tulane 0.3836
97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3830
98 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3778
99 Western Michigan 0.3775
100 Buffalo 0.3757
101 Rice 0.3709
102 UNLV 0.3567
103 Marshall 0.3557
104 San José St 0.3442
105 Arkansas St 0.3332
106 Middle Tennessee St 0.3262
107 UTEP 0.3129
108 Florida Int'l 0.3121
109 Bowling Green 0.3095
110 New Mexico st 0.2979
111 aa 0.2957
112 Memphis 0.2940
113 Florida Atlantic 0.2761
114 Central Michigan 0.2726
115 Akron 0.2666
116 Ball St 0.2626
117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2608
118 Eastern Michigan 0.2441
119 New Mexico 0.2428
120 Western Kentucky 0.2312
121 North Texas 0.2219
1 Oklahoma 0.7497
2 Auburn 0.7456
3 TCU 0.7439
4 Nebraska 0.7349
5 Missouri 0.7259
6 Arizona 0.6997
7 LSU 0.6964
8 Oregon 0.6941
9 Boise st 0.6901
10 Stanford 0.6888
11 Oklahoma st 0.6845
12 Iowa 0.6826
13 Wisconsin 0.6785
14 Michigan st 0.6784
15 Utah 0.6774
16 Baylor 0.6646
17 Alabama 0.6598
18 Ohio state 0.6537
19 Mississippi st 0.6520
20 Iowa st 0.6424
21 North Carolina St 0.6378
22 Texas 0.6351
23 Kansas st 0.6337
24 Virginia Tech 0.6328
25 Oregon st 0.6287
26 Arkansas 0.6239
27 Florida st 0.6216
28 South Carolina 0.6156
29 Florida 0.6000
30 Texas Tech 0.5975
31 East Carolina 0.5941
32 Central Florida 0.5905
33 Southern Cal 0.5888
34 Texas A&M 0.5874
35 Illinois 0.5839
36 Nevada 0.5831
37 Air Force 0.5827
38 Miami FL 0.5790
39 North Carolina 0.5698
40 Washington 0.5667
41 Michigan 0.5666
42 Hawai`i 0.5649
43 Penn state 0.5624
44 UCLA 0.5610
45 California 0.5580
46 Temple 0.5450
47 Northern Illinois 0.5369
48 San Diego st 0.5367
49 Kentucky 0.5292
50 Colorado 0.5291
51 Maryland 0.5241
52 Northwestern 0.5234
53 Pittsburgh 0.5216
54 Brigham Young 0.5214
55 Arizona St 0.5192
56 Syracuse 0.5172
57 Georgia 0.5141
58 Georgia Tech 0.5080
59 Tulsa 0.5050
60 Toledo 0.5049
61 Clemson 0.5047
62 Navy 0.5033
63 West Virginia 0.5010
64 Mississippi 0.4940
65 Notre Dame 0.4892
66 Fresno st 0.4890
67 Indiana 0.4884
68 SMU 0.4849
69 Tennessee 0.4812
70 Virginia 0.4773
71 South Florida 0.4759
72 Houston 0.4751
73 Army 0.4655
74 Purdue 0.4645
75 Boston College 0.4571
76 Southern Miss 0.4541
77 Wyoming 0.4520
78 Cincinnati 0.4491
79 Louisville 0.4407
80 Connecticut 0.4399
81 Rutgers 0.4394
82 Ohio U. 0.4372
83 Kansas 0.4336
84 Miami OH 0.4273
85 Utah st 0.4258
86 Vanderbilt 0.4225
87 Duke 0.4115
88 Colorado st 0.4113
89 Troy 0.4106
90 Louisiana Tech 0.4069
91 Wake Forest 0.4052
92 Minnesota 0.3993
93 Kent st 0.3987
94 Washington st 0.3954
95 Idaho 0.3941
96 Tulane 0.3836
97 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3830
98 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3778
99 Western Michigan 0.3775
100 Buffalo 0.3757
101 Rice 0.3709
102 UNLV 0.3567
103 Marshall 0.3557
104 San José St 0.3442
105 Arkansas St 0.3332
106 Middle Tennessee St 0.3262
107 UTEP 0.3129
108 Florida Int'l 0.3121
109 Bowling Green 0.3095
110 New Mexico st 0.2979
111 aa 0.2957
112 Memphis 0.2940
113 Florida Atlantic 0.2761
114 Central Michigan 0.2726
115 Akron 0.2666
116 Ball St 0.2626
117 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2608
118 Eastern Michigan 0.2441
119 New Mexico 0.2428
120 Western Kentucky 0.2312
121 North Texas 0.2219
Sunday, 24 October 2010
Week 8 rankings
Here they are.
Despite Oklahomas loss to Missouri it only drops one place and it is only narrowly behind Auburn. The reason for this is that a loss to an undefeated team does very little damage to a team.
It will be interesting to see what the other systems say.
Alabama's victory over Tennessee (no.70) doesn't help it much neither does Oregon beating No.50 UCLA also doesnt help much.
Boise's weak schedule is still hurting it although being on a bye week also doesn't help.
1 Auburn 0.7131
2 Oklahoma 0.7130
3 Missouri 0.7083
4 TCU 0.7016
5 LSU 0.6664
6 Michigan st 0.6656
7 Wisconsin 0.6457
8 Nebraska 0.6416
9 Arizona 0.6342
10 Boise st 0.6339
11 Oregon 0.6317
12 Stanford 0.6283
13 Ohio state 0.6222
14 Utah 0.6216
15 Alabama 0.6160
16 Baylor 0.6114
17 Iowa st 0.6104
18 Kansas st 0.6097
19 Mississippi st 0.6090
20 Texas 0.6081
21 Oklahoma st 0.6054
22 Florida st 0.6047
23 Iowa 0.6012
24 Miami FL 0.5952
25 South Carolina 0.5942
26 Arkansas 0.5865
27 Texas Tech 0.5842
28 Air Force 0.5768
29 Virginia Tech 0.5711
30 Nevada 0.5709
31 Oregon st 0.5676
32 Southern Cal 0.5671
33 California 0.5659
34 East Carolina 0.5657
35 Florida 0.5652
36 North Carolina St 0.5627
37 Hawai`i 0.5588
38 Michigan 0.5580
39 Illinois 0.5568
40 North Carolina 0.5564
41 UCLA 0.5553
42 Navy 0.5499
43 Washington 0.5416
44 Colorado 0.5399
45 Clemson 0.5391
46 West Virginia 0.5347
47 San Diego st 0.5319
48 Pittsburgh 0.5303
49 Notre Dame 0.5302
50 Texas A&M 0.5295
51 Maryland 0.5270
52 Central Florida 0.5267
53 Brigham Young 0.5259
54 Northwestern 0.5248
55 Northern Illinois 0.5247
56 Southern Miss 0.5240
57 Kentucky 0.5210
58 Georgia 0.5191
59 Penn state 0.5179
60 Temple 0.5173
61 Arizona St 0.5137
62 Georgia Tech 0.5108
63 Indiana 0.5093
64 Syracuse 0.5059
65 Toledo 0.5004
66 Mississippi 0.4982
67 Purdue 0.4927
68 Fresno st 0.4902
69 South Florida 0.4892
70 Tennessee 0.4790
71 Tulsa 0.4783
72 SMU 0.4764
73 Cincinnati 0.4726
74 Houston 0.4718
75 Wyoming 0.4690
76 Kansas 0.4644
77 Louisiana Tech 0.4643
78 Louisville 0.4586
79 Boston College 0.4547
80 Utah st 0.4541
81 Troy 0.4520
82 Army 0.4504
83 Rutgers 0.4504
84 Wake Forest 0.4469
85 Vanderbilt 0.4423
86 Virginia 0.4418
87 Miami OH 0.4379
88 Ohio U. 0.4338
89 Idaho 0.4294
90 Florida Int'l 0.4294
91 San José St 0.4293
92 Western Michigan 0.4267
93 Connecticut 0.4260
94 Colorado st 0.4220
95 Washington st 0.4199
96 Tulane 0.4155
97 Minnesota 0.4141
98 Buffalo 0.4123
99 Kent st 0.4066
100 Duke 0.4032
101 Rice 0.4005
102 UNLV 0.3912
103 UTEP 0.3784
104 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3771
105 Marshall 0.3767
106 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3732
107 Arkansas St 0.3698
108 Memphis 0.3664
109 Middle Tennessee St 0.3615
110 Central Michigan 0.3562
111 Western Kentucky 0.3512
112 aa 0.3496
113 New Mexico st 0.3342
114 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.3332
115 Bowling Green 0.3275
116 Ball St 0.3211
117 Akron 0.3020
118 New Mexico 0.3005
119 Florida Atlantic 0.2957
120 Eastern Michigan 0.2920
121 North Texas 0.2721
Despite Oklahomas loss to Missouri it only drops one place and it is only narrowly behind Auburn. The reason for this is that a loss to an undefeated team does very little damage to a team.
It will be interesting to see what the other systems say.
Alabama's victory over Tennessee (no.70) doesn't help it much neither does Oregon beating No.50 UCLA also doesnt help much.
Boise's weak schedule is still hurting it although being on a bye week also doesn't help.
1 Auburn 0.7131
2 Oklahoma 0.7130
3 Missouri 0.7083
4 TCU 0.7016
5 LSU 0.6664
6 Michigan st 0.6656
7 Wisconsin 0.6457
8 Nebraska 0.6416
9 Arizona 0.6342
10 Boise st 0.6339
11 Oregon 0.6317
12 Stanford 0.6283
13 Ohio state 0.6222
14 Utah 0.6216
15 Alabama 0.6160
16 Baylor 0.6114
17 Iowa st 0.6104
18 Kansas st 0.6097
19 Mississippi st 0.6090
20 Texas 0.6081
21 Oklahoma st 0.6054
22 Florida st 0.6047
23 Iowa 0.6012
24 Miami FL 0.5952
25 South Carolina 0.5942
26 Arkansas 0.5865
27 Texas Tech 0.5842
28 Air Force 0.5768
29 Virginia Tech 0.5711
30 Nevada 0.5709
31 Oregon st 0.5676
32 Southern Cal 0.5671
33 California 0.5659
34 East Carolina 0.5657
35 Florida 0.5652
36 North Carolina St 0.5627
37 Hawai`i 0.5588
38 Michigan 0.5580
39 Illinois 0.5568
40 North Carolina 0.5564
41 UCLA 0.5553
42 Navy 0.5499
43 Washington 0.5416
44 Colorado 0.5399
45 Clemson 0.5391
46 West Virginia 0.5347
47 San Diego st 0.5319
48 Pittsburgh 0.5303
49 Notre Dame 0.5302
50 Texas A&M 0.5295
51 Maryland 0.5270
52 Central Florida 0.5267
53 Brigham Young 0.5259
54 Northwestern 0.5248
55 Northern Illinois 0.5247
56 Southern Miss 0.5240
57 Kentucky 0.5210
58 Georgia 0.5191
59 Penn state 0.5179
60 Temple 0.5173
61 Arizona St 0.5137
62 Georgia Tech 0.5108
63 Indiana 0.5093
64 Syracuse 0.5059
65 Toledo 0.5004
66 Mississippi 0.4982
67 Purdue 0.4927
68 Fresno st 0.4902
69 South Florida 0.4892
70 Tennessee 0.4790
71 Tulsa 0.4783
72 SMU 0.4764
73 Cincinnati 0.4726
74 Houston 0.4718
75 Wyoming 0.4690
76 Kansas 0.4644
77 Louisiana Tech 0.4643
78 Louisville 0.4586
79 Boston College 0.4547
80 Utah st 0.4541
81 Troy 0.4520
82 Army 0.4504
83 Rutgers 0.4504
84 Wake Forest 0.4469
85 Vanderbilt 0.4423
86 Virginia 0.4418
87 Miami OH 0.4379
88 Ohio U. 0.4338
89 Idaho 0.4294
90 Florida Int'l 0.4294
91 San José St 0.4293
92 Western Michigan 0.4267
93 Connecticut 0.4260
94 Colorado st 0.4220
95 Washington st 0.4199
96 Tulane 0.4155
97 Minnesota 0.4141
98 Buffalo 0.4123
99 Kent st 0.4066
100 Duke 0.4032
101 Rice 0.4005
102 UNLV 0.3912
103 UTEP 0.3784
104 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3771
105 Marshall 0.3767
106 Alabama-Birmingham 0.3732
107 Arkansas St 0.3698
108 Memphis 0.3664
109 Middle Tennessee St 0.3615
110 Central Michigan 0.3562
111 Western Kentucky 0.3512
112 aa 0.3496
113 New Mexico st 0.3342
114 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.3332
115 Bowling Green 0.3275
116 Ball St 0.3211
117 Akron 0.3020
118 New Mexico 0.3005
119 Florida Atlantic 0.2957
120 Eastern Michigan 0.2920
121 North Texas 0.2721
Sunday, 17 October 2010
Week 7 rankings
Here are the rankings.
Oklahoma are now number 1 with LSU in 2nd place. The rating is the averaged probability that the team in question is better than each of the other 120 teams. The difference between the top and bottom teams will increase as the season progresses as there will be more data to link and therefore differentiate between the teams as every team starts as .500 at the start of the season.
FCS teams are represented by a single super-team termed "aa".
Rank Team Rating
1 Oklahoma 0.645
2 LSU 0.634
3 TCU 0.631
4 Auburn 0.628
5 Michigan st 0.611
6 Boise st 0.606
7 Missouri 0.600
8 Stanford 0.593
9 Oregon 0.580
10 Oklahoma st 0.579
11 Kansas st 0.579
12 Alabama 0.579
13 Nebraska 0.577
14 Texas 0.571
15 Mississippi st 0.569
16 Arizona 0.569
17 South Carolina 0.568
18 Wisconsin 0.568
19 Iowa 0.561
20 Utah 0.560
21 Ohio state 0.559
22 Florida st 0.556
23 Virginia Tech 0.556
24 Baylor 0.553
25 East Carolina 0.552
26 Air Force 0.551
27 North Carolina 0.549
28 North Carolina St 0.549
29 Nevada 0.547
30 Florida 0.546
31 Michigan 0.545
32 Southern Cal 0.544
33 West Virginia 0.541
34 Hawai`i 0.541
35 Oregon st 0.538
36 Iowa st 0.537
37 Texas Tech 0.536
38 Arkansas 0.534
39 Colorado 0.531
40 Illinois 0.531
41 UCLA 0.530
42 California 0.529
43 Notre Dame 0.528
44 Washington 0.527
45 Northwestern 0.527
46 Kentucky 0.524
47 Miami FL 0.523
48 Navy 0.522
49 Southern Miss 0.522
50 San Diego st 0.521
51 Georgia Tech 0.520
52 Arizona St 0.519
53 Northern Illinois 0.518
54 Maryland 0.517
55 Central Florida 0.517
56 SMU 0.512
57 Texas A&M 0.512
58 Temple 0.510
59 Brigham Young 0.507
60 Purdue 0.507
61 Clemson 0.507
62 Toledo 0.506
63 Indiana 0.506
64 Penn state 0.506
65 Mississippi 0.502
66 Pittsburgh 0.500
67 Georgia 0.498
68 Wyoming 0.497
69 Cincinnati 0.497
70 Fresno st 0.496
71 Tulsa 0.495
72 Miami OH 0.490
73 Tennessee 0.488
74 Kansas 0.482
75 Rutgers 0.482
76 South Florida 0.481
77 Boston College 0.479
78 Syracuse 0.478
79 Connecticut 0.477
80 Troy 0.477
81 Vanderbilt 0.474
82 Houston 0.472
83 Louisiana Tech 0.471
84 Utah st 0.470
85 Louisville 0.468
86 Army 0.466
87 Wake Forest 0.464
88 San José St 0.461
89 Virginia 0.461
90 Louisiana-Monroe 0.460
91 Colorado st 0.457
92 Ohio U. 0.453
93 Buffalo 0.451
94 UTEP 0.450
95 Florida Int'l 0.449
96 Idaho 0.449
97 Western Michigan 0.448
98 Washington st 0.446
99 Rice 0.446
100 Kent st 0.440
101 Minnesota 0.438
102 Tulane 0.434
103 Alabama-Birmingham 0.430
104 Duke 0.428
105 Marshall 0.428
106 UNLV 0.426
107 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.418
108 Arkansas St 0.416
109 Central Michigan 0.414
110 Memphis 0.413
111 New Mexico st 0.410
112 aa 0.402
113 Middle Tennessee St 0.400
114 Bowling Green 0.398
115 Western Kentucky 0.394
116 Florida Atlantic 0.393
117 Ball St 0.385
118 New Mexico 0.373
119 Eastern Michigan 0.371
120 Akron 0.368
121 North Texas 0.337
Oklahoma are now number 1 with LSU in 2nd place. The rating is the averaged probability that the team in question is better than each of the other 120 teams. The difference between the top and bottom teams will increase as the season progresses as there will be more data to link and therefore differentiate between the teams as every team starts as .500 at the start of the season.
FCS teams are represented by a single super-team termed "aa".
Rank Team Rating
1 Oklahoma 0.645
2 LSU 0.634
3 TCU 0.631
4 Auburn 0.628
5 Michigan st 0.611
6 Boise st 0.606
7 Missouri 0.600
8 Stanford 0.593
9 Oregon 0.580
10 Oklahoma st 0.579
11 Kansas st 0.579
12 Alabama 0.579
13 Nebraska 0.577
14 Texas 0.571
15 Mississippi st 0.569
16 Arizona 0.569
17 South Carolina 0.568
18 Wisconsin 0.568
19 Iowa 0.561
20 Utah 0.560
21 Ohio state 0.559
22 Florida st 0.556
23 Virginia Tech 0.556
24 Baylor 0.553
25 East Carolina 0.552
26 Air Force 0.551
27 North Carolina 0.549
28 North Carolina St 0.549
29 Nevada 0.547
30 Florida 0.546
31 Michigan 0.545
32 Southern Cal 0.544
33 West Virginia 0.541
34 Hawai`i 0.541
35 Oregon st 0.538
36 Iowa st 0.537
37 Texas Tech 0.536
38 Arkansas 0.534
39 Colorado 0.531
40 Illinois 0.531
41 UCLA 0.530
42 California 0.529
43 Notre Dame 0.528
44 Washington 0.527
45 Northwestern 0.527
46 Kentucky 0.524
47 Miami FL 0.523
48 Navy 0.522
49 Southern Miss 0.522
50 San Diego st 0.521
51 Georgia Tech 0.520
52 Arizona St 0.519
53 Northern Illinois 0.518
54 Maryland 0.517
55 Central Florida 0.517
56 SMU 0.512
57 Texas A&M 0.512
58 Temple 0.510
59 Brigham Young 0.507
60 Purdue 0.507
61 Clemson 0.507
62 Toledo 0.506
63 Indiana 0.506
64 Penn state 0.506
65 Mississippi 0.502
66 Pittsburgh 0.500
67 Georgia 0.498
68 Wyoming 0.497
69 Cincinnati 0.497
70 Fresno st 0.496
71 Tulsa 0.495
72 Miami OH 0.490
73 Tennessee 0.488
74 Kansas 0.482
75 Rutgers 0.482
76 South Florida 0.481
77 Boston College 0.479
78 Syracuse 0.478
79 Connecticut 0.477
80 Troy 0.477
81 Vanderbilt 0.474
82 Houston 0.472
83 Louisiana Tech 0.471
84 Utah st 0.470
85 Louisville 0.468
86 Army 0.466
87 Wake Forest 0.464
88 San José St 0.461
89 Virginia 0.461
90 Louisiana-Monroe 0.460
91 Colorado st 0.457
92 Ohio U. 0.453
93 Buffalo 0.451
94 UTEP 0.450
95 Florida Int'l 0.449
96 Idaho 0.449
97 Western Michigan 0.448
98 Washington st 0.446
99 Rice 0.446
100 Kent st 0.440
101 Minnesota 0.438
102 Tulane 0.434
103 Alabama-Birmingham 0.430
104 Duke 0.428
105 Marshall 0.428
106 UNLV 0.426
107 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.418
108 Arkansas St 0.416
109 Central Michigan 0.414
110 Memphis 0.413
111 New Mexico st 0.410
112 aa 0.402
113 Middle Tennessee St 0.400
114 Bowling Green 0.398
115 Western Kentucky 0.394
116 Florida Atlantic 0.393
117 Ball St 0.385
118 New Mexico 0.373
119 Eastern Michigan 0.371
120 Akron 0.368
121 North Texas 0.337
Friday, 15 October 2010
Corrected week 6 rankings
I have adjusted how the ranking system treats games against FCS teams as initially they were counting for far more than a game against an FBS team.
The weighting given to these games when calculating secondary wins and losses is now equal to the average number of games played by FBS teams divided by the number of games FCS have played. So as the average number of games played is just under 6 but 81 games against FCS teams have been played the weighting is ~6/81 =.07. Or in other words my original system was making a win or loss against a FCS count 14 times as much as an ordinary game when secondary and higher level wins and losses are being calculated.
This has dramatically changed some teams rankings as Virginia Tech have jumped from 112 to 25th compared with the Massey consensus of 24th. Nth Carolina State from 66th to 23rd (Massey Consensus 25th)
Boise have jumped to second, TCU have dropped to third and LSU are now first.
The correlation to the massey consensus is now a respectable .961 which is 33rd best out of the 119 systems whereas previously I was in last place when you excluded the polls. So I think this adjustment has corrected the large and difficult to justify discrepencies in the original version.
So hopefully next week my rankings will not annoy Josh as much.
Looking at the correlation between my rankings and the others the closest correlation is to the rankings of Hatch and of Wobus (correlation of 0.98). Although these are two quite different systems and my system isn't like either although it may be closer to Wobus.
JMC
The weighting given to these games when calculating secondary wins and losses is now equal to the average number of games played by FBS teams divided by the number of games FCS have played. So as the average number of games played is just under 6 but 81 games against FCS teams have been played the weighting is ~6/81 =.07. Or in other words my original system was making a win or loss against a FCS count 14 times as much as an ordinary game when secondary and higher level wins and losses are being calculated.
This has dramatically changed some teams rankings as Virginia Tech have jumped from 112 to 25th compared with the Massey consensus of 24th. Nth Carolina State from 66th to 23rd (Massey Consensus 25th)
Boise have jumped to second, TCU have dropped to third and LSU are now first.
The correlation to the massey consensus is now a respectable .961 which is 33rd best out of the 119 systems whereas previously I was in last place when you excluded the polls. So I think this adjustment has corrected the large and difficult to justify discrepencies in the original version.
So hopefully next week my rankings will not annoy Josh as much.
Looking at the correlation between my rankings and the others the closest correlation is to the rankings of Hatch and of Wobus (correlation of 0.98). Although these are two quite different systems and my system isn't like either although it may be closer to Wobus.
JMC
Sunday, 10 October 2010
Week 6 NCAA football rankings using Noahchain
Here are the first rankings of the college football season.
Well done TCU and LSU who would be in the national chanpionship game if the season ended today and my rankings were used.
1 TCU
2 LSU
3 Oklahoma
4 Michigan st
5 Oregon
6 Auburn
7 Boise st
8 Stanford
9 Nebraska
10 Missouri
11 Arizona
12 South Carolina
13 Alabama
14 Kansas st
15 Nevada
16 Air Force
17 Florida st
18 Oregon st
19 Ohio state
20 Iowa
21 Michigan
22 Oklahoma st
23 Illinois
24 California
25 Wisconsin
26 Arkansas
27 Mississippi st
28 Iowa st
29 West Virginia
30 Utah
31 Arizona St
32 Maryland
33 Hawai`i
34 Temple
35 Penn state
36 Colorado
37 Navy
38 Florida
39 Northern Illinois
40 UCLA
41 Notre Dame
42 Houston
43 Miami FL
44 Southern Cal
45 Northwestern
46 Baylor
47 Purdue
48 Syracuse
49 Toledo
50 Texas A&M
51 Texas
52 Wyoming
53 Texas Tech
54 UTEP
55 SMU
56 Washington
57 Indiana
58 Idaho
59 San Diego st
60 South Florida
61 Pittsburgh
62 Tennessee
63 Army
64 Western Michigan
65 Georgia
66 Connecticut
67 Brigham Young
68 Southern Miss
69 Louisiana Tech
70 Clemson
71 Troy
72 Washington st
73 Louisiana-Monroe
74 Vanderbilt
75 Ohio U.
76 Central Florida
77 Colorado st
78 North Carolina
79 Buffalo
80 Louisville
81 Miami OH
82 UNLV
83 Duke
84 Tulsa
85 Virginia
86 Rice
87 North Carolina St
88 Rutgers
89 Utah st
90 Wake Forest
91 Marshall
92 Florida Int'l
93 Arkansas St
94 Alabama-Birmingham
95 Florida Atlantic
96 Cincinnati
97 Kent st
98 Bowling Green
99 Louisiana-Lafayette
100 Fresno st
101 Georgia Tech
102 East Carolina
103 Tulane
104 Memphis
105 Western Kentucky
106 New Mexico
107 North Texas
108 Kentucky
109 Boston College
110 Middle Tennessee St
111 New Mexico st
112 Virginia Tech
113 Eastern Michigan
114 Mississippi
115 Central Michigan
116 Ball St
117 Kansas
118 San José St
119 Minnesota
120 aa
121 Akron
Well done TCU and LSU who would be in the national chanpionship game if the season ended today and my rankings were used.
1 TCU
2 LSU
3 Oklahoma
4 Michigan st
5 Oregon
6 Auburn
7 Boise st
8 Stanford
9 Nebraska
10 Missouri
11 Arizona
12 South Carolina
13 Alabama
14 Kansas st
15 Nevada
16 Air Force
17 Florida st
18 Oregon st
19 Ohio state
20 Iowa
21 Michigan
22 Oklahoma st
23 Illinois
24 California
25 Wisconsin
26 Arkansas
27 Mississippi st
28 Iowa st
29 West Virginia
30 Utah
31 Arizona St
32 Maryland
33 Hawai`i
34 Temple
35 Penn state
36 Colorado
37 Navy
38 Florida
39 Northern Illinois
40 UCLA
41 Notre Dame
42 Houston
43 Miami FL
44 Southern Cal
45 Northwestern
46 Baylor
47 Purdue
48 Syracuse
49 Toledo
50 Texas A&M
51 Texas
52 Wyoming
53 Texas Tech
54 UTEP
55 SMU
56 Washington
57 Indiana
58 Idaho
59 San Diego st
60 South Florida
61 Pittsburgh
62 Tennessee
63 Army
64 Western Michigan
65 Georgia
66 Connecticut
67 Brigham Young
68 Southern Miss
69 Louisiana Tech
70 Clemson
71 Troy
72 Washington st
73 Louisiana-Monroe
74 Vanderbilt
75 Ohio U.
76 Central Florida
77 Colorado st
78 North Carolina
79 Buffalo
80 Louisville
81 Miami OH
82 UNLV
83 Duke
84 Tulsa
85 Virginia
86 Rice
87 North Carolina St
88 Rutgers
89 Utah st
90 Wake Forest
91 Marshall
92 Florida Int'l
93 Arkansas St
94 Alabama-Birmingham
95 Florida Atlantic
96 Cincinnati
97 Kent st
98 Bowling Green
99 Louisiana-Lafayette
100 Fresno st
101 Georgia Tech
102 East Carolina
103 Tulane
104 Memphis
105 Western Kentucky
106 New Mexico
107 North Texas
108 Kentucky
109 Boston College
110 Middle Tennessee St
111 New Mexico st
112 Virginia Tech
113 Eastern Michigan
114 Mississippi
115 Central Michigan
116 Ball St
117 Kansas
118 San José St
119 Minnesota
120 aa
121 Akron
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